Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[D-Train]

Pouring snow over us in S. Leesburg / near Dulles. Look at the radar.




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[NattyBo]

First flakes of the day spotted in Rockville.... dinner plate sized...but it's still 99% rain.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Rain in Fallston. Yay.

I have flakes mixing in. You don't? 

[EHoffman]

Moderate rain here.  No flake sighting as of yet.

[weatherCCB]

Rain 

37

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Dumping snow here. Still salty about the Norlun moving east thiugh

It hasn’t happened yet…

[bncho]

All snow. Quickly dropped to 34/33. Earlier than expected!

[MillvilleWx]

I think I'll just come out and say the nowcasting trends of the expected upper level behavior will probably lead to a lower end of any accumulation range for areas west of the Bay, expect those under the norlun trough. I think even I will get about 4-5" or so just west of the Bay. Eastern shore still looks ripe. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm not seeing a favorable 5H progression for prolonged snow here. The jog east-northeast of the SLP once it gets to the latitude of DE is basically on all guidance now. Unless that changes, probably going to be tough to reach >6" for anywhere west the western shore of the Bay. Northeast MD, Eastern Shore, and points northeast should still do well enough. I'm going to enjoy whatever I get. 

[87storms]

Just mangled flakes here until you get up to 800’+.

[wolfpackwxDC]

Big, fat flakes in western Arlington 

[Ravens94]

301 bowling green

[Imgoinhungry]

Still a mix, but more snowflakes than rain now just SE of frederick.


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[kristia]

Grassy surfaces are covered and driveway is caving in some spots. Walter doesn’t like the word “snow”. 

[MillvilleWx]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Western Montgomery and Loudon, I think, just upgraded to Warnings.

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger. 

[Ji]

Dumping snow here. Still salty about the Norlun moving east thiugh

We should be. 10 days of tracking just to have to be in a 15 mile wide band

[Ji]

Dumping snow here. Still salty about the Norlun moving east thiugh

We should be. 10 days of tracking just to have to be in a 15 mile wide band

[laissezpasser]

chunky rain now in NW DC, tenleytown

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger. 

@yoda says that that area has been warned for awhile, so I may have been mistaken.  I swear that the advisory area shrank and the warned area increased, but I'm old enough to know that I am wrong a lot. 

[LeesburgWx]

NGL, surprised the ground is completely white already

[SnowenOutThere]

31 minutes ago, bncho said:

NAM 3k norlun trough larger and more west @Terpeast 

Oh that is squared perfectly over my backyard. 

[Grothar of Herndon]

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

@yoda says that that area has been warned for awhile, so I may have been mistaken.  I swear that the advisory area shrank and the warned area increased, but I'm old enough to know that I am wrong a lot. 

I believe it was extended to cover all Montgomery and Loundon counties instead of just western sections

[NorthArlington101]

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger. 

Is this you soft launching it not going straight through Arlington

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

We should be. 10 days of tracking just to have to be in a 15 mile wide band

Absolutely. All the hate you get for being a downer and you often get the last laugh. Yes you make plenty of dumb ass posts, but the futility for many areas has been at all time highs the last decade. 

[osfan24]

17 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Being an Osfan has resulted in you also being miserable during every event.

Maybe. The January event was the only good one in a decade so it hasn’t been hard!

[SnowenOutThere]

Dropped into 33 degrees but still a rain snow mix. 

[stormy]

16 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

That makes sense then that it hit you first just to my north , wrap around moisture flow from the NNE... That LP must be starting to really bomb..

On the NAM 3k at 700 mb this has the appearance of the Norlan Trough. Farther west than progged. 

[kfwalther]

We have big flakes in Leesburg, VA! Just started over the past 30 mins


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[MillvilleWx]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Is this you soft launching it not going straight through Arlington

It's going to be close!! You are close enough to absolutely monitor. Like I said, this is so nowcast with that thing, but we'll know in a few hrs. where it will be. 

[Nomz]

Still rain in Georgetown. We're probably gonna be the last neighborhood in the sub to get snow lmao.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Norlun trough axis right through there based on latest hi-res, so makes sense. That was such a nowcast feature that you had to wait to pull any trigger. 

Got any tools I could use to see where it’s setting up? I’m right next to Dulles and am liking where the banding has been.