May 2026

[uofmiami]

Gusted to 33mph in Syosset & 32mph in Muttontown so far.

[TJW014]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Free skin exfoliation promo at the beach. Peak gust of 47. Pretty significant uptick over the last hour

I was just talking with the head jones beach life gaurd and we were saying what miserable experience it would be if we were open. I can’t imagine what it’s like down there right now. These events are so localized that it could be gusting over 50 right on beach.


.

[lee59]

Wind has died down to a more reasonable level, short lived but intense wind event.

[Stormlover74]

Still pretty gusty here

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Good thread

https://x.com/i/status/2054544214952665366

 

 

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

[FPizz]

17 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I agree.  This past winter the new model i thought was horrendous 

Certainly not worthy of any awards....that's for sure.

[Stormlover74]

Tuesday looks like a scorcher

[donsutherland1]

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s to perhaps near 90° on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will turn much cooler after midweek.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks.

The SOI was -11.78 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.054 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[nj08822]

Pretty impressive storm w heavy rain here in Eastern PA.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, nj08822 said:

Pretty impressive storm w heavy rain here in Eastern PA.

The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....

Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here. 

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, MANDA said:

Nice explanation from him but even he seems a bit uncertain about the transition.  I think they should have left the older models (at least the NAMS) in place and let them run operationally for another year alongside the RRFS.  He thinks the V2.0 will be an improvement but who knows when that will be available operationally.  

Will be interesting once the older models disappear to see how things shake out.  I'm personally still going to miss the NAMS in winter events since it handled low level thermals better than any other model, IMO.

While the NAM often had unrealistic precipitation amounts especially since it wasn’t upgraded in almost 10 years, it did do much better than other models with the warm nose at 700mb to 800mb and snow to mix precipitation timing.

So we may just have to compensate for this by manually speeding up the snow to mix precipitation timing in situations which the other models are too weak with the 700-800 MB WAA.

The other story is that the SPC HREF was one of the best models showing snow banding and extreme heavy precipitation amounts. It did very well with the late February KU  and several flash flooding events over the years. 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here. 

a couple of small puddles here probably less than a tenth here,.Precip on radar mainly from extreme eastern NJ and points east. patches of blue sky approaching from the west on the Satellite images and observed here in north central NJ

[SACRUS]

56 / 54 showers moving through. Upper low , closed off trough moving though the next 36 hours - unsettled and cooler. Some breaks of sun here and there scattered rain / light rain and showers. Clearing late Fri as trough moves through and out and a quick moderation to warm - hot 5/16 - 5/20 >80 and some 90s possible Sun - Tue.   Next front come through Wed night with a brief cooldown.  Memorial day week may be split with front moving though and warm/dry  2 of 4 days Fri -Sat / Sun / mon - we'll need to see otherwise ridge into the east and overall warmer than normal beyond there.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

upton's forecast is basically an all day rainout-yet most places won't see all that much of anything

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:   -- Coolest record highs of the month

EWR: 86 (1991) 
NYC: 88 (1900)
LGA: 84 (1991)
JFK: 87 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 36 (1939)
NYC: 40 (1878)
LGA: 44 (2019)
JFK: 39 (1987)


Historical:

1686: The inventor of the thermometer Gabriel Fahrenheit was born.

 

1834: The greatest May snowstorm on record for New England occurred. The hills around Newbury, VT were covered with up to 24 inches of snow and the higher elevations around Haverhill, NH received up to three feet of snow.

1886: 43 people were killed as a tornado ripped through Anderson, IN. An F4 twister touched down two miles north of Redkey, IN and lifted five miles north of Celina, OH. Six people were killed, five of them in leveled homes northwest of Celina. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1896 - The mercury plunged to 10 degrees below zero at Climax, CO. It was the lowest reading of record for the U.S. during the month of May. (David Ludlum)

1898 - A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)

1923: An early morning violent F5 tornado cut a 45 mile path of destruction through Howard and Mitchell counties in Texas. 23 people lost their lives and 250 sustained injuries. The path width of the tornado reached 1.5 miles at one point and entire farms were "wiped off the face of the earth". (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1928: Record minimum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 41 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1956: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 93 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

 

1985: Severe thunderstorms developed in DeWitt County, located between Bloomington and Decatur, and moved northward. The storms produced a wind gust of 73 mph at the Bloomington airport. In the Marshall County town of Wenona, winds up to 100 mph destroyed several barns and farm buildings. LaSalle County had 2 inch diameter hail and 60 mph winds; in Mendota, nearly every building in town sustained some damage.

