WxUSAF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Well euro mucked up my plan. Not going to Delaware for 7-10". My second thought was to ride out to the Catoctins, hike up to 1800' and day camp until late afternoon then decide where to head for the main show tonight. Need help! Where would you go? Euro has been low for DE coastline relative to all the other guidance for awhile? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6z models really all show the case for north and west of DC getting hit well with the IVT. Best case at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Light rain. 37/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, LeesburgWx said: 6z models really all show the case for north and west of DC getting hit well with the IVT. Best case at this point Seems very persistent with the IVT, surprises coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 We’ll find out soon who’s right about temps hrrr vs 3k….hoping it’s 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is a day where correlation coefficient rare is our friend. Looks to me that is showing rain almost everywhere but the highest elevation scans (closest to IAD) are snow. So snow is melting as it falls, as we’d expect. But the highest DBZ returns south of DC right now are maybe also mixing with snow at the ground. The high CC we are seeing everywhere is actually snow above the melting layer (which is very shallow today - anxiously awaiting the 12Z IAD sounding to verify). The lower CC near the radar (where the beam is lowest) is the melting layer which is in the lowest 1500 ft if I'm interpreting Radarscope's beam altitude correctly. We should see that zone of low CC collapse to the radar site as the snow reaches the ground. During the January storm, someone posted time series of quasi-vertical profiles from LWX and other radars. These are an awesome tool to see subtle vertical shifts in melting layer/ptype over time (you give up horizontal resolution for vertical resolution). I can't seem to find a site for these so maybe they were manually generated? Would love to monitor them in real time for this storm. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Rain. 36.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 36.3 0.06 rain so far I suspect i should see some mixing in the next hour so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Headed to the Catoctins for the first leg of this chase. I'll be at Salamander Rock checking conditions above 1500'. After that? Delaware. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is a day where correlation coefficient rare is our friend. Looks to me that is showing rain almost everywhere but the highest elevation scans (closest to IAD) are snow. So snow is melting as it falls, as we’d expect. But the highest DBZ returns south of DC right now are maybe also mixing with snow at the ground. Still light rain here at 33.9. I'm at 725'. Latest radar scan shows some bright banding at my location in northwestern Loudoun. Thinking that a mix may just off the surface for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The latest forecast here looks a bit overdone wrt snow accumulations, 13-20. Given the mostly low ratios for the duration of the storm and that models have shifted the more crippling snow to the the NE, the low end seems pretty reasonable. I would go with 8-12, maybe a bit more depending on banding. That's manageable and I should be able to get home tomorrow evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 6 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: The high CC we are seeing everywhere is actually snow above the melting layer (which is very shallow today - anxiously awaiting the 12Z IAD sounding to verify). The lower CC near the radar (where the beam is lowest) is the melting layer which is in the lowest 1500 ft if I'm interpreting Radarscope's beam altitude correctly. We should see that zone of low CC collapse to the radar site as the snow reaches the ground. During the January storm, someone posted time series of quasi-vertical profiles from LWX and other radars. These are an awesome tool to see subtle vertical shifts in melting layer/ptype over time (you give up horizontal resolution for vertical resolution). I can't seem to find a site for these so maybe they were manually generated? Would love to monitor them in real time for this storm. Ah right, I got it backwards with the elevation scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just starting to get thick raindrops and the first wet, random snowflake or two. Visibility in the distance is dropping too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 35 here and light rain. In-laws live on the ridge on the border of Loudoun and WV. Elevation about 1,500-1,600 feet and they have snow and everything covered so far 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just starting to get thick raindrops and the first wet, random snowflake or two. Visibility in the distance is dropping too. Yup not much going on here yet. Radar to SW looks nice, if it ever can get up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnEndlessMaze Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 44 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Anyone seeing any wet flakes with that batch south of DC? Chase update. As of this morning my target is Seaford Del. I'm hoping I don't have to leave the lowlands and miss a 10 incher, but I definitely don't want to miss out on experiencing a true blizzard when it's so close. No snow yet. I had 0.02” in the Cocorahs gauge this morning, and everything is still damp, but it’s currently just cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Yup not much going on here yet. Radar to SW looks nice, if it ever can get up here. You should be seeing the random flakes that have become not so random anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Well, radar certainly looks much better 6 hours later. Let’s go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 WB 11Z HRRR statewide and zoomed. Note west of Bay it is just light snow by end of run at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 An occasional sleet pellet mixed in with the rain here in Reston. 36/35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 11Z HRRR statewide and zoomed. Note west of Bay it is just light snow by end of run at midnight. Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 17 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Headed to the Catoctins for the first leg of this chase. I'll be at Salamander Rock checking conditions above 1500'. After that? Delaware. I drove to the Catoctins once in a marginal event where Germantown only had a slushy coating and I saw 6" and cotton ball sized flakes there. I only drove 33 miles. Can't wait to hear your obs Light rain, 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Ramjet Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 19 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said: Still light rain here at 33.9. I'm at 725'. Latest radar scan shows some bright banding at my location in northwestern Loudoun. Thinking that a mix may just off the surface for me. Guess I was right, big fatties starting to mix in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Good morning. Tilted hard yesterday and almost decided to drive to a family house in Long Island. Problem is I think I could get stuck for a week. Snow weenies should all be given remote jobs. Anyway, mostly just hoping and praying the Euro has the right idea. Might opt to take this one across the river and get an extra 350’ of elevation. Could deal with a 5” consolation and then hope the Euro is also that nobody is really exceeding 20”, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Raining hard here now, That's a hell of a band on radar. Hope to see that when its snow lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 What time did the hrrr and nam start showing snow? When will we know which is likely to verify? Now, based on current temps vs what was forecast?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss Idk, I am all snow now. 35 per close Wunderground station. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Hrrr can’t even model 1hour our correctly. Toss It is slowly caving to the 3K especially in NW zones. Anxious to see if I turn to snow before noon west of 15 in Frederick county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: I drove to the Catoctins once in a marginal event where Germantown only had a slushy coating and I saw 6" and cotton ball sized flakes there. I only drove 33 miles. Can't wait to hear your obs Light rain, 37 Same! I've seen some really interesting phenomena up there. I'll start posting reports when I get up to the top at around 10. I'm going to hike around up there and chill for a while, while I decided where to head for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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