2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

The CAMs are really all over the place (seems to be a common theme this year). I could technically see chunks of the area getting skunked through the whole week...The game of weather lottery! 

 Even this evening has a lot of questions.  While there is general agreement that a cluster of storms drops south through NJ/DE, some of the CAMs have storms building back to the west and catching much of central MD.

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until midnight for NE MD and DE 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   435 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Delaware
     Northeast Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 435 PM until Midnight
     EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large
   hail this afternoon as they track east-southeastward across the
   northern Mid-Atlantic. The threat for scattered severe/damaging
   winds should increase this evening as one or more clusters develops.
   A tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell.

 

[yoda]

 

[The Dude]

19 minutes ago, high risk said:

 Even this evening has a lot of questions.  While there is general agreement that a cluster of storms drops south through NJ/DE, some of the CAMs have storms building back to the west and catching much of central MD.

Dumb question:  When folks are referencing the CAMs here, which models are you looking at.  I assume the HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS.  Any others?  FV3, WRF-ARW? 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

Dumb question:  When folks are referencing the CAMs here, which models are you looking at.  I assume the HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS.  Any others?  FV3, WRF-ARW? 

 

        Correct.   HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS, and the three Hires Windows (FV3, ARW, ARW2).

 

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

        Correct.   HRRR, NAM Nest, RRFS, and the three Hires Windows (FV3, ARW, ARW2).

 

What about the MPAS?

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, yoda said:

What about the MPAS?

      I personally don't look at it very often, as it's still being tweaked.   That said, it's the future, so as it matures, I'll definitely be looking more often.