2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

Geez, got back home and there’s a tree down across the road. Couple limbs down around the neighborhood. Everyone’s outside. 

[snowfan]

[snowfan]

[mkellerm]

The storm that just came through Annapolis was pretty intense.  BGE says 22,000 without power in Anne Arundel County.  We had lights flickering for about 10 minutes.

[SnowenOutThere]

An exciting couple of hours weather wise! 

Honestly, once the first round passed I assumed it was over until I heard some thunder in the distance. After looking at the radar I instantly rushed off to the Herndon metro parking garage as it has the best skyline I know of. Got there in time to watch the shelf cloud develop and then roll in. 

Before becoming part of the "# of people struck by lightning a year" statistic I made sure to get a picture of my trusty stead: The humble CRV. 

Afterwards, I decided to ride out the storm inside of the parking garage as driving home on FFX County parkway did not seem like a good time.

 

Eventually, I decided to take a video of the storm coming in. Could hear the metal signs clanging throughout the empty garage. Was pretty freaky. 

Finally, as the storm passed I saw a double rainbow appear. I attempted to get a lightning rainbow picture to complete my collection but had no such luck; though I personally hold the mental image with me. 

Lo and behold, just as I was packing up, another rainbow appeared which was even more vibrant than the first! 

Finally, I headed on homeward where I was met with a tree in the road. Additional limbs came down on fences, and even my neighbors windshield. 

Now, this (if I was smart) is where I should've realized that we will have an awesome sunset due to the past convection and humid air combined with the advantageous June sun angle and thus rushed to some open space to capture what might be the sunset of the year. Sadly, I only realized it was occurring as it passed (I'm sure there is a lesson in this) and realized a 10 minute drive would reward me only with deepening twilight. So, I sat back and watched what I could from my driveway. 

[BlizzardNole]

Geez Snowen those pics!! 

"on this episode of Storm Chasers..."

[snowfan]

That aa co storm was putting out a healthy amount of lightning.

[Kmlwx]

Anne Arundel Co FD has a crap ton of calls 

[wxdude64]

Sadly a life was lost to the storms going east of Roanoke earlier today-

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
927 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Moneta              37.15N 79.63W
06/12/2026                   Bedford            VA   911 Call Center

            *** 1 FATAL, 23 INJ ***
            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2
            S Moneta. Outflow from thunderstorm blew
            down one tent at a local church. One
            fatality and 23 injuries have been reported
            as of this report.

[wxdude64]

Only a 38 mph gust here at 5:20 pm in the thunderstorm, but when we left to go out to eat at 5:45 at the bottom of the hill a large maple had split and pulled power lines across the road, maybe 1/3 mile away from our house. They just were getting the road reopened when we came back at 9:30 pm. 

[Rhino16]

I went outside at work and it was windy. Dust was flying everywhere from the gravel parking lot it brought me back to Kansas. Unfortunately I had to get back to work, but it did rain briefly! Now there’s some rumbly showers rolling through in a minute or two. It gusted 29mph at the local airport.

[vortex95]

10 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

Some thoughts on yesterday, then today...

Yesterday:
Anytime you get a "swashed spider" hodograph, the storms are going to be weaker and messier than just looking at the thermodynamics would expect you to believe. Venting, inflow, water loading, updraft velocity are all going to be negatively impacted. That said, yesterday there was a decent shortwave and enough low level instability that allowed a few storms to develop over/west of the mountains and get the cold pool party started. Once the cold pool production began, the ambient DCAPE and torrid conditions was enough to sustain weak pulse like thunderstorms to the ocean. Limbs start to fail around these parts at around 30 mph, and you start seeing downed trees around 45-50 mph. That is just the nature of the flora in our region, they don't get hit often and so even weak storms do damage. 