 

1987 - Seven cities across the western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as unseasonably hot weather made a comeback. The record high of 103 degrees at Sacramento CA was their ninth in eleven days, and also marked a record seven days of 100 degree heat for the month. Their previous record was two days of 100 degree heat in May. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Sunny and dry weather prevailed across the nation. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the Great Plains Region and the Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced severe weather in south central Texas and the Southern High Plains Region during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced softball size hail at Spearman and Hitchcock, TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwest Texas to western Missouri. Severe thunderstorms spawned seventeen tornadoes, including nine in Texas. Four tornadoes in Texas injured a total of nine persons. Thunderstorms in Texas also produced hail four inches in diameter at Shamrock, and hail four and a half inches in diameter near Guthrie. Thunderstorms over northeastern Kansas produced more than seven inches of rain in Chautauqua County between 9 PM and midnight. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1991: Baseball size hail damaged cars, broke windows and skylights, and did extensive roof damage at Knox City, TX. A tornado was sighted eight miles west of Knox City. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1998: A severe thunderstorm, with some hailstones up to 9.5 inches in circumference, pounded a four mile wide path across Kansas City, MO. South-facing windows were broken in nearly every house in central and eastern parts of the city, and several persons were injured. An even larger hailstone was thought to have been found, but it turned out to be a chunk of ice tossed out the window of a building by a prankster. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2018: A strong thunderstorm yesterday rated 4-5-2 with winds to 47 mph and a long period of lightning but only 0.44 inches of rain. Yesterday was also the second hottest day of 2018 so far. This is the highest wind ever recorded at the Glen Allen in the month of May. The radar showed a bow echo as the storm approach the Glen Allen Station and the wind and rain preceded the lightning by around 10 to 15 minutes.

[SACRUS]

Dry ends  / wet mid section

[Picard]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

upton's forecast is basically an all day rainout-yet most places won't see all that much of anything

NWS on their morning X post seems to have conceded that there will be little to no rain into early next week.  

[doncat]

0.04" yikes.

[FPizz]

0.05"

[NEG NAO]

39 minutes ago, Picard said:

NWS on their morning X post seems to have conceded that there will be little to no rain into early next week.  

and that strong late spring sun and hot temps will dry things out further worsening the drought - moderate to severe in many places already.....

[MANDA]

 A paltry .07" here.  Yet another event that looked decent 3-4 days out only to dwindle at go time.  

Top soils are barely ok but will dry out very quickly with any stretch of sunny,  very wam to hot weather.  Long term dryness persists.  It has gotten better over the last 4-6 weeks but could easily go in the other direction fast if we don't get meaningful rain.  Southeast really taking it on the chin.  We'll see if that persistently dry area hangs on and/or expands over the next few months.   It could make an upper ridge want to hold on as the Summer takes hold.

 

[gravitylover]

As I'm working around the garden it's dry 3-4" down. It's a good thing my well is as deep as it is, I pull from the aquifer at NYC reservoir level below me.

[bluewave]

At least we are doing better than areas just to our south. Through May 14th Philly is having their 4th driest March 1st through May 13th.

The drought should help boost the high temperatures in the usual warm spots next week.

Pretty impressive to see the GFS, Euro, and CMC all showing 95+ potential for the usual warm spots. 
 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Driest March 1 to May 13
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1926-05-13	3.79	0
2	1938-05-13	4.20	0
3	1930-05-13	4.32	0
4	2026-05-13	4.38	0
5	2012-05-13	4.42	0
6	1995-05-13	4.64	0
7	1985-05-13	4.71	0
8	1969-05-13	4.77	0
9	1887-05-13	4.91	0
10	1883-05-13	4.98	0

 

 

 

[FPizz]

[winterwx21]

23 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I see many of the models are now giving us less than a tenth on an inch tonight. I will water the vegetable garden today. 

Yep, as expected very little rain. I got only .03" here. 

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep, as expected very little rain. I got only .03" here. 

Just crazy how 3 days ago it was an inch and we couldn't even squeeze out a tenth of that

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see if Philly can record their first 3 consecutive years under 40.00” since the early 1990s .

Long range precipitation forecasting is very uncertain.

The hope is that the STJ can come far enough north with the developing super El Niño to increase the rainfall enough in coming months to get over 40.00” by the end of December. 

Many spots have been running drier than average starting with the big dip in rainfall in September into October 2024.

Monthly Total Precipitation for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.84	2.24	1.90	2.11	0.37	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	9.46
2025	0.93	2.05	5.36	2.83	6.22	2.20	4.61	1.73	1.79	2.02	2.30	3.35	35.39
2024	5.91	1.49	7.19	4.16	1.72	4.68	2.44	5.07	0.77	T	2.52	3.45	39.40
2023	3.36	1.32	1.99	5.17	0.24	4.24	5.24	3.25	5.99	0.72	2.75	7.92	42.19
2022	3.35	2.87	2.09	4.51	4.16	5.03	2.20	2.70	2.06	5.80	2.89	4.85	42.51
2021	1.55	4.64	4.21	2.69	3.24	3.06	6.72	6.18	4.61	4.81	0.46	1.64	43.81
2020	2.64	2.46	3.94	3.75	2.20	3.21	5.54	8.53	4.23	4.09	4.79	4.38	49.76
2019	3.92	3.27	3.85	3.02	5.22	7.94	6.03	2.78	1.16	3.87	1.16	5.21	47.43
2018	2.85	6.02	4.74	3.94	5.21	3.34	3.06	4.11	9.76	3.08	9.03	6.38	61.52
2017	2.91	1.30	4.26	3.15	6.33	1.86	5.35	6.05	3.86	3.66	1.30	1.31	41.34
2016	2.63	4.36	2.01	1.75	6.65	1.87	3.88	1.70	3.52	2.06	2.17	2.72	35.32
2015	4.52	2.36	5.52	3.58	1.19	8.88	3.16	0.98	6.27	3.76	1.89	5.14	47.25
2014	3.55	5.12	4.23	6.69	2.91	5.46	4.30	3.55	1.69	2.53	4.07	3.27	47.37
2013	3.34	2.12	2.42	2.32	2.33	10.56	13.24	5.91	3.26	2.45	2.73	5.20	55.88
2012	2.59	1.84	0.79	2.55	3.35	2.94	1.48	5.37	5.48	4.08	1.05	4.42	35.94
2011	3.39	2.65	4.29	5.29	1.91	2.56	2.71	19.31	10.27	3.71	3.87	4.37	64.33
2010	2.19	5.75	7.33	2.65	2.53	2.05	6.28	2.19	3.48	5.01	1.76	3.24	44.46
2009	2.70	0.84	1.62	3.99	4.84	4.79	3.35	10.29	3.65	5.51	2.06	8.86	52.50
2008	1.74	3.93	3.67	2.19	4.55	2.87	3.45	2.44	4.31	1.59	4.02	5.57	40.33
2007	3.35	1.73	3.82	9.05	2.68	4.02	3.44	2.94	0.58	4.66	1.45	4.41	42.13
2006	4.34	1.51	0.91	3.71	2.16	7.95	4.27	3.93	5.97	6.42	4.88	2.15	48.20
2005	4.45	2.61	3.66	5.32	1.27	3.31	4.31	2.57	0.21	8.68	2.86	2.97	42.22
2004	1.70	2.50	3.54	6.02	3.62	4.57	7.91	4.17	5.19	2.24	4.55	3.17	49.18
2003	1.93	5.04	4.09	2.20	4.17	8.08	2.01	3.26	4.66	4.45	2.63	5.46	47.98
2002	2.43	0.55	4.03	2.17	3.57	3.73	2.12	2.47	3.67	5.90	4.65	4.05	39.34
2001	2.77	3.04	5.44	1.49	3.99	5.93	1.30	0.97	2.58	0.83	0.56	2.11	31.01
2000	3.22	2.02	6.32	3.05	3.03	3.82	5.54	2.90	8.28	1.51	2.21	2.82	44.72
1999	4.89	2.95	4.02	3.31	3.70	1.16	1.22	5.32	13.07	3.55	2.31	2.99	48.49
1998	4.24	3.25	3.93	2.70	3.87	4.91	1.79	1.26	1.86	1.84	1.18	0.82	31.65
1997	2.80	2.48	3.91	2.58	2.32	1.49	2.38	4.56	1.59	1.83	3.49	3.09	32.52
1996	4.39	2.12	4.27	4.48	3.25	4.73	8.17	4.29	4.95	4.30	3.03	8.47	56.45
1995	3.10	2.41	1.67	1.96	2.67	0.62	2.92	1.15	3.55	5.99	3.34	2.15	31.53
1994	4.27	3.27	6.44	2.86	3.66	1.74	10.42	4.54	1.64	0.94	3.03	2.11	44.92
1993	1.97	3.03	6.61	4.20	2.42	1.52	1.98	5.18	6.66	2.69	2.23	3.69	42.18
1992	0.88	1.31	3.19	1.26	2.74	1.84	5.05	2.00	3.04	1.23	3.26	4.61	30.41
1991	4.10	0.75	4.13	2.81	1.82	3.36	4.79	3.86	3.58	1.61	1.55	3.86	36.22
1990	4.09	1.44	2.59	3.16	6.08	3.39	2.62	4.07	1.71	1.68	1.17	3.79	35.79
1989	2.41	3.25	4.41	2.27	6.76	4.73	9.44	3.92	5.03	3.44	1.79	1.21	48.66
1988	2.72	4.11	2.24	2.92	3.67	0.57	8.07	3.16	2.62	2.16	5.17	1.00	38.41
1987	4.58	1.17	1.16	3.63	3.15	2.01	4.82	3.72	2.78	2.62	2.08	1.68	33.40
1986	4.13	3.38	1.25	4.46	0.70	1.99	4.10	3.70	2.33	2.22	6.27	5.89	40.42
1985	1.55	2.44	1.95	0.52	4.99	1.88	4.66	2.82	5.78	1.54	6.09	0.98	35.20
1984	2.22	2.81	6.14	4.25	6.87	2.85	6.99	3.28	1.96	2.56	1.56	2.17	43.66
1983	2.81	3.53	6.95	8.12	7.03	2.75	0.68	2.57	3.45	3.69	5.71	7.37	54.66
1982	4.45	3.16	2.66	6.06	4.47	5.76	1.94	2.20	2.32	1.94	3.67	1.80	40.43
1981	0.50	2.94	1.61	3.60	4.53	4.40	4.54	5.11	2.83	2.68	0.95	4.14	37.83
1980	2.27	0.96	7.01	4.79	3.22	1.73	6.58	0.80	2.79	5.03	2.85	0.77	38.80
1979	8.74	6.44	2.43	4.08	3.98	4.34	3.95	5.95	4.89	3.84	2.48	1.67	52.79
1978	8.86	1.35	4.31	1.76	6.01	1.75	5.27	6.04	1.59	1.20	2.20	5.61	45.95
1977	2.61	1.33	4.19	5.59	0.70	5.33	1.47	8.70	3.44	3.11	7.76	5.19	49.42
1976	4.50	1.66	2.38	2.06	4.35	3.42	4.04	2.17	2.44	4.30	0.32	1.63	33.27
1975	4.00	2.91	4.68	2.97	4.99	7.57	6.32	2.21	7.21	3.24	3.14	2.89	52.13
1974	2.95	2.14	4.91	2.77	3.21	4.43	2.08	3.83	4.68	1.93	0.81	4.04	37.78
1973	3.93	2.96	3.52	6.68	4.14	7.88	2.39	2.03	3.39	2.16	0.64	6.34	46.06
1972	2.34	5.09	2.69	4.08	4.11	5.79	2.62	3.76	1.12	3.77	9.06	5.20	49.63
1971	2.13	5.43	2.58	1.84	4.10	1.01	4.84	9.61	5.83	3.84	5.37	1.21	47.79
1970	0.74	2.08	3.83	6.12	2.57	4.60	2.75	3.99	0.82	3.66	4.71	3.27	39.14
1969	1.57	1.88	1.92	1.68	3.30	7.31	8.33	2.66	4.38	1.13	1.97	7.23	43.36
1968	2.90	1.40	4.98	1.57	5.17	5.89	2.00	1.24	0.44	3.15	4.17	2.54	35.45
1967	1.67	1.82	4.53	2.17	3.49	4.12	7.11	7.08	2.96	2.00	1.99	5.88	44.82
1966	2.82	4.30	0.68	4.35	2.95	0.41	2.35	1.63	8.70	5.12	2.36	4.33	40.00
1965	2.35	2.18	3.19	2.33	1.23	2.85	3.22	4.05	3.02	2.02	1.05	1.85	29.34
1964	3.92	2.83	1.94	5.27	0.47	0.21	3.83	0.49	2.42	1.73	1.64	5.13	29.88
1963	2.31	2.19	3.94	1.13	1.06	2.88	3.13	3.35	6.44	0.09	6.67	1.76	34.95