yoda Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Yeah pretty surprised they did not put up a watch regionwide I understand the watch for NE MD and the counties bordering Mason-Dixon... it was the Western Loudoun/NW Montgomery/NW Howard additions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, Nomz said: Baltimore officially under the gun. Considering this is a watch and not a warning I'm kind of dumbfounded that they didn't go with at least all of Central MD and DC area. A few more obedient ticks by our Canadian Shortwave friends and we're going to cash big on this. It's a watch, just do it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert? I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, Nomz said: Baltimore officially under the gun. Western Loudoun living has its perks! For real though, this map looks so odd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 I mean obviously LWX sees surface temps as being a huge issue hence the lack of watches in the DC area. Hard to disagree honestly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: I mean obviously LWX sees surface temps as being a huge issue hence the lack of watches in the DC area. Hard to disagree honestly. Agreed and they have time to hoist watches if things trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Current watch configuration makes sense ATTM. Lines up with the climo favored areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 12Z SV AI Weathernext: DC up to ~7” 10:1 from ~5” 10:1 prior 3 runs; probably ~~5” Kuchera up from ~~4” prior 3 runs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 8 minutes ago, IronTy said: Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert? I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar? more similar (but still not anywhere near a match) for synoptics and general output overall for me is 2/5/2010, adjusted for today's warmer climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, bncho said: more similar (but still not anywhere near a match) for synoptics and general output overall for me is 2/5/2010, adjusted for today's warmer climate. This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Only maybe notable changes on the NAM through 18 is the higher heights in the west, and the Canadian shortwave is coming more south. Otherwise, very similar, maybe the trough is a hair narrower or perhaps west. Can't draw any conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 The Nam is just digging the northern stream smoothly this run. Its not doing a wonky meander. What fun is that? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This will not be anything like 2/5/10 my man. Feb 1987 is a closer match. 2/5/10 was a whole other monster and a MUCH better 5H evolution, and it was cooler. Yep! I just remember holding at 32.5-33.0 with BIG dumping aggregate flakes! 11" or so for me in West Springfield VA, and even DCA did well. Less than 10-1 ratio certainly, so you'll want to look at Kuchera or cut the 10-1 by 20-30% to be safe. Hoping that the inverted trough banding would be mostly at night. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This was basically my forecast at WPC, minus 1-2" almost everywhere. Edit: To clarify, I am 1-2" HIGHER than Sterling atm, but it's still early and time for adjustments in either direction. We were practically neighbors during the last storm, you can do better back here. I'm guessing they just don't think enough moisture gets back this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 19 minutes ago, IronTy said: Are we thinking this storm will be similar to the 1/2022 storm we had where it was pouring rain one minute and then dumping snow paste the next where we ended up with a foot of snow and a ton of downed trees in Calvert? I understand the synoptics aren't the same here but the results could be similar? I've been thinking of that one quite a bit also. Difference, from observational standpoint, is it was preceded by a warm (+6.7) month of December. No cold to the ground at all. This week has been warm, but in our area, ground is still quite cold. Waters still frozen or freshly thawed, (i.e. cold). That 2022 storm didn't have any of that advantage, but still clobbered us here in AACo. Power out, roads closed, trees down. I think that it won't take much cold air to turn this in to an impactful storm. Just a bit colder than modeled, and we're back in winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: We were practically neighbors during the last storm, you can do better back here. I'm guessing they just don't think enough moisture gets back this way The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM looks pretty GFS-like at hour 27, but so far it's early 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM, At 30, heights ahead of the wave are obviously higher, and steeper. It looks like it has more room to amplify. It might be a little messier with the pieces though. Hopefully it can turn the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: The norlun trough is going to be a huge wildcard in this one around here. That will surprise where ever it sets up. Could very well be back towards your area or further east. Regardless, it'll be a crazy storm to watch evolve. And I'm guessing where that sets up we won't know until it's happening? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: And I'm guessing where that sets up we won't know until it's happening? Lol inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Also, the base of the trough is more north, not as deep, but hasn't consolidated fully yet. So we'll see what happens in a few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, bncho said: inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes Like predicting exactly where a summer thunderstorm is going to hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Just now, bncho said: inv trofs are going to be nowcasting events, yes Not to mention more rare around here, if I'm not mistaken. But I remember NJ having one last year and it kinda coming out of nowhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 hmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 5 minutes ago, bncho said: NAM looks pretty GFS-like at hour 27, but so far it's early Breaking out more precip in Ohio this run and more ridging ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 NAM looks more neg tilted thru hr 42 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, baltosquid said: hmmmmmmm Hmmm 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Just now, baltosquid said: hmmmmmmm Yeah that looks more positivity tilted than the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts