Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[FXWX]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). 

I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period. 

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

[klw]

10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have read (from semi-reliable sources) that the very high arctic...above 80N....has been freakishly cold this summer.

What's up with that?  Is it a super +AO?

Reading the Neven Sea Ice Board there has been a low entrenched over the pole most of the sun keeping warmth and sun at bay.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

Another screenshot

[stadiumwave]

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, FXWX said:

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

Mmm 

[Prismshine Productions]

Ice storms are my major concern this winter.
I’ll be getting the old generator up to snuff this fall!

I'm moving to West Townsend, that is my concern too

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[JACKASS]

9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I'm moving to West Townsend, that is my concern too

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Boundary temps.

Cold above… rain.

Cold below….ice.

Fucking hate freezing rain!!!

[stadiumwave]

Nice composite

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Nice composite

Where is that from? Weathermodels.com?

That looks very much like my extra tropical Pacific composite.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Nice composite

I find that hard to believe. 

I'm not sure these guidance have a very good clue there.  Why?  they are less reliable when climate is in fact in a state of aggressive d(C) so is unstable with the averages moving. Any climate inference is thus suss.   I just think these seasonal tools with climatology baked into them when we have global temperature surges that were also, not predicted by climate-based modeling, whilst also we are at historically high global thermal state with no offsets apparent to the global system...  I dunno

I also am suss that the subtropics are going to lose the global thermal anomaly around those latitudes so readily.

This is likely to fall on deaf ears ... because it's lowering the potency of d-drip, I know ... but I'd be cautious with that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I find that hard to believe. 

I'm not sure these guidance have a very good clue there.  Why?  they are less reliable when climate is in fact in a state of aggressive d(C) so is unstable with the averages moving. Any climate inference is thus suss.   I just think these seasonal tools with climatology baked into them when we have global temperature surges that were also, not predicted by climate-based modeling, whilst also we are at historically high global thermal state with no offsets apparent to the global system...  I dunno

I also am suss that the subtropics are going to lose the global thermal anomaly around those latitudes so readily.

This is likely to fall on deaf ears ... because it's lowering the potency of d-drip, I know ... but I'd be cautious with that. 

I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.

[Prismshine Productions]

Where is that from? Weathermodels.com?
That looks very much like my extra tropical Pacific composite.

-PNA
+NAO

Ehhhhhh...

Can see occasional cold shots but they will be shallow and fleeting at best. Everyone in a +2.5-+4 winter

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[Typhoon Tip]

I'm just speaking from a position of purer logic.   

If the climate is unstable, referring to it ... is riskier than if the climate is stable; specifically with regard to the climate aspect. 

That said, my op ed on the matter is that I simply don't believe we sustain negative anomalies in the mid latitude band like that, regardless.   However, I don't have a problem with some sort of positive anomaly N though. 

[ORH_wxman]

Big GOA low is pretty consistent with super Ninos.....that composite isn't very cold due to that GOA low placement....but the AO/NAO region is good enough that we could def score some chances in that type of pattern. 

If you want to go gangbusters though, you'd have to retrograde that GOA low about 1000 miles west. 

 

I think the way you'd get multiple chances in this type of Nino is to follow that Dec '97 type pattern and then hopefully get something more like Feb '83 instead of Feb '98. But there's no way to know any of that this far out. 

On 8/19/2026 at 10:51 AM, stadiumwave said:

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

Dec 1997 had a block in a similar spot to the Roundy plot. Despite the terrible placement of the AK vortex that month, the block there and the east-based NAO blocking gave us enough seasonal temps and synoptic advantage to grab some legit chances in New England. Obviously the big one was 12/23/97 but a lot of people prob forget how close 12/29-30/97 was to being a monster snowstorm....ended up being a decent front ender over interior, but it went up through CT valley. Also had a close miss a couple days earlier that scraped SE areas. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big GOA low is pretty consistent with super Ninos.....that composite isn't very cold due to that GOA low placement....but the AO/NAO region is good enough that we could def score some chances in that type of pattern. 

