June 2026

[winterwarlock]

92/67/100

 

10th 90 plus of year but not a heatwave as yesterday only got to 89. Have only 1 3 day heatwave thus far

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Looking like some pretty crazy dynamics later according to latest HRRR

I can remember some night squall lines just like that back in the 90s.


.

[TJW014]

Anything that will have the potential to be severe needs to pop off between now and sunset. "Squall" line comes in too late. 

Sea breeze storm euthanasia is well inland here. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Mr. T. said:

Looking like some pretty crazy dynamics later according to latest HRRR

Falls apart next frame 

[qg_omega]

Hrrrrrrrrrrr

 

3k NAM

 

nothing looks impressive atm, timing is really bad

[WestBabylonWeather]

Hopefully it makes it to LI

[donsutherland1]

Showers and thundershowers are likely thie evening and tonight as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe, bringing strong winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of the week. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer.

The SOI was -24.88 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.712 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.3 (2.3° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the eighth warmest June on record with 1925, 1957, and 2021.

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

that's more than the entirety of some of our cooler summers

Yes. That's true. With the warming climate, this year's mark will probably fall in the not too distant future.

[steve392]

Residents along the great lakes 8n upstate NY just getting hammered by all that training rain. 

[NEG NAO]

17 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Residents along the great lakes 8n upstate NY just getting hammered by all that training rain. 

That line of shower/storms is still 8 hours from here - are we going to have a rude awakening at 2 AM ?

[Snowlover11]

PA getting hammered 

[Stormlover74]

28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

That line of shower/storms is still 8 hours from here - are we going to have a rude awakening at 2 AM ?

Between 10 and 11 according to the hrrr

[IrishRob17]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1146.html

Mesoscale Discussion 1146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

   Valid 142222Z - 150015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The damaging-wind threat may increase into this evening.
   Additional watch issuance is probable.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing early this
   evening from south-central VA into western MD and eastern PA.
   Moderate buoyancy resides across parts of VA/MD, within a very
   warm/moist environment, while continued low-level moisture transport
   may allow for some additional destabilization with time into NJ and
   eastern PA. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support
   potential for organized convection, and an increase in storm
   coverage is expected as a midlevel shortwave trough approaches the
   region from the Ohio Valley. 

   Ongoing semi-discrete convection will pose a threat of damaging wind
   and perhaps marginal hail, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.
   The anticipated increase in storm coverage could lead to modest
   upscale growth and one or more localized swaths of damaging wind
   through the evening. Additional watch issuance is probable to the
   northeast of WW 335 in response to these threats.

[Stormlover74]

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

very uncertain on exactly what will happen in eastern most NJ and NYC and points east - STAY TUNED ! Late poor timing of the front is to blame IMO

[Mr. T.]

Yeah, looks like it's coming in later (or shall see). Well...hope we at least get some rain.

[Picard]

That area from Erie to Buffalo over toward the finger lakes and up into Canada has got to be in a surplus of rainfall.  That area is always getting something.  Anyone have rainfall maps that show wet areas as well as dry?