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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Could tomorrow be a possible severe weather day?

nam4km_2026033112_034_38.4--78.02.png

We have strong low level lapse rates, good CAPE and some turning of winds with height - though next to no increase with height. Seems like some sort of thunderstorms should be likely along anything that could trigger forcing. 

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Maybe?  Afternoon day 2 SPC disco

.Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
   Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid 
   upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
   widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
   subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
   kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
   organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
   isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
   severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
   confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
   upgrade at this time.
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Second tstorm of the day for my yard. Nothing severe but some good gusts with the first one. One right now is pretty noisy but looks like the severe stuff will stay to my NW. Enjoying the booms and rumbles either way 

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  • 4 weeks later...

SPC has us in a day three marginal risk which prompted me to take a look

ref1km.us_ma.png

NAM has a line of broken storms enter the region after a bit of clearing with 1000 CAPE values running right along I-64. We have 40-50kt of bulk shear and a good bit of lower level turning. Reminds me a bit of March 15th but less extreme and maybe a bit more heating. 

Wonder what yall think about it

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