Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Climate175]

Just now, Interstate said:

I would not be celebrating yet. I will wait to see if the 0z GFS holds. I am still 100% on board. I never wavered. 

You are in it to win it haha. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We don't want to depend on that feature. There will be a narrow area of heavier precip, and more have nots than haves. We want.. fucking need, something close to what the GFS is advertising.

Agree, I’m all in.  Gimme me a tucked monster, at this point of the year gimme something big or just move it along to spring. 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I would not be celebrating yet. I will wait to see if the 0z GFS holds. I am still 100% on board. I never wavered. 

Yep.  Sage advice.  We have failed much closer to game time in epic fashion.  But.  It’s getting real close so

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AIFS improved by a lot

Makes sense since the physics based Euro model just semi-caved to the GFS.

[stormtracker]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

I'm having a 90 minute in your honor

[Keith1174]

53 minutes ago, bncho said:

fml, got to love the snow hole in NE MD there

[somecallmetim]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm having a 90 minute in your honor

If this thing happens, I’ve got a 120 that will be coming out.

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm having a 90 minute in your honor

A 120 Min would be more appropriate as we stare down the barrel of a fantasy blizzard. 

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm having a 90 minute in your honor

Its a great Imperial IPA. Enjoy!

I'll be picking up a few of the Limited Release 120s tomorrow. $8.90 a bottle! So fucking good.

[stormtracker]

Just now, somecallmetim said:

If this thing happens, I’ve got a 120 that will be coming out.

This man got money

[stormtracker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Its a great Imperial IPA. Enjoy!

I'll be picking up a few of the Limited Release 120s tomorrow. $8.90 a bottle! So fucking good.

Still comes out cheaper than what I'd have to pay here for a 4 pack.

[bncho]

[snowfan]

Ok if this works I'll share some of the recent haul. 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Here is their base snowfall map btw

Any met want to weigh in on what the hell is going on with the Shenandoah's? I know that their elevation and upslope will help them but is this just the NWS graphic overdoing it or human made? 

[TowsonWeather]

38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Peace. Enjoy all the snow maps and “omg” posts 

The capital of PSUsiana might not be Norluns, but that’s where most of the fun happens. 
 

 

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm having a 90 minute in your honor

I thought you can’t last more than 3 minutes?. 

[Quasievil]

5 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Ok if this works I'll share some of the recent haul. 

 

I support this message.

[CAPE]

Latest Blend 

[Grothar of Herndon]

2 hours ago, LeesburgWx said:

The only thing holding me back is the dual low signature now.

Always sumthang!

[Random Chaos]

Just remember that if the ECMWF caves to the GFS, the Euro is still king and the GFS still sucks.

[VA Mad Man]

Old school radio show tonight at 0Z? Come on, Randy? Bring in some red taggers and DT for comic relief!

[snowfan]

[Nomz]

26 minutes ago, bncho said:

Just got back and saw the 18z suite... I'm willing to give up all my clean water to run the GFS data center for a year if it pulls this off. Also guess I'm staying up till 12:45 tonight

[stormtracker]

Yall have a back up pbp person ready.  Going to the Mexican restaurant around the corner.  They have buy 1 get 1 free pitchers of margaritas.  I SHOULD be ok, but I'm just sayin...

[Cobalt]

Based on the 12z GFS so grain of salt but CIPS analogs are compelling. A few biggies mixed in with some northeast hits. Also lol at #1 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Jake Wx said:

ALL HAIL KING GFS 

Of course the Euro gonna troll

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Based on the 12z GFS so grain of salt but CIPS analogs are compelling. A few biggies mixed in with some northeast hits. Also lol at #1 

 

Lol March 2013. I remember staying home from work that day (I guess we were told to not come in?) and watching it rain/snizzle. Almost as bad as boxing day, but in March, so it hurt less. We were supposed to get like a foot in DC

[MillvilleWx]

Y’all better not