March Madness

[weatherwiz]

I guess it depends on ones definition of "wintry threats" and potential expectations. As cool or chilly as the pattern looks ahead, there don't seem to be much in the way of prospects to hope for a storm. It's a rather benign pattern, generally associated with weak systems with little room or opportunity to really amplify. If one is just looking for snow showers or whatever, obviously that is still very much in game and always in game, even into mid-April. NNE of course is a different story...always potential there, even into early May. Pretty blue colors on the precip type maps with FROPAS don't mean there is a snow threat. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

March can suck here, but holy hell at Fairbanks this month.

GWDLT

I wonder where Anchorage ranks too...I feel like its been quite cold, even for them. I mean they aren't usually terrible because they get moderate a bit by the water.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder where Anchorage ranks too...I feel like its been quite cold, even for them. I mean they aren't usually terrible because they get moderate a bit by the water.

Well BN but not to the Fairbanks extreme. 

[dryslot]

A -22.9°F departure is impressive.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Well BN but not to the Fairbanks extreme. 

For one of my classes we do a class forecasting contest and I thought one of the cities was going to be Fairbanks b/c that’s what the professor listed for the week and I freaked the heck out  thank god he had changed it. 

[weatherwiz]

Nooooo Chuck Norris died. That’s a blow to the day. Walker Texas Ranger is the first TV show I ever remember 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nooooo Chuck Norris died. That’s a blow to the day. Walker Texas Ranger is the first TV show I ever remember 

I was just watching a video of him yesterday! 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nooooo Chuck Norris died. That’s a blow to the day. Walker Texas Ranger is the first TV show I ever remember 

This is questionable as to if he has or not.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

This is questionable as to if he has or not.

Hopefully it isn’t true but local news just shared his family confirmed 

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully it isn’t true but local news just shared his family confirmed 

Then it is, If the family shared it, The original source had cred issues.

[tamarack]

Three hours of feathers 10A-1P yesterday, 0.1-0.2" on the road and leaves, 0.4-0.6" on the old snow (maybe 75% cover in the woods) on 0.01" LE.  I called it 0.3" SN.\

GYX "at least, most likely, 10% chance" thru 008Z Monday is 0.5/6/12.  Probably closest to the 0.5" as the parade of midgets continues.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully it isn’t true but local news just shared his family confirmed 

He’ll be ok. Death had a near Chuck Norris experience. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Only a matter of time before we get some of those prolonged ridges here. Doesn't take much. Our first warm-up last week set record highs here and the earliest 80F at NYC. 

As an increasing frequency of observation, I argue that's been occurring less in summers over recent decade(s). 

There's a plausible reason for it too. 

I believe there is an emerging resonance feedback ( constructive interference) between the perennial rest state of the flow over the N/A continent, and the CC-related augmentation of heat potential.  Combining those to background factors, favors in other words. 

Longer version:

First,  the perennial rest state pattern across N/A features a flat ridge tendency in the west that downstream flattens out to an impression of trough in the east, before the flow escapes out into the Atlantic.  That means that at all times there is an exertion for ridging in the west, much to the chagrin of the "stop" and "shits" emoji wielding assholes on the forum.  It's just that it's not 50/50.  It's like a 42/58 thing heh. 

Second, warm air means higher heights.  

Now, when where there is heat in the W and SW, that means you have to combine those aspects - such that this results a resonant feedback ( constructive interference) between the fixed background state and the transience of the warm weather's wave function passing through.  

In short, the feed back enhances itself when that duality super-imposes ( synoptically).   And since neither the back ground fix exertion is ever leaving, nor is CC going the other way... As an after-note, this lends to the hypothesis that exaggerated ridges are sort of robbing eastern N/A from experiencing these synergistic heat bursts that have been occurring acround the world.   Pac NW/June of 2021 ... the few times in NW Europe.  Australian.  SE Asia springs... etc.  Those regions are not as "protected" by N/A built in circumstance of heat deflection.  

I think this is why NW NE and SE Canada have seen an uptick in the April and early May heat waves...because the DP side of all this hasn't seasonally moved into those regions, such that early heat slips that one mitigating factor, and only has to then overcome the background fixed state.  Which the pattern does some times. I mean..this is not an absolute deliminator process at large scales - it's a 60/40 thing.   And, by the time we get to mid/late June+ ... the CC -charged footprint teaming up with the background fix state, then adding DPs holding the temps down ... you know, it fits. Because we are contributing our warmth to the total warming pot in night times lows, which in the summer, are highly modulated by the DPs at that end of the diurnal temperature cycle.   

I think if there's ever a time when that 40 side of the 60/40 ( hypothetical ) delivers a shock and awe heat burst N-E of the Mason Dixie, it will probably be favored to occur in that mid May to mid June window.  By July, we'll probably be limited to the 96/75 + upstream continent ozone reflecting particles type heat.

[SouthCoastMA]

86 years old, it happens

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Nooooo Chuck Norris died. That’s a blow to the day. Walker Texas Ranger is the first TV show I ever remember 

I use to watch that show all the time. I think i have to start watching reruns again.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

He’ll be ok. Death had a near Chuck Norris experience. 

These jokes are spreading like wildfire lol

[Typhoon Tip]

CNN confirms Chuck Morris passing fwiw

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

CNN confirms Chuck Morris passing fwiw

 

He died also ? Rip Mr Morris.

