Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm genuinely confused what part of this is even remotely controversial or complicated.  The boundary is warming.  That is a fact.  And over the last 10 years there have been a number of storms where boundary temps were very marginal...within a degree or two of freezing in my area for a large part of the storm, where any colder would have helped me quite a bit.  I can't tell you how much.  No I can't say it would have been exactly 1f or 2f or 3f colder at a specific year.  But it would have been colder. and ANY colder would have meant more snow.  30 years ago I would have got more snow from todays setup.  I can't say if it would have been 1" more or maybe 4" more but it would have been more...why do we need to debate about exactly how much more.  We do know that DC and Baltimore have lost about 30% of their snow on the whole to warming.  While we can't predict exactly what it means to a specific storm the ones with marginal boundary temps are the ones being impacted most.  I really really really don't get why this is even a controversial thing, its common sense.  

02-03 I had 125".. that wasn't too long ago. We have been in a horrible -PNA/+NAO pattern for the last 10 years. Take decadal cycle flux out of the equation and we are maybe 10-15% less. 

[Mrs.J]

Still getting light snow. Actually have a dusting on grassy surfaces now.

[dailylurker]

I'm definitely noticing a big change in thr snow in the past 20 minutes. It's really blowing around. The low is really cranking and cooling the column. 

[shoshanaz]

Pikesville/Greenspring (NW Baltimore) about 2 inches on our deck table. 32 degrees.  Sidewalks coated.

[blizzardmeiser]

4.25

[RDM]

7 minutes ago, scope1 said:

Power coming and going 

Same here NW of Vienna.  Had several hits to the grid over the last 5 mins as the wind picks up.  There's a lot of weight on the trees with this paste.  Expect we'll loose power at some point soon.  

[attml]

NWS cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Anne Arundel County and surrounding area and cut it back to a Winter Weather Advisory.  Now only calling for an addition 1-3 inches.

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
850 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

MDZ011-014-506-231000-
/O.CAN.KLWX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-260223T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-260223T1500Z/
Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Howard-
850 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches.
  Winds 4gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, and Southern
  Baltimore Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

 

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm definitely noticing a big change in thr snow in the past 20 minutes. It's really blowing around. The low is really cranking and cooling the column. 

Radar is showing band after band after band after band emanating from the developing low right up to you.

We got lotta more, lotta more. You're gonna get destroyed

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

02-03 I had 125".. that wasn't too long ago. We have been in a horrible -PNA/+NAO pattern for the last 10 years. Take decadal cycle flux out of the equation and we are maybe 10-15% less. 

Chuck I accounted for Decadal flux in my 30% statement.  If we used the last 10 years as a judge Baltimore has lost over 50% of its snowfall since 100 years ago baltimore averaged about 27" and they are averaging about 12" the last 10 years.  My 30% loss is based on its long term mean snowfall regression factoring in shorter turn fluxuations.  Yes we have been in a particularly bad cycle and that is why over the last 10 years Baltimore is about 55% below normal.  That will go up...we will have some -NAO+PDO cycle where Baltimore Averages 20" someday.  But they probably will never have a period where they average close to 30" again like they did 100 years ago!  The ups are less up and the downs are more down.  This current cycle is 20% worse than the previous worst 8-10 year periods on record!  You are acting like warming isn't hurting but it is...clearly.  The cycle is making it even worse but the long term 100 year trend in snowfall is down regardless of the short term patterns.  

[dailylurker]

I must say. I nailed this location. Flat out smoke show.

[MDSnow93]

@Eskimo Joe nothing major, but the bigger branch barely protrudes into the road a bit

[Nomz]

Finally starting to accumulate in Georgetown. Some areas are just puddles now and probably won't accumulate at all, but nearing an inch on favorable surfaces. Pretty hopeful we'll get to at least 2"

 

 

[bncho]

You know we're doing well in a storm when we revert back to PSU vs Chuck on global warming

edit: PSU vs Chuck and CAPE

[Kay]

While others to my west obsess on the n*rl*n...I switch to DOX for better hallucinations 

[Ltrain]

32° Severna Park. The snow is finally starting to accumulate on sidewalks and the road after 4 hours of snow. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You know we're doing well in a storm when we revert back to PSU vs Chuck on global warming

Personally I’ve loved this storm. Might not be the high end totals but beautiful sticky snow makes it feel like a winter wonderland 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm genuinely confused what part of this is even remotely controversial or complicated.  The boundary is warming.  That is a fact.  And over the last 10 years there have been a number of storms where boundary temps were very marginal...within a degree or two of freezing in my area for a large part of the storm, where any colder would have helped me quite a bit.  I can't tell you how much.  No I can't say it would have been exactly 1f or 2f or 3f colder at a specific year.  But it would have been colder. and ANY colder would have meant more snow.  30 years ago I would have got more snow from todays setup.  I can't say if it would have been 1" more or maybe 4" more but it would have been more...why do we need to debate about exactly how much more.  We do know that DC and Baltimore have lost about 30% of their snow on the whole to warming.  While we can't predict exactly what it means to a specific storm the ones with marginal boundary temps are the ones being impacted most.  I really really really don't get why this is even a controversial thing, its common sense.  

