Stormlover74 Posted May 11 Author Share Posted May 11 Models showing a pretty rainy Wednesday Thursday period. Let's see if it holds or fizzles 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 SST Anomaly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 Ridging building in 5.17 - beyond next shot at 90s 5/17 - 5/24 - beyond 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Ridging building in 5.17 - beyond next shot at 90s 5/17 - 5/24 - beyond If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct? in NYC? Its happened in EWR - NJ. Ill have to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 37 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: If we get a 90-degree day in May, this spring would be the first ever to get an 80 in March, and a 90 in both April and May, correct? Other stations have done it further back in time with Caldwell being the most recent in 2021. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2021 84 90 91 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see what the pattern does in June following the mid to late May warm up. So far it appears we are in a pattern similar the warmer 2015 El Niño mid to late May as opposed to the cooler 2023 one. The 2015 analog is showing up on the day 8-14 analog composite. 2015 was a warmer summer here than 2023 was. New York, Climate Division 4 Average Temperature June-August higher ranks warmer with 2010 ranking #131 warmest June-August 2025 73.2°F 120* June-August 2024 74.0°F 127 June-August 2023 72.2°F 103 June-August 2022 74.1°F 128 June-August 2021 73.4°F 123* June-August 2020 74.3°F 130 June-August 2019 73.2°F 120* June-August 2018 73.4°F 123* June-August 2017 71.9°F 97* June-August 2016 74.2°F 129 June-August 2015 73.1°F 118 June-August 2014 71.6°F 92* June-August 2013 72.9°F 115* June-August 2012 73.4°F 123* June-August 2011 73.9°F 126* June-August 2010 75.2°F 131 June-August 2009 70.7°F 64* June-August 2008 72.5°F 108* June-August 2007 71.6°F 92* June-August 2006 73.0°F 117* June-August 2005 73.9°F 126* June-August 2004 70.6°F 62* June-August 2003 71.7°F 94* June-August 2002 72.9°F 115 * June-August 2001 72.0°F 100* June-August 2000 69.8°F 33 hey bluewave how was the 2015 summer? was it hot, average or cooler than normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 2015 # of 90 degree 2015: PHL: 37 (Apr: 0 ; May: 1; Jun: 7; Jul: 10; Aug: 12; Sep: 7 EWR: 35 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun 4; Jul: 11; Aug: 13; Sep: 5 TTN: 27 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 9; Sep: 6 LGA: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun:3; Jul : 6; Aug: 8; Sep: 3 ACY: 21 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 5; Jul: 4; Aug: 8; Sep: 3 TEB: 38 (Apr: 0 ; May: 4 ; Jun : 5; Jul: 8; Aug: 12; Sep: 8 NYC: 20 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 8; Sep: 6 JFK: 12 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 1; Jul:3 ; Aug: 6; Sep: 2 ISP: 7 (Apr: 0 ; May: 0 ; Jun: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 2 New Brunswick: 36 (Apr: 0 ; May: 2 ; Jun: 3; Jul: 11; Aug: 14; Sep: 6 89 Degree Days: TEB: 7 TTN: 4 PHL: 10 New Brunswick: 10 EWR: 6 NYC: 8 ACY: 9 JFK: 9 LGA: 7 ISP: 2 The year/summer was warm ad had the record for most 80 or >80 degree days in many spots. or top 3 in most others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: SST Anomaly So is the cold pool off our coast a result of this past seasonably cold winter, of more of a stronger Labrador current? Or perhaps upwelling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 11 Share Posted May 11 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: So is the cold pool off our coast a result of this past seasonably cold winter, of more of a stronger Labrador current? Or perhaps upwelling? I think its a combination of all three. Its been lingering there for a bit, we'll see it shrink towards late June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. There remains a risk that the front could stall for a time. Friday could see temperatures return to the 70° or above should the front clear the region. It will turn warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks. The SOI was -9.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.922 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 10 hours ago, SACRUS said: SST Anomaly Below normal temps in the gulf stream? I wonder what that will do to the weather in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 18 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Below normal temps in the gulf stream? I wonder what that will do to the weather in Europe. nothing unless gulf stream stops moving.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Chilly morning out this way… but beautiful blue skies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 55 / 31 sunny. Nicest day of the next 3 still a bit below normal but a pleasant mid - upper 60s. Clouds showers back Wed - Thu and rain looks in the 0.5 - 1.0 range in the wettest scenario. Clearing out as the closed upper trough rolls through. Much warmer by Sat and into next week with above to much above normal >80 and some 90s potentially. Beyond there overall warmer perhaps some onshore influence especially at the coast/beaches. But overall ridging into the east 5/17 - beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Records: Highs: EWR: 92 (1959) NYC: 93 (1881) LGA: 88 (1991) JFK: 89 (1991) Lows: EWR: 40 (1938) NYC: 40 (1907) LGA: 43 (1940) JFK: 43 (2020) Historical: 1760: Ben Franklin was the first person to identify nor'easters. In a letter on this date, Franklin described an experience that happened to him in November 1743 when storm clouds in Philadelphia blocked his view of an eclipse. Franklin assumed that the storm had blown in from the northeast because the surface winds at his location were from that direction. He was puzzled to find out later that his brother had viewed the eclipse with no problems and that the storm had arrived in Boston four hours later. The information caused Franklin to correctly surmise that the storm had moved from southwest to northeast. 1834: Unusual snows occurred across the Northeast. 6 inches fell at Erie, PA and 12 inches at Rutland, VT from this date through the 15th. 1876: The first American newspaper weather map was published in the New York Herald. Weather maps would first appear on a regular basis beginning on May 9, 1879 in the New York Daily Graphic. 1886: A tornado, which peaked at F4 intensity, touched down in Vermilion County near Armstrong, and passed between Alvin and Rossville before moving into Indiana. At least 5 houses were destroyed, two of which were totally swept away. Three people were killed. Five other strong tornadoes occurred across Illinois that day: two near Mt. Carroll, one near Odell, one near Jacksonville, and one in Iroquois County. A tornado killed 57 people as it passed through Greene and Huron Counties of Ohio leaving 43 dead in Xenia. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1914: Record maximum temperature for Washington, DC for the date is 93 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1929: One of Virginia's worst tornado on record occurred on this date. 6 tornadoes touched down, including two west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, killing 22 people and destroying 4 schools. 