What a morning. First Norris and now Morris.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I use to watch that show all the time. I think i have to start watching reruns again.

It was phenomenal. It sucks too because the show ended with a massive cliff hanger. They did the movie I think it was after the show ended and were supposed to do a part 2 but it just never materialized. I think there are some channels (I see it on Hulu and Pluto TV) which plays episodes all the time. 

[dryslot]

12z Nam lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As an increasing frequency of observation, I argue that's been occurring less in summers over recent decade(s). 

There's a plausible reason for it too. 

I believe there is an emerging resonance feedback ( constructive interference) between the perennial rest state of the flow over the N/A continent, and the CC-related augmentation of heat potential.  Combining those to background factors, favors in other words. 

Longer version:

First,  the perennial rest state pattern across N/A features a flat ridge tendency in the west that downstream flattens out to an impression of trough in the east, before the flow escapes out into the Atlantic.  That means that at all times there is an exertion for ridging in the west, much to the chagrin of the "stop" and "shits" emoji wielding assholes on the forum.  It's just that it's not 50/50.  It's like a 42/58 thing heh. 

Second, warm air means higher heights.  

Now, when where there is heat in the W and SW, that means you have to combine those aspects - such that this results a resonant feedback ( constructive interference) between the fixed background state and the transience of the warm weather's wave function passing through.  

In short, the feed back enhances itself when that duality super-imposes ( synoptically).   And since neither the back ground fix exertion is ever leaving, nor is CC going the other way... As an after-note, this lends to the hypothesis that exaggerated ridges are sort of robbing eastern N/A from experiencing these synergistic heat bursts that have been occurring acround the world.   Pac NW/June of 2021 ... the few times in NW Europe.  Australian.  SE Asia springs... etc.  Those regions are not as "protected" by N/A built in circumstance of heat deflection.  

I think this is why NW NE and SE Canada have seen an uptick in the April and early May heat waves...because the DP side of all this hasn't seasonally moved into those regions, such that early heat slips that one mitigating factor, and only has to then overcome the background fixed state.  Which the pattern does some times. I mean..this is not an absolute deliminator process at large scales - it's a 60/40 thing.   And, by the time we get to mid/late June+ ... the CC -charged footprint teaming up with the background fix state, then adding DPs holding the temps down ... you know, it fits. Because we are contributing our warmth to the total warming pot in night times lows, which in the summer, are highly modulated by the DPs at that end of the diurnal temperature cycle.   

I think if there's ever a time when that 40 side of the 60/40 ( hypothetical ) delivers a shock and awe heat burst N-E of the Mason Dixie, it will probably be favored to occur in that mid May to mid June window.  By July, we'll probably be limited to the 96/75 + upstream continent ozone reflecting particles type heat.

@WinterWolfalways appreciates these in-depth dives on the ramifications/feedbacks of CC.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Nam lol.

Would be fitting here for this winter

[Cold Miser]

Happy Spring, and the 4-6 weeks of misery that starts the period off.

 

[CoastalWx]

Today is nice at least. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

86 years old, it happens

It comes for us all so who cares?  

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would be fitting here for this winter

We approve.

Snowing here. Better rates took the temp down two degrees. SLK is down to .25 viz.

30/26

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

He’ll be ok. Death had a near Chuck Norris experience. 

They didn't bury him 6 feet under, the world moved 6 feet up.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

He died also ? Rip Mr Morris.

What a morning. First Norris and now Morris.

It's like 'Chuck NoMorris'  

[ariof]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder where Anchorage ranks too...I feel like its been quite cold, even for them. I mean they aren't usually terrible because they get moderate a bit by the water.

 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Well BN but not to the Fairbanks extreme. 

 

59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A -22.9°F departure is impressive.

Not to the Fairbanks extreme for, like, mid-January, but pretty darned cold for March. FAI is currently sitting at -15.5° for March. The previous coldest March was -6.6°. The next week will be warmer, with an average around 0, but they should still wind up around -10 for the month, which will easily be their coldest month on record. And that was after their coldest December since 1980, and cold Jan and Feb, so their DJFM will be anomalies of -19, -6, -7 and -20. Plus a lot of snow, they were already above average and Feb dropped 39" (their average is 10"). They should be in the top 10 years with >30" of snow depth (48 days as of yesterday)

Pretty deep winter up there. 

ANC has been warmer until this month, but got 40" of snow in January and this month is running a -15 anomaly. While FAI had one day above average (by like 0.1°) ANC is at like 34 days below average and will add to that for the foreseeable future (they're not progged above freezing for at least a week, and should be at ~ the third longest such streak).

And down in Juneau the story is more the snow. 82" in a -12 Dec (depth of 50") which was gone by Jan 15 after a week of rain, but 28" in Feb and 52" so far this month and they're sitting at 184" for the year, 10" off the record, and they should be close by the end of next week.

This guy's feed is a pretty good compendium of how cold it has been up there this winter. (Things like "Juneau has had more snow than Fairbanks and Anchorage combined, and both of them are above their averages.")

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It comes for us all so who cares?  

We approve.

Snowing here. Better rates took the temp down two degrees. SLK is down to .25 viz.

30/26

I’m still not sure what to expect.  Models keep printing very heavy precip rates.

Like 3 hours of 0.1”< QPF snowfall and like 0.60” in 4 hours this afternoon.