Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Well euro mucked up my plan. Not going to Delaware for 7-10". My second thought was to ride out to the Catoctins, hike up to 1800' and day camp until late afternoon then decide where to head for the main show tonight. Need help! Where would you go?

Euro has been low for DE coastline relative to all the other guidance for awhile?

[LeesburgWx]

6z models really all show the case for north and west of DC getting hit well with the IVT. Best case at this point 

[WVclimo]

Light rain.  37/34

[Solution Man]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

6z models really all show the case for north and west of DC getting hit well with the IVT. Best case at this point 

Seems very persistent with the IVT, surprises coming 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

We’ll find out soon who’s right about temps hrrr vs 3k….hoping it’s 3k

[GEOS5ftw]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is a day where correlation coefficient rare is our friend. Looks to me that is showing rain almost everywhere but the highest elevation scans (closest to IAD) are snow. So snow is melting as it falls, as we’d expect. But the highest DBZ returns  south of DC right now are maybe also mixing with snow at the ground.

The high CC we are seeing everywhere is actually snow above the melting layer (which is very shallow today - anxiously awaiting the 12Z IAD sounding to verify). The lower CC near the radar (where the beam is lowest) is the melting layer which is in the lowest 1500 ft if I'm interpreting Radarscope's beam altitude correctly. We should see that zone of low CC collapse to the radar site as the snow reaches the ground.

 

During the January storm, someone posted time series of quasi-vertical profiles from LWX and other radars. These are an awesome tool to see subtle vertical shifts in melting layer/ptype over time (you give up horizontal resolution for vertical resolution). I can't seem to find a site for these so maybe they were manually generated? Would love to monitor them in real time for this storm.

[MN Transplant]

Rain.  36.3

[aldie 22]

36.3 0.06 rain so far I suspect i should see some mixing in the next hour so

[dailylurker]

Headed to the Catoctins for the first leg of this chase. I'll be at Salamander Rock checking conditions above 1500'. After that? Delaware. 

[Roger Ramjet]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is a day where correlation coefficient rare is our friend. Looks to me that is showing rain almost everywhere but the highest elevation scans (closest to IAD) are snow. So snow is melting as it falls, as we’d expect. But the highest DBZ returns  south of DC right now are maybe also mixing with snow at the ground.

Still light rain here at 33.9. I'm at 725'. Latest radar scan shows some bright banding at my location in northwestern Loudoun. Thinking that a mix may just off the surface for me.

[CAPE]

The latest forecast here looks a bit overdone wrt snow accumulations, 13-20. Given the mostly low ratios for the duration of the storm and that models have shifted the more crippling snow to the the NE, the low end seems pretty reasonable. I would go with 8-12, maybe a bit more depending on banding. That's manageable and I should be able to get home tomorrow evening.

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said:

The high CC we are seeing everywhere is actually snow above the melting layer (which is very shallow today - anxiously awaiting the 12Z IAD sounding to verify). The lower CC near the radar (where the beam is lowest) is the melting layer which is in the lowest 1500 ft if I'm interpreting Radarscope's beam altitude correctly. We should see that zone of low CC collapse to the radar site as the snow reaches the ground.

 

During the January storm, someone posted time series of quasi-vertical profiles from LWX and other radars. These are an awesome tool to see subtle vertical shifts in melting layer/ptype over time (you give up horizontal resolution for vertical resolution). I can't seem to find a site for these so maybe they were manually generated? Would love to monitor them in real time for this storm.

Ah right, I got it backwards with the elevation scans. 

[mitchnick]

Just starting to get thick raindrops and the first wet, random snowflake or two. Visibility in the distance is dropping too.

[LeesburgWx]

35 here and light rain. In-laws live on the ridge on the border of Loudoun and WV. Elevation about 1,500-1,600 feet and they have snow and everything covered so far

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just starting to get thick raindrops and the first wet, random snowflake or two. Visibility in the distance is dropping too.

Yup not much going on here yet. Radar to SW looks nice, if it ever can get up here. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

44 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Anyone seeing any wet flakes with that batch south of DC? Chase update. As of this morning my target is Seaford Del. I'm hoping I don't have to leave the lowlands and miss a 10 incher, but I definitely don't want to miss out on experiencing a true blizzard when it's so close. 

No snow yet. I had 0.02” in the Cocorahs gauge this morning, and everything is still damp, but it’s currently just cloudy.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup not much going on here yet. Radar to SW looks nice, if it ever can get up here. 

You should be seeing the random flakes that have become not so random anymore. 

[jayyy]

Well, radar certainly looks much better 6 hours later. Let’s go

[Weather Will]

WB 11Z HRRR statewide and zoomed.  Note west of Bay it is just light snow by end of run at midnight.

[300 square feet]

An occasional sleet pellet mixed in with the rain here in Reston. 36/35. 

[GreyHat]

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 11Z HRRR statewide and zoomed.  Note west of Bay it is just light snow by end of run at midnight.

Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss 

[BlizzardNole]

17 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Headed to the Catoctins for the first leg of this chase. I'll be at Salamander Rock checking conditions above 1500'. After that? Delaware. 

I drove to the Catoctins once in a marginal event where Germantown only had a slushy coating and I saw 6" and cotton ball sized flakes there.  I only drove 33 miles.  Can't wait to hear your obs

Light rain, 37

[Roger Ramjet]

19 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said:

Still light rain here at 33.9. I'm at 725'. Latest radar scan shows some bright banding at my location in northwestern Loudoun. Thinking that a mix may just off the surface for me.

Guess I was right, big fatties starting to mix in!

[NorthArlington101]

Good morning. Tilted hard yesterday and almost decided to drive to a family house in Long Island. Problem is I think I could get stuck for a week. Snow weenies should all be given remote jobs.

Anyway, mostly just hoping and praying the Euro has the right idea. Might opt to take this one across the river and get an extra 350’ of elevation. Could deal with a 5” consolation and then hope the Euro is also that nobody is really exceeding 20”, lol

[CAPE]

Raining hard here now, That's a hell of a band on radar. Hope to see that when its snow lol.

[Imgoinhungry]

What time did the hrrr and nam start showing snow? When will we know which is likely to verify? Now, based on current temps vs what was forecast?


.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss 

Idk, I  am all snow now. 35 per close Wunderground station.

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss 

It is slowly caving to the 3K especially in NW zones.  Anxious to see if I turn to snow before noon west of 15 in Frederick county.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I drove to the Catoctins once in a marginal event where Germantown only had a slushy coating and I saw 6" and cotton ball sized flakes there.  I only drove 33 miles.  Can't wait to hear your obs

Light rain, 37

Same! I've seen some really interesting phenomena up there. I'll start posting reports when I get up to the top at around 10. I'm going to hike around up there and chill for a while, while I decided where to head for the main event.