13 of the victims were killed at Rye Cove in Scott County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1934 - A dust storm darkened skies from Oklahoma to the Atlantic coast. (David Ludlum) 1971 - Duststorms suddenly reduced visibilities to near zero on Interstate Highway 10 near Casa Grande AZ. Chain reaction accidents involving cars and trucks resulted, killing seven persons. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - In Texas, A cloudburst dumped sixteen inches of rain north of New Braunfels sending a thirty foot wall of water down Blueders Creek into the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers washing away people, houses and automobiles. The flood claimed 18 lives and caused more than twenty million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1980: Cheyenne, WY received 3.8 inches of snow. It turned out to be the last snow of the 1979-80 season which produced a record 121.5 inches of snowfall. On the same day Scottsbluff, NE received just under an inch of snow (0.8 inches) which brought their snow season to an end with a record 78.5 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1982 - A late season snowstorm struck the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies. The storm produced 46 inches of snow at Coal Creek Canyon, located near Boulder. (David Ludlum) 1983: Heavy wet snow fell on this date through the 12th across parts of Montana. Snowfall totals included: Pryor: 22 inches, Melstone: 19 inches, Hysham: 18 inches, Broadus: 17 inches, Red Lodge: 16 inches, Plevna: 15 inches, Columbus: 14 inches, Nye: 13 inches, Baker: 13 inches, Billings: 12 inches, Forsyth: 12 inches and Miles City: 12 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A heat wave persisted in central California. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Fresno CA and 102 degrees at Sacramento CA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Eight cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Pendleton OR with a high of 92 degrees and Phoenix AZ with a reading of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system stalled over New York State drenched Portland ME with 4.50 inches of rain in 24 hours. Rains of 5 to 7 inches soaked the state of Maine over a four day period causing 1.3 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas and the Central Gulf Coast States into Missouri and Illinois. Thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Doloroso MS. Thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter west of Vicksburg MS, and wind gusts to 83 mph in southern Illinois, north of Vevay Park and at the Coles County Airport. High winds and heavy rain caused 1.6 million dollars crop damage in Calhoun County IL, and in southeastern Louisiana, Saint Joseph was deluged with eight inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1997: A towering tornado ripped its way through the middle of Miami, Biscayne Bay and Miami Beach right after lunch Monday, smashing cars and windows, tossing trees skyward and scaring the dickens out of thousands of people. (Ref. Miami, Biscayne Bay Tornado Story with the Tornado Image) 2000: Severe thunderstorms produced hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter from Eureka to Roanoke, causing $300,000 damage to 100 cars. This was part of a cluster of severe thunderstorms, producing hail in a large area from the Illinois River to the Indiana border. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 29 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Chilly morning out this way… but beautiful blue skies. The low was a bit cooler than expected here, got down to 35, up to 51 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 38 here. Maybe last 30s for a few months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 A couple hundred foot difference in about a half mile was a 10° difference in the low temp, 40 vs 50. Looks like I got to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 34 minutes ago, FPizz said: 38 here. Maybe last 30s for a few months Sampling of the coldest NJ lows this morning. Likely not another morning with this kind of areawide chill until late September or October. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Sampling of the coldest NJ lows this morning. Likely not another morning with this kind of areawide chill until late September or October. Yeah should be good for awhile. Early June and late August can be sneaky but I think we're entering summer mode. You'll start to see dews increasing as well which will keep it warmer at night too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 I think I’d rather pay the natty gas bill to take morning chill out over the electric bill when the AC cranks on those high dews, but considering it’s almost mid-May, it’s getting to be about that time…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: I think I’d rather pay the natty gas bill to take morning chill out over the electric bill when the AC cranks on those high dews, but considering it’s almost mid-May, it’s getting to be about that time…. Not looking forward to months of AC but that's the way it goes. Much rather have the windows open a bit at night and be under the blankets. That will be coming to an end soon enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 20 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not looking forward to months of AC but that's the way it goes. Much rather have the windows open a bit at night and be under the blankets. That will be coming to an end soon enough. i would have my windows open at night with temps in the 40's under blanket because to much heat lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 time to man up summer is coming fast before you even blink the cool breezes of fall will soon return.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue into early next week. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks. The SOI was -11.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.980 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 https://x.com/i/status/2054307314606186925 No more Nams, sref, href, etc come Aug 31. Rrfs taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 9 minutes ago, FPizz said: https://x.com/i/status/2054307314606186925 No more Nams, sref, href, etc come Aug 31. Rrfs taking over. @BxEngineis jumping for joy that the HRRR is not on that list. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 RIP soon to the Nam , HREF AND SREF. Going to miss the epic Nam bombs and SREFs awful performances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 13 Share Posted May 13 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: RIP soon to the Nam , HREF AND SREF. Going to miss the epic Nam bombs and SREFs awful performances. RRFS had a good showing in the first Dec clipper. Other than that it seemed forgettable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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