Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Maestrobjwa]

From calendar silliness side...when was the last time BWI exceeded 5" this late in February? I still only have 3/4ths of an eyebrow raised...we carry this another 36 hours the it'll be 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Honestly... the changes in the Ohio Valley are a little eyebrow raising. Since yesterday's 12z, the GFS had been going with a sort of three piece look (which other models had believed in) where the main wave is actually two pieces close together trying to phase, followed by a separate one further NW. This run mostly consolidates the main wave into one, and the trailer is still up NW. As long as that trailer gets close enough to bring the storm up, rather than just hinder the tilt, I don't see a reversal of the ticks NE as too crazy...

I see it, I agree. Makes sense and could actually get better. I think thats why some things looked worse but others looked better and had the boom potential...still ended up a good run. 

[schinz]

I'll be in Brigantine, NJ. for this one.  It should be quite the show!!!

[WVsnowlover]

Just minor differences between the clown map and snow depth maps on the 12z gfs...

[WxUSAF]

So far there’s seems to be a bit of meeting in the middle with the 12z suite. But other guidance is taking more steps toward the Op GFS than the other way around. My guess still is the metro area will, in the end, be too far west for the coastal CCB snows. But this might be our La Niña Rehobeth blizzard…

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I see it, I agree. Makes sense and could actually get better. I think thats why some things looked worse but others looked better and had the boom potential...still ended up a good run. 

Yes, NE shifts indicate that h5 is FINE. I'd be much more worried about a SE shift.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 

Thats all I have for 12z AIGFS 

(ETA - sorry wrong image, corrected qpf image posted)

Looking like 6z Gefs

[baltosquid]

No surprise with the CMC as it's basically the RGEM. It is trying so hard to bring in the low but it's just got too much pulling it out. Give me another shift like that at 18z on the RGEM and we'll see.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Yes, NE shifts indicate that h5 is FINE. I'd be much more worried about a SE shift.

I agree, NE is more about less of a capture and slightly progressive move but still a solid low pressure track. CMC was improved at 12z vs 0z (not surprising given the RGEM). Of course its all on to see what the damn euro does. 

[Eskimo Joe]

You can almost feel everyone holding their breath for the Euro.

[Scuddz]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From calendar silliness side...when was the last time BWI exceeded 5" this late in February? I still only have 3/4ths of an eyebrow raised...we carry this another 36 hours the it'll be 

Probably March 2015

[stormtracker]

United sent a notice about inclement weather and flight cancellations. He then asked are we gonna be able to get home.  ( we leave late Monday) and we’d prob make it back but the answer imma bout to give because he doesn’t know better. 
 

 

 

 

 

[AlexD1990]

4 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Nice movie reference, but as a proud Delmarvan....

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

So far there’s seems to be a bit of meeting in the middle with the 12z suite. But other guidance is taking more steps toward the Op GFS than the other way around. My guess still is the metro area will, in the end, be too far west for the coastal CCB snows. But this might be our La Niña Rehobeth blizzard…

RehobOth, not RehobEth

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

Nice movie reference, but as a proud Delmarvan....

RehobOth, not RehobEth

Gold jacket, green jacket...

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

United sent a notice about inclement weather and flight cancellations. He then asked are we gonna be able to get home.  ( we leave late Monday) and we’d prob make it back but the answer imma bout to give because he doesn’t know better. 
 

 

 

 

 

Your ticket for snow just was issued. You know what to do

[nw baltimore wx]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not saying its the same... but didn't we have an early March storm some years ago that was kinda like this at least temperature-wise?  Where it was very iffy and we just happened to be lucky and the qpf was all snow?  It was a heavy wet snow

 

9 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Might be more like a 6.5/7/8 to 1 ratio when all is said and done, since some of that may be rain or white rain at the onset, and the other heavy aggregate flakes at 32.3-33.0F. 

And if I'm being honest, I wish the bulk of the event were at night and not during the day. Who remembers the St Patrick's Day snow in 2014? We got like 8.5" in Crofton that night (going into the 17th).  At that event fallen during the day, we probably would have gotten half that amount. 

That’s the storm I think @yoda was referring to.

[GreyHat]

8 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Might be more like a 6.5/7/8 to 1 ratio when all is said and done, since some of that may be rain or white rain at the onset, and the other heavy aggregate flakes at 32.3-33.0F. 

And if I'm being honest, I wish the bulk of the event were at night and not during the day. Who remembers the St Patrick's Day snow in 2014? We got like 8.5" in Crofton that night (going into the 17th).  At that event fallen during the day, we probably would have gotten half that amount. 

Thank you for the honest perspective. Maybe one day they can have low ratios besides 10:1 for storms like this.

[baltosquid]

12z GEFS at 60 ticks west. Edit: Though it may be a tick drier, we'll see. Not anything major.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

Probably March 2015

Oh yes I know we had them then...just talking about late February 

[LP08]

Positive changes early on the Ukie

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Your ticket for snow just was issued. You know what to do

Here's the only chance I have:  To come back a day earlier...but therein lies the rub...Sunday we probably have a better chance of NOT making it back.....Gotta get the timing of this thing down.   There's hope...I give it 30%

[baltosquid]

Looks like the peak probs of >1" QPF have dropped but they are moving more inland. Probably less clown 3 footers lol. Edit: switched to a later hr.

[AlexD1990]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Gold jacket, green jacket...

Sorry, but thats a huge pet peeve for local peeps. the only one worse is Lewis/Lewes

[caviman2201]

3 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Thank you for the honest perspective. Maybe one day they can have low ratios besides 10:1 for storms like this.

I mean - Kuchera is lower than 10:1 on Pivotal. BWI's QPF is like 1.7", 10:1 is 17" and Kuchera is 13" so 7.6:1 avg

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Thank you for the honest perspective. Maybe one day they can have low ratios besides 10:1 for storms like this.

They do... It is the Kuchera ratio

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK throws precip further west but is still warm, I like the trend though. 

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

United sent a notice about inclement weather and flight cancellations. He then asked are we gonna be able to get home.  ( we leave late Monday) and we’d prob make it back but the answer imma bout to give because he doesn’t know better. 
 

 

 

 

 

Earlier is better, just saying 

[baltosquid]

Temps on the UKMET are just so bad lol. Anyway the H5 is better and coastal comes further west. Not GFS at this point. But a step.

[TowsonWeather]

9 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Thank you for the honest perspective. Maybe one day they can have low ratios besides 10:1 for storms like this.

LOL...

Wut?

[wasnow215]

14 minutes ago, schinz said:

I'll be in Brigantine, NJ. for this one.  It should be quite the show!!!

I grew up near there -it'll flood for sure. Smh