May 2026 Medium / Long Range

[WEATHER53]

This summer seems different Not as bad as long . June probably does not get hot  and I think wet and below av temps. July gets hot but August around average.  

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z NBM for Wed.

 

[87storms]

14 hours ago, frd said:

That’s one of the most beautiful maps I’ve ever seen.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, 87storms said:

That’s one of the most beautiful maps I’ve ever seen.

Alright so next week everybody drop off all your drenched sweat rags, shirts, and other humidity paraphernalia at 87's house. Don't even wring it out just slop it at the door 

[konksw]

I mean I don’t love the punishing humidity but my skin certainly does better with more humidity than we’ve had.  

[87storms]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright so next week everybody drop off all your drenched sweat rags, shirts, and other humidity paraphernalia at 87's house. Don't even wring it out just slop it at the door 

I honestly want it to be warm and humid for the next 6 months.  I’m so over the weather we’ve had since the pattern flip last September.  It’s cloudy 4-5 days a week with very little to show for it.  Let’s get swamp weather and rebuild the water table.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO for midweek rain.

[AnEndlessMaze]

Frost tonight and 90 by Sunday. The bimodal distribution continues 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS went berserk with rain....maybe early but hopefully a sign of things to come with the El Niño.

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS supports a wetter forecast for May 20-26th period.

[frd]

Mount Holly's  latest AFD 

 

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread rain with potentially a few
thunderstorms moves in for the afternoon hours on Wednesday,
continuing into Thursday morning.

The upper-level pattern is forecast to become rather amplified
through this week. A strong upper-level trough axis shifts to
our east Tuesday as high pressure will also be shifting
offshore. Another upper-level trough then moves over the Eastern
US Wednesday into Thursday before lifting out Friday into
Saturday. Guidance seems to be trending toward the earlier
ECMWF`s idea that the incoming trough will close off either over
our area or just off to the east. The timing and location of
where the cutoff occurs will determine when things dry out. If
the trough cuts off over our area, showers could linger into
Thursday. If it cuts off just to the east, showers should move
out by Thursday, giving way to a nice weekend (more on that in
Key Message 3). Regardless of how this transpires, a round of
widespread rain is expected with as the incoming trough and cold
front arrive.

As the aforementioned upper-level trough moves into the region
Wednesday, low-level warm air advection will increase ahead of
it as the low to mid level flow also increases. This will result
in an increase in forcing for ascent, and some instability
should develop ahead of the main forcing. A warm front should
also lift across our area Wednesday with some ascent associated
with it. As a result, showers should increase Wednesday from
west to east, especially in the afternoon with forcing peaking
Wednesday night as the cold front arrives. The amount of
destabilization is more uncertain, however guidance does show
some instability which should be enough to support at least a
few thunderstorms. The intensity of any thunderstorms however
will depend on the magnitude of the instability and shear.
However, guidance this morning does not show much in terms of
instability, with shear looking rather meager as well. This
would result in a low to zero severe threat, with better
kinematics well off to our west.

The main forcing should shift to our east and northeast
Thursday with the bulk of the showers ending. However, if the
closed low scenario ends up happening, then the core of the cold
air aloft with this slides overhead and this could result in
additional shower development on Thursday before the system
departs our region. Rainfall amounts are trending to be right
around a half inch or so.

[pazzo83]

4 hours ago, AnEndlessMaze said:

Frost tonight and 90 by Sunday. The bimodal distribution continues 

lol quite true.  you can have mid March OR you can have late June!

[WxUSAF]

Would be fitting that we finally get our rainy pattern to start on Memorial Day weekend. But overnight euro sorta followed the pattern of the gfs and a Bermuda high combined with a stalled front could be a winning combo.

[nw baltimore wx]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Would be fitting that we finally get our rainy pattern to start on Memorial Day weekend. But overnight euro sorta followed the pattern of the gfs and a Bermuda high combined with a stalled front could be a winning combo.

That would be fine with me.  It's the earliest Memorial Day possible this year. So, with almost a full week of May left after the Monday holiday, it won't really feel like the start of summer anyway.