May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Great afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Jeans? Shorts and Ts today.

Jorts

[ineedsnow]

Alertpage, Inc

 

@alertpage

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41s

 

 

NEW SALEM, MA (FRANKLIN COUNTY) | *AIRCRAFT CRASH* | 77 MASSACHUSETTS 122 | CONFIRMED SMALL AIRCRAFT CRASHED INTO THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR. PILOT OF THE PLANE AND WATER NOW ON THE SHORE #BREAKING

[Chrisrotary12]

HRRR really starting to emphasize morning rain here tomorrow. 

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one has worn jeans since early / mid Morch. You don’t wear jeans after Morch unless for work. Pope FTL 

Ya Not.  Had jogging pants on all week at work. And jeans tonight, And last weekend when out for the evening.  Don’t know where you live, but seriously, nobody here is wearing shorts to go out in during the evening.  I honestly don’t think there was one person in the bar/restaurant I was in tonight, that had shorts on lol. 
 

Now two weeks ago when it was 85-90, ya…that was different. But not since then. 

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, BrianW said:

Yeah. Great evening to fire up the grill. What a leaf out as well. Feels like summer is just around the corner. 

Got the same exact grill…but has a stainless steel top, instead of black. Have had it for 10 years, and we replaced only the triangle burner covers, and that’s it. Thing is top notch, and wears like iron.  Love it. 

[mreaves]

7 hours ago, dendrite said:

Max 58.7°

Nice sunny day despite the wind and occasional chill. 

54.5° for the high here. You torched comparatively. 

[BrianW]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Got the same exact grill…but has a stainless steel top, instead of black. Have had it for 10 years, and we replaced only the triangle burner covers, and that’s it. Thing is top notch, and wears like iron.  Love it. 

Yeah. Its from 2015 and I never covered it and have only had to replace the battery on the igniter twice and the burner covers. Its well built with stainless steel everything including the fastners. Easily will go another 10 years. 

[dendrite]

Rain is starting to pick up a bit

41.1°

[Modfan2]

46F and a trace of rain so far in E CT

[The 4 Seasons]

20 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Did I let you know? I honestly forget. I think it was 72.7.

that was you, when i did that map on March 2nd. On the March 3-4th storm you tagged me with 0.5" so that should put you at 73.2"

[BrianW]

Nice stretch of a few days of above normal coming up. 

 

[kdxken]

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Rain is starting to pick up a bit

41.1°

Looks like more rain than expected. Especially out by hippie.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Nice stretch of a few days of above normal coming up. 

 

Sucks the weekend is well below normal.

[codfishsnowman]

On 4/30/2026 at 10:34 PM, dendrite said:

AEMATT trying to take the rest of us down with them

 

Good tune

[codfishsnowman]

Pouring here in northern Longmeadow/far southern Forest Park

I'm going to enjoy the cool weather bc the inevitable miserly heat and humidity might be slightly delayed but not denied

[CoastalWx]

The one day I want stein. Hopefully just a passing shower this aftn.

[codfishsnowman]

Alex's bagles is crazy busy. I'm sure they're in no hurry for HHH

[codfishsnowman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The one day I want stein. Hopefully just a passing shower this aftn.

Pass the canoe is more like it

[codfishsnowman]

On 4/27/2026 at 1:24 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

We May '05:

May '77

[Lava Rock]

41F. Lt. Rn. This blows

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Another Steiner for most . .03 that barely wet the pavement. Looks like some clearing moving in soon from W CT

[Damage In Tolland]

Interesting to note the cool temps have backed off somewhat for the month and the coolest anomalies shifted west to the Lakes and Midwest. East of Apps not really that cool anymore we get closer . A sign for the summer most likely 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Looks like more rain than expected. Especially out by hippie.

Ya' a little over .20" definitely was a surprise.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The one day I want stein. Hopefully just a passing shower this aftn.

Not too bad of a start though. Breaks of sun before overcast rolled in. Line looks broken so maybe we salvage a not so bad a day.

[CoastalWx]

Lots of coastals being modeled. 

[Torch Tiger]

Zero coastals on the 6z gfs

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Zero coastals on the 6z gfs

Who looks at the gfs?

[Torch Tiger]

coastal

[Damage In Tolland]

Coastalwx?

[Typhoon Tip]

Improving odds for a hemispheric switch to a warm signal for mid month.  Which isn't saying a lot at still 13 days away, but improving nonetheless.  

Emerging collapse in the PNA coming from all extended guidance for that index.   Meanwhile, the the AO is pulled back (finally).   

And, if it helps...the climate composite on the MJO wave space in 8 for May is actually a modest over the top warming signal..  Indeed, the MJO is forecast to re-emerge on the left side of the RMM with perhaps nearly the same momentum as this most recent propagation.  It's not hurting a warmer cause

  

So we'll see... if you're a warm enthusiasts, it's a light at a the end of a tunnel for deeper more foundational looking warm pattern.   

In the meantime, Tuesday may approach 80...HA!  So, it's not like we can't get by in the meantime.  I just wish we'd time one of these warm bursts on the weekend.       Weird look in total, really.  Stationary front from IND-BTV like that is odd at this time of year.   So we get late winter on the W side and early summer on the E for a couple of days...   massive gradient 

The other aspect to consider is that the index correlation to pattern orientation is different in May than January. So have to consider two aspects, seasonal wave space changes.  Also that there's a season -D(x) component where that is in the process of changing weaker.  That's the seasonality signal.

Putting all this together ... mm I'd say between modest and moderate signal for a warmer pattern change, mid month.