 

ETA: and the delmarva and NJ would have had more snow also!  They lost snow to rain today also before it flipped and then had crazy low rations...a little colder and places that get 12" might have got 15 or 18".  So even there it hurt them.  

The last storm we had was very cold- historically so for the period that followed. Several storms such as the beach blizzards in 2017 and 18 were cold powder. I don't disagree with the general concept, but it simply does NOT apply in all cases and you beat that dead horse constantly. We get it. I remember forecasts failing for not being cold enough as a kid up in your world back in the 80s. Always counterpoints to these arguments.

[T. August]

1 minute ago, Kay said:

While others to my west obsess on the n*rl*n...I switch to DOX for better hallucinations 

We were so close to more… looks like favored spots in Cecil and northern DE got 4-6” so far

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, MDSnow93 said:

@Eskimo Joe nothing major, but the bigger branch barely protrudes into the road a bit

Thank you. Always appreciate the information.

[SnowtoRain]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I must say. I nailed this location. Flat out smoke show.

That should be the epicenter. That band is stealing all the energy

[87storms]

Getting some grass stickage here. All it wants to do now is snow.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

we will have some -NAO+PDO cycle where Baltimore Averages 20" someday

That may be sooner rather than later given how the last 2 seasons have gone.

[hstorm]

30 minutes ago, bncho said:

What's going on with this norlun trough? It's giving me like 0.5" per hour

I would enjoy what’s falling and be happy that we have done relatively well.  Just came back from a jebwalk and it is a winter wonderland here!

[JakkelWx]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I must say. I nailed this location. Flat out smoke show.

just over 7 inches here measured in a few different spots in my front yard.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Well overall really boring event lol.  Glad I spent 8 days looking at my phone about this lololololol.  Welp it’s been a fun winter folks and now it’s on to spring and sports and outdoors stuff. Overall grade B- because it was cold and the sleet storm was pretty crazy. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Chuck I accounted for Decadal flux in my 30% statement.  If we used the last 10 years as a judge Baltimore has lost over 50% of its snowfall since 100 years ago baltimore averaged about 27" and they are averaging about 12" the last 10 years.  My 30% loss is based on its long term mean snowfall regression factoring in shorter turn fluxuations.  Yes we have been in a particularly bad cycle and that is why over the last 10 years Baltimore is about 55% below normal.  That will go up...we will have some -NAO+PDO cycle where Baltimore Averages 20" someday.  But they probably will never have a period where they average close to 30" again like they did 100 years ago!  The ups are less up and the downs are more down.  This current cycle is 20% worse than the previous worst 8-10 year periods on record!  You are acting like warming isn't hurting but it is...clearly.  The cycle is making it even worse but the long term 100 year trend in snowfall is down regardless of the short term patterns.  

We are so sensitive to the freezing line though. The lowest Baltimore's daily high goes is 38F and DC is 40F. So we pretty much need below average temps at any time of the year to get snow. Therefore when you have a constant, perpetually bad pattern for an extended amount of time (Feb-March 2018-2026 DM anomaly in the PNA region is 160% #2 on record), this area can snow drought for sure. You know this, and there can be 60", 80", 100" snow seasons here as well. So I think you are looking at too short of a timeframe in an unfavorable cycle. But this is more about people enjoying their snow so maybe we can finish some other time. 

[THEREALTOR1]

Felton, DE 19943

21:47

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The last storm we had was very cold- historically so for the period that followed. Several storms such as the beach blizzards in 2017 and 18 were cold powder. I don't disagree with the general concept, but it simply does NOT apply in all cases and you beat that dead horse constantly. We get it. I remember forecasts failing for not being cold enough as a kid up in your world back in the 80s. Always counterpoints to these arguments.

Then why is DC and Baltimores average snowfall declining? 

[Kay]

Just now, T. August said:

We were so close to more… looks like favored spots in Cecil and northern DE got 4-6” so far

Indeed. I think a little more could come our way. I haven't even measured. Half inch maybe?

[THEREALTOR1]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I must say. I nailed this location. Flat out smoke show.

Are you at the Harrington Slots??? I'm about 5mi N/NW of you if so