Today:
Another weak wave as part of the packet that spawned the tornado outbreak in IL/IN yesterday will move into the western region this afternoon. Theta-E values in excess of 350K with minimal MLCIN should be enough to spark off scattered showers. While overall wind speeds in the lower troposphere are higher today, shear magnitudes remain weak, especially above 3km. Cold Pool propagation and aggregation of these showers should spawn further flank development of showers and thunderstorms. Due to the higher windspeeds aloft today compared to yesterday, storm and cold pool motions will likely be 10kts faster than yesterday. Therefore ground relative windspeeds should be slightly higher today. The question will be storm coverage, which we really won't know for sure until things fire after 3PM. CAM's are hinting that areas south of US50 are more likely than up near the M/D line.

 

The surging satellite appearance of the storms Thu reminded me of a tropical squall line.  Mesoscale factors, such as the cool pool, are the driving force due to lack of winds aloft/deep layer wind shear.

[mkellerm]

We are stuck in our neighborhood near Annapolis.  There is a tree across our street with a diameter of about 2 feet blocking the road.  

The county won’t be able to get to it for a while, since the main road into our subdivision is also blocked by trees.  A little further down, there is now what looks like an alley through the woods where all of the trees have been knocked down.  
 

In our back yard, a 120-foot tall tulip poplar blew down.  The rootball is about four feet taller than I am.

[Random Chaos]

Saw two separate storm reports of 83mph winds just south of US50 through the Annapolis area. Looked like the main cell went just south of the 50 corridor from Parole to the Bay Bridge. I’m just north of that and didn’t get anything severe level, but lost power maybe 5 minutes ahead of the storm - based on outaged 2-3 substations on Broadneck probably all lost power, like a tree (or trees) down nesr the naval academy or along St Margaret’s Rd. Where the feed lines for the substations go.

0904 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 7 ESE Cape St. Claire   38.99N  76.34W

06/12/2026  M83 mph          ANZ532             MD   Mesonet

 

0904 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 S Cape St. Claire     39.00N  76.45W

06/12/2026  M75 mph          Anne Arundel       MD   Mesonet

 

0844 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SE Parole             38.98N  76.54W

06/12/2026  M83 mph          Anne Arundel       MD   Mesonet

 

[high risk]

Sunday still looking very good on the 00Z CAMs.   Disagreement on whether storms fire early on the pre-frontal trough or wait for the actual front later, but the shear is massively improved from what we've had the past few days.

[RDM]

Lost power about 1915 when the line went through.  The wind/rain was blindingly heavy for just a few mins, but that was enough to cause havoc.  Was a surreal event to see even for an old fart like me who has seen a lot.  

Power is still out atm ivo much of Vienna/Oakton.  Crew hasn't even been dispatched yet on our specific outage, which is impacting 510 customers.  Getting a crew dispatched is the first step to get beyond the "pending investigation" status.  We'll be lucky if service is restored by sunrise. 

It was very odd how the power went out this time.  Normally the transformers try to reset up to 3 times before kicking off for good (according to the VA Power lineman).  In this case, the power went off/on several times and then flickered very bad for several minutes in unison with the typical "boom" from the transformers; before I shut off the service at the main breakers to protect electronics.  We've never experienced that sort of service shutdown before.

We're still on generator power to run the basics.  Still trying to convince my wife it's time for a whole-house auto-start system.  With the frequency in how often we lose power I'm about ready to invest in a proper system.  We're on well and septic and the surge of 220VAC well pump is the main drain on our 9500 watt generator.  Currently 35,000 customers out on Dominion's outage site.  

[yoda]

2/5/30 on morning day 2 SPC OTLk.  30 wind is from BR eastward to Eastern Shore

 

 

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
   expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
   evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
   Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

   ...Mid-Atlantic Region...

   An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
   morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
   pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
   Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
   impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
   afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
   around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
   flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
   the afternoon and evening.

   Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
   of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
   vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
   return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
   should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
   cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
   destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
   eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
   with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
   less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor. 

   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
   lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the
   Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
   afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
   concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
   will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage
   probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
   subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
   to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ. 

   Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
   afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
   Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
   deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
   pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the
   evening.

 

[yoda]

Oh okay then SPC... @high risk @Kmlwx @wxmeddler @Eskimo Joe

 

 

 

 

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0253 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Days 5-6/Wed-Thu -- Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley to Ohio Valley and
   Mid-Atlantic...

   An upper trough is forecast to deepen over the Upper Midwest/Great
   Lakes on Wednesday. As this occurs, an intensifying 500 mb jet
   streak will develop across the central Plains and increase to 80-100
   kt as it moves into the Mid-MS Valley Wednesday night, and spreads
   eastward across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Thursday. 

   At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern/central
   Plains late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. As this occurs,
   increasing southerly low-level flow will quickly transport rich Gulf
   moisture northward into the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley by Wednesday
   afternoon as the surface low moves across IA and a trailing cold
   front moves eastward in tandem with the low across portions of the
   central Plains and Mid-MS Valley. Strong to extreme instability is
   forecast across the strongly sheared warm sector. An all-hazards
   severe thunderstorm event appears likely. An intense southwesterly
   low-level jet is expected to develop during the evening. This could
   support upscale growth into an MCS moving across portions of the
   Midwest Wednesday night, posing a risk for swaths of damaging winds.

   This system will spread east on Thursday across parts of the Ohio
   Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. A continued risk for all
   severe hazards, and possible MCS with damaging winds, will persist
   as the mid/upper jet streak is forecast to remain quite strong as it
   overspreads a seasonally moist airmass.

   While some timing differences of aforementioned features is evident
   in various NWP guidance, overall medium range consensus and mean
   calibrated ML/AI guidance suggests a multi-day severe episode is
   likely as this system overspreads portions of the Midwest to the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, though the 15 percent risk areas may shift
   in the coming days as details become better resolved, and higher
   probabilities are possible in subsequent outlooks. The southern
   extent of severe potential is more uncertain across parts of the
   Plains toward the TN Valley as these areas will remain further
   removed from stronger flow aloft.

   ..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX for Sunday 

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry conditions today, severe thunderstorms
return Sunday.

Quiescent wx returns today with mostly sunny skies and lower
humidity. Temps will still be 5-8 degrees above average for
highs (upper 80s to around 90), but it will feel cooler and
less humid as dewpoints drop into upper 50s and low 60s.

Sun features the next chance for severe wx. SPC has maintained
a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for the area, however they have
increased the wind probs to 30%. Could see upgrade to Level 3
out of 5 (Enhanced Risk) depending on model trends over the next
24 hours. Stay tuned for the latest...

In terms of the meteorology, a sw will rotate around the base
of an UL trof Sun. Ahead of the wave, southerly flow will usher
in anomalous moisture with PWs nearing 2" and dewpoints near
70F. The sw will bring height falls aloft near peak heating
resulting in notable instability. The above will overlap with
increasing wind shear. The combination of increasing
instability, shear, and large scale forcing for ascent ahead of
the shortwave and an approaching cold front will lead to the
development of widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon,
some of which could be severe. Model soundings indicate steep
low level lapse rates (especially for the Mid-Atlantic) which
will result in higher DCAPE values and therefore stronger wind
gusts. There`s still a fair amount of spread in guidance with
respect to the timing and exact placement of the storms, but as
of now the threat looks to be greatest to the east of the Blue
Ridge. Some guidance has discrete supercells ahead of the front,
followed by linear segments which make sense given
unidirectional shear. The main threats with storms will damaging
winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning. WPC has a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal ERO) for the
metros, but progressive nature and prevailing drought look to
limit the overall flood threat. The system`s cold front will
move through Sunday night, advecting cooler and drier air into
the region, which will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms
to an end.

[Kmlwx]

This has the feeling of being one of our "runs" of severe risk. Been a while. When this happens it can last a week or two anecdotally 

[vortex95]

The DY6 SPC outlook?  It is definitely warranted.  An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec.  Wind fields are clearly high end for this time of year.  GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18 -- 70 kt 500, 60 kt 700, 50 kt 850, 40 kt 925 over Mid-Atlantic. That means business and this time of year w/ higher CAPE?  Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event  June 23, 1944 comes to mind so does June 8-9. 1953.  Also July 10, 1989 (New England's largest single day tornado outbreak for number of tornadoes).

Derecho not out of the question.  Svr mode is up in the air at this range.

Not overstating things here for potential at all.  But of course, it's all in the details.  *But* SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year?  That says something!  You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up!
 

[Kmlwx]

 

[dailylurker]

32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

Maybe we're on a hot hand. Last evening an orange thunderstorm rolled through around sunset. Just east of me got blased with a downburst as the storm started to collapse. I might ride down 450 and check it out later on. 

[Kmlwx]

2008 and 2012 both had a "heater" period where things just wanted to pop off more often that year. Obviously it's probably due to persistence and various patterns wanting to repeat for a little while (same as in winter for us sometimes!). 

2011 as well - heck....looking back that was a HOT period of years clustered together. 

[GramaxRefugee]

11 hours ago, mkellerm said:

We are stuck in our neighborhood near Annapolis.  There is a tree across our street with a diameter of about 2 feet blocking the road.  

The county won’t be able to get to it for a while, since the main road into our subdivision is also blocked by trees.  A little further down, there is now what looks like an alley through the woods where all of the trees have been knocked down.  
 

In our back yard, a 120-foot tall tulip poplar blew down.  The rootball is about four feet taller than I am.

Dog's vet office on Crownsville Rd sent a text this morning that they still don't have power and several trees are blocking access.  Can't open today.

[IronTy]

12 hours ago, mkellerm said:

We are stuck in our neighborhood near Annapolis.  There is a tree across our street with a diameter of about 2 feet blocking the road.  

The county won’t be able to get to it for a while, since the main road into our subdivision is also blocked by trees.  A little further down, there is now what looks like an alley through the woods where all of the trees have been knocked down.  
 

In our back yard, a 120-foot tall tulip poplar blew down.  The rootball is about four feet taller than I am.

Thank goodness it didn't hit your house!  A few years ago a guy down the street had something similar - it was an easily 100ft tulip tree that was field-grown so it was just massive, in the middle of his yard.  Storm blew it right over and the spread of the root ball was taller than his single story ranch home.  For some stupid reason he had it all cut up.  I would have at least let the root ball remain as it was so huge.  

[high risk]

6 hours ago, vortex95 said:

The DY6 SPC outlook?  It is definitely warranted.  An unusually strong sfc low for mid June is fcst (below 990 mb) to track across southern Ontario and Quebec.  Wind fields are clearly high end for this time of year.  GFS and ECMWF same idea on 6/18 -- 70 kt 500, 60 kt 700, 50 kt 850, 40 kt 925 over Mid-Atlantic. That means business and this time of year w/ higher CAPE?  Anywhere from the OH Valley-Mid Atlantic-Northeast may be in for a sig tor event  June 23, 1944 comes to mind so does June 8-9. 1953.  Also July 10, 1989 (New England's largest single day tornado outbreak for number of tornadoes).

Derecho not out of the question.  Svr mode is up in the air at this range.

Not overstating things here for potential at all.  But of course, it's all in the details.  *But* SPC outlooking SVR this part of the country on DY6 this time of year?  That says something!  You don't get that w/o a synoptically-evident set up!
 

   June 1, 2011 also comes to mind when looking at this setup.   You're absolutely correct that a Day 6 outlook for this part of the country is a rare thing, and there certainly is high end potential.    Verbatim, I think that the overnight solutions would really favor New England for the greatest potential, but we'll see how the synoptic evolve over the next few days.

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

   June 1, 2011 also comes to mind when looking at this setup.   You're absolutely correct that a Day 6 outlook for this part of the country is a rare thing, and there certainly is high end potential.    Verbatim, I think that the overnight solutions would really favor New England for the greatest potential, but we'll see how the synoptic evolve over the next few days.

You mean June 1, 2012? The moderate risk day that almost went full gang busters?