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On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess


HoarfrostHubb
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53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, it's weak-moderate.

 

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shabbs has it high end . Super 

 

19 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

The predictability barrier really is a humbling beast. All of the advancements in modeling technology and yet we still can't get around it! Hard to ignore how hard the models are driving warmth across the 3.4 as we push forward though

I’m inclined to think we end up with a strong to very strong Nino, but the predictability barrier is real. It’s still early.

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33F and rain here. If we can get pingers by 03-04z, prob a decent sign we can flip to snow by 06z assuming we’re ripping big omega. But otherwise I’m keeping expectations pretty low here. I’d feel pretty decent NE of about BED for at least advisory stuff. 

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At least for inside 128, not feeling a surprise >3" snow:

DPs:

image.png.a7c32573f8ecf535ef03aefee381195c.png

Still an 850 tongue on 0z NAM

6z:

Station: KBOS
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
Elevation:  37.29
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
SFC  1023.6       37      0.5     0.1      51     13
M    1000.0      224     -0.8    -1.1      57     26
S     950.0      633     -1.7    -2.0      86     32
S     900.0     1065     -0.2    -0.5      87     22
M     850.0     1523      0.3     0.0     112     13
S     800.0     2009     -0.1    -0.4     147      9
S     750.0     2526     -0.4    -0.7     201     16
M     700.0     3077     -1.9    -2.3     229     25

9z:

     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
M    1000.0      214     -0.7 -9999.0      53     24
S     950.0      624     -0.4    -0.7      91     28
S     900.0     1057     -0.1    -0.4      96     23
M     850.0     1515      0.2    -0.1     123     13
S     800.0     2001     -0.5    -0.7     158      9
S     750.0     2517     -0.7    -1.0     239     16
M     700.0     3067     -2.2    -2.5     261     25
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5 minutes ago, met_fan said:

That guy’s twitter bio is a nightmare

Interesting dude but a very, very good met. Interned with his group at the Boston air traffic control center my senior year of college. 

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7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

At least for inside 128, not feeling a surprise >3" snow:

DPs:

image.png.a7c32573f8ecf535ef03aefee381195c.png

Still an 850 tongue on 0z NAM

6z:

Station: KBOS
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
Elevation:  37.29
     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
SFC  1023.6       37      0.5     0.1      51     13
M    1000.0      224     -0.8    -1.1      57     26
S     950.0      633     -1.7    -2.0      86     32
S     900.0     1065     -0.2    -0.5      87     22
M     850.0     1523      0.3     0.0     112     13
S     800.0     2009     -0.1    -0.4     147      9
S     750.0     2526     -0.4    -0.7     201     16
M     700.0     3077     -1.9    -2.3     229     25

9z:

     Press    Height   Temp    Dewpt     Dir    Spd
M    1000.0      214     -0.7 -9999.0      53     24
S     950.0      624     -0.4    -0.7      91     28
S     900.0     1057     -0.1    -0.4      96     23
M     850.0     1515      0.2    -0.1     123     13
S     800.0     2001     -0.5    -0.7     158      9
S     750.0     2517     -0.7    -1.0     239     16
M     700.0     3067     -2.2    -2.5     261     25

Yea, maybe...whatever, at this point.

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