Kmlwx Posted September 4 Author Share Posted September 4 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Well said. I agree with layering the Maryland counties adjacent to the Potomac River on the watch in case upscale growth occurs, but it's going to be tough. Our only chance seems to be from those storm just NW of Martinsburg getting their act together. Was just going to post about that too. The other *possibility* is if the bowing line segment approaching Stephens City can surge a bit more east versus south east - it wouldn't take much trajectory change to get at least the southern half of MoCo in on the show. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 1 hour ago, Kmlwx said: Still a good bit of MLCIN over the DC/Baltimore area on mesoanalysis. DCAPE is not good NE of the Potomac essentially but ramps up quickly S/SW of there. DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 One hell of a supercell heading towards Orange. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Ping pong ball sized hail report just NW of Orange. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Looks like I'll be sitting this one out. Southern PG and Alexandria look to have a good shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 Good storm in Burke again. This one is training over me. Had two big CTG lightning strikes while hanging on the porch. First was less than 200 yards away. The other was about 1/4 mile away. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 31 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: Looks like I'll be sitting this one out. Southern PG and Alexandria look to have a good shot. With the damage in the southern half of PG, they could use to sit this one out. (I work Utility) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 I missed everything to the north until last evening when I started missing everything to the sw. At least I got to see flases of distance lightning last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted September 4 Share Posted September 4 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: DCAPE over me down at UVA is rather impressive. If the WV line holds together we could get some good wind damage. No wind damage is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 it’s like 82 degrees in the house and power has been out for 21 hours now… and we’re gonna make it to 24. third delay. u gotta be fucking kidding me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 Is that stuff out west supposed to expand or trigger new storms? The trajectory sure looks like it's heading south and west of my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Is that stuff out west supposed to expand or trigger new storms? The trajectory sure looks like it's heading south and west of my location Guess that answers it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted yesterday at 11:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:43 AM Let's fire up the severe thread for one last hurrah! SLGT for parts of the region tomorrow; MRGL for just about everyone else. Strong front approaches Friday evening with a good signal for a line of forced convection just ahead of it. Shear will be very strong, and some forecast soundings have a little bit of instability. The threat of a few damaging gusts seems legit. (I'm ignoring the 2% TOR for now.) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted yesterday at 11:58 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 11:58 AM I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM 54 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) Squeegee line instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted yesterday at 12:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:55 PM Ah our old friend QLCS (from this morning AFD from LWX) Warm conditions return Friday as sunshine and southwest winds push highs back up to the low to mid 80s. Models continue to slow the arrival of our next cold front. The leading edge of the front, with its associated line of showers and thunderstorms, is now progged to cross the area Friday late afternoon to evening. The later arrival also allows for more instability to develop, which will act to fuel stronger thunderstorms. Sufficient shear should support an organized like of convection, with embedded severe thunderstorms. While damaging wind gusts are going to be the primary threat, a quick QLCS tornado spin-up is certainly possible. SPC has added a Slight Risk across the northern Shenandoah Valley to northern MD, with a Marginal Risk covering the rest of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 30% wind added for NE MD into SE NY on 1730z SPC OTLK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 5 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm ready for my pencil thin line of gusty showers! (hoping for more!) The minimum is probably a line of heavy showers with gusts to 30-40 or so. The higher end is widespread gusts to 50 and some localized 60, with maybe a brief spinup or two. Probably at least a few scattered lightning strikes if we can get some heating. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago We’re really socked in east of the BR. Not sure that mid October sun can burn that off 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re really socked in east of the BR. Not sure that mid October sun can burn that off Of course my grid says I go to mostly sunny, hmm? We shall see. Time is ticking. oday A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: We’re really socked in east of the BR. Not sure that mid October sun can burn that off I would think that warm advection might be enough, even without a lot of sun.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, frd said: Of course my grid says I go to mostly sunny, hmm? We shall see. Time is ticking. oday A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Full on sun out here north of Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Very distinct this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, wxmeddler said: Very distinct this morning. Love when we get a wedge like this, makes for some easy and great photography if you're willing to wake with the sun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago It's definitely trying - can see significant thinning on visible sat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: It's definitely trying - can see significant thinning on visible sat. Sun is out in Charlottesville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's definitely trying - can see significant thinning on visible sat. Yeah it’s actually doing the thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago Looks like everything got nudged SW a tad in the 1630z OTLK from SPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like everything got nudged SW a tad in the 1630z OTLK from SPC Probably because of the clearing. Sunny here now. Waiting on my fall wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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