Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[FXWX]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). 

I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period. 

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

[klw]

10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have read (from semi-reliable sources) that the very high arctic...above 80N....has been freakishly cold this summer.

What's up with that?  Is it a super +AO?

Reading the Neven Sea Ice Board there has been a low entrenched over the pole most of the sun keeping warmth and sun at bay.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

Another screenshot

[stadiumwave]

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, FXWX said:

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

Mmm 

[Prismshine Productions]

Ice storms are my major concern this winter.
I’ll be getting the old generator up to snuff this fall!

I'm moving to West Townsend, that is my concern too

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

[JACKASS]

9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I'm moving to West Townsend, that is my concern too

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Boundary temps.

Cold above… rain.

Cold below….ice.

Fucking hate freezing rain!!!

[stadiumwave]

Nice composite

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Nice composite

Where is that from? Weathermodels.com?

That looks very much like my extra tropical Pacific composite.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

Nice composite

I find that hard to believe. 

I'm not sure these guidance have a very good clue there.  Why?  they are less reliable when climate is in fact in a state of aggressive d(C) so is unstable with the averages moving. Any climate inference is thus suss.   I just think these seasonal tools with climatology baked into them when we have global temperature surges that were also, not predicted by climate-based modeling, whilst also we are at historically high global thermal state with no offsets apparent to the global system...  I dunno

I also am suss that the subtropics are going to lose the global thermal anomaly around those latitudes so readily.

This is likely to fall on deaf ears ... because it's lowering the potency of d-drip, I know ... but I'd be cautious with that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I find that hard to believe. 

I'm not sure these guidance have a very good clue there.  Why?  they are less reliable when climate is in fact in a state of aggressive d(C) so is unstable with the averages moving. Any climate inference is thus suss.   I just think these seasonal tools with climatology baked into them when we have global temperature surges that were also, not predicted by climate-based modeling, whilst also we are at historically high global thermal state with no offsets apparent to the global system...  I dunno

I also am suss that the subtropics are going to lose the global thermal anomaly around those latitudes so readily.

This is likely to fall on deaf ears ... because it's lowering the potency of d-drip, I know ... but I'd be cautious with that. 

I think you need to look beyond the CC aspect, too, though....most guidance will be too cold...got it. But if it's right with the orientation of those heights into our area, then we'd have some chances....I get the exaggerated SE CONUS trough, etc....but that isn't entirely prohibitive, TBH, it could even be beneficial for us relative the mid atl as long as the gradient doesn't get overly steep. The STJ with these things can sometimes get buried.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think it's also possible to get too extreme in the other direction as far CC goes, and this isn't a slight at John..as I discussed last spring, I was actually guilty of that last winter and it ultimately served to tarnish what was an otherwise absolutely exemplary seasonal effort. It's crucial to find and maintain that balance between the synthesis of lessons learned to inform future efforts, while also appreciating that each individual season possesses important differences. I'm still trying to find my proverbial footing in that regard.

[Prismshine Productions]

Where is that from? Weathermodels.com?
That looks very much like my extra tropical Pacific composite.

-PNA
+NAO

Ehhhhhh...

Can see occasional cold shots but they will be shallow and fleeting at best. Everyone in a +2.5-+4 winter

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk