March Madness

[weatherwiz]

So close, yet so far

[kdxken]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

So close, yet so far

If you had the time that would be a decent road trip.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

If you had the time that would be a decent road trip.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

[radarman]

Hard pass on a 16+hr drive to chase linear mode low topped thunderstorms with fast moving embedded tornadoes.  If you even see one you're probably too close. 

But take the drive out if it and of course

[jbenedet]

Sun is winning here at the moment. 
 

Gonna be a fight all day but currently mostly cloudy and fair weather bright conditions…

[CoastalWx]

Looks like one of these @Sey-Mour Snowhydro events?

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I noticed that too. Ground was not frozen. But I know earlier in Feb it definitely was. I think warmer temps and solar insolation even through the snow helps thaw.

Yes, outside of my driveway (the unpaved half) my yard is not wet or spongy at all. Even 90% of my driveway has dried out so not overly concerned with the rain tomorrow.

[dendrite]

NAM over LI

 

Date: 42 hour NAM valid 6Z TUE 17 MAR 26
Station: 40.89,-72.56
Latitude:   40.89
Longitude: -72.56
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -54                                                                 
SFC  993     2   9.3   9.0  98  0.3   9.2 165  36 283.0 284.3 282.6 303.1  7.27
  2  950   376  14.7  14.5  99  0.1  14.6 176  86 292.1 294.0 289.8 323.4 11.02
  3  900   834  13.5  13.4  99  0.2  13.4 187 101 295.4 297.4 290.7 326.4 10.76
  4  850  1314  11.2  11.0  99  0.2  11.1 197 106 297.9 299.6 290.6 326.2  9.73
  5  800  1818   8.2   7.8  97  0.4   8.0 199 100 299.9 301.4 290.1 324.5  8.33
  6  750  2350   5.6   5.1  96  0.5   5.3 198  96 302.7 304.0 290.2 324.6  7.34
  7  700  2912   2.3   1.9  97  0.4   2.1 195  90 305.0 306.2 290.0 324.1  6.29
  8  650  3508  -0.7  -1.0  98  0.3  -0.9 196  89 308.2 309.2 290.3 325.1  5.48
  9  600  4143  -4.2  -4.5  98  0.3  -4.3 201  90 311.3 312.1 290.5 325.6  4.58
 10  550  4824  -8.6  -9.4  93  0.9  -8.9 205  89 313.9 314.6 290.2 324.8  3.40
 11  500  5557 -12.6 -13.9  90  1.3 -13.1 205  87 317.6 318.1 290.6 326.2  2.60

[dendrite]

The COD 3k gust maps are still bringing the wind. Ginxy’s maps probably show 100mph+

[Damage In Tolland]

If NAM is right widespread issues tomorrow night

[Sey-Mour Snow]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like one of these @Sey-Mour Snowhydro events?

Ya just posted about it on the socials 3-4”+ possible 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If NAM is right widespread issues tomorrow night

Unfortunately…NAM

[met_fan]

16 hours ago, tunafish said:

Definitely work and you have to be very strategic.  To be clear, unless it's a wind blown storm, I only take 10 measurements at 12z daily, not every 6-hr new-snow ob.

I also have one of those fancy 40" sticks with a handle, plus an 8' wingspan, so I can space far from my feet.  Helps great deal.

8 foot wingspan?!?

[weatherwiz]

Tomorrow is one of the most impressive setups I think I've seen for line-embedded tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That is some serious turning in the lowest 3km with what looks to be more than sufficient CAPE, not to mention the timing of the strongest forcing seems to coincide quite well with the best ingredients. 

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The COD 3k gust maps are still bringing the wind. Ginxy’s maps probably show 100mph+

Ginxy doesn't make maps.

[weatherwiz]

Probably can't rule out some strong thunderstorms during the early afternoon along the edge of higher theta-e air working in 

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Unfortunately…NAM

H to 3rd not that far off from NAM but still a big difference in 50-55mph vs 60-70mph in terms of damage potential 

[tunafish]

15 minutes ago, met_fan said:

8 foot wingspan?!?

 

39/16

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ginxy doesn't make maps.

The maps that are vendor generated 

[Damage In Tolland]

H to 3rd did increase some 

[codfishsnowman]

13 hours ago, cmillzz said:

Honestly so much bust potential with this though. If the defo band fails to materialize, going to bust hard in many spots.

Those forecasts in the Midwest I feel often over do it on a area wide scale. But there will be a narrow band were it's potentially life threatening. A lot of areas will qualify blizzard conditions with much less snow than forecast because of severe winds.