If you want to go gangbusters though, you'd have to retrograde that GOA low about 1000 miles west. 

 

I think the way you'd get multiple chances in this type of Nino is to follow that Dec '97 type pattern and then hopefully get something more like Feb '83 instead of Feb '98. But there's no way to know any of that this far out. 

Dec 1997 had a block in a similar spot to the Roundy plot. Despite the terrible placement of the AK vortex that month, the block there and the east-based NAO blocking gave us enough seasonal temps and synoptic advantage to grab some legit chances in New England. Obviously the big one was 12/23/97 but a lot of people prob forget how close 12/29-30/97 was to being a monster snowstorm....ended up being a decent front ender over interior, but it went up through CT valley. Also had a close miss a couple days earlier that scraped SE areas. 

 

Fortunately we have a few thousand hours before the start of met winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big GOA low is pretty consistent with super Ninos.....that composite isn't very cold due to that GOA low placement....but the AO/NAO region is good enough that we could def score some chances in that type of pattern. 

If you want to go gangbusters though, you'd have to retrograde that GOA low about 1000 miles west. 

 

I think the way you'd get multiple chances in this type of Nino is to follow that Dec '97 type pattern and then hopefully get something more like Feb '83 instead of Feb '98. But there's no way to know any of that this far out. 

Dec 1997 had a block in a similar spot to the Roundy plot. Despite the terrible placement of the AK vortex that month, the block there and the east-based NAO blocking gave us enough seasonal temps and synoptic advantage to grab some legit chances in New England. Obviously the big one was 12/23/97 but a lot of people prob forget how close 12/29-30/97 was to being a monster snowstorm....ended up being a decent front ender over interior, but it went up through CT valley. Also had a close miss a couple days earlier that scraped SE areas. 

 

December 1986 looks like a pretty good match, too.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Will the NE and NW passages open this year?

[MarcmmKU]

On 8/20/2026 at 12:30 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

-PNA
+NAO

Ehhhhhh...

Can see occasional cold shots but they will be shallow and fleeting at best. Everyone in a +2.5-+4 winter

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+4 F is extremely workable for the interior. Can even be beneficial if moisture is above normal too. Things only start to get worrisome for interior NE if we start flirting with +8 F

[dendrite]

+4 would be one of the warmest winters on record here. 

[powderfreak]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

+4 would be one of the warmest winters on record here. 

Depends on how we get to +4… we’ve had some luck recently with that because it never radiates all month and its like +5 because mins average 18F instead of 11F.

We’ve had some whopper departures though recently that come out passable.

BTV had measurable snowfall on 17 days in Jan 2023, 19.9” fell  (average of 17.4”)… with a +8.3 departure .

Every day was like 35/25 which is like +12.

[dendrite]

29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Depends on how we get to +4… we’ve had some luck recently with that because it never radiates all month and its like +5 because mins average 18F instead of 11F.

We’ve had some whopper departures though recently that come out passable.

BTV had measurable snowfall on 17 days in Jan 2023, 19.9” fell  (average of 17.4”)… with a +8.3 departure .

Every day was like 35/25 which is like +12.

Jan 23 was 31” here… +8.9F at CON

I’m just not sure I’d call +4F “extremely workable”.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Jan 23 was 31” here… +8.9F at CON

I’m just not sure I’d call +4F “extremely workable”.

Yeah, that’s fair for sure.  It’s not ideal, ha.

That CON one is even better than BTV, damn.  31” at almost +9.

Looks like a lot of low diurnal swing days around freezing after an early month torch.

[H2Otown_WX]

Is it possible to have a Modoki in a strong Nino?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Jan 23 was 31” here… +8.9F at CON

I’m just not sure I’d call +4F “extremely workable”.

Yes. We may have examples of blowtorch winter months working out, but overall how often does that actually happen? I’m not insulated from a disaster up here, though it’s obvious not as precarious as being down in the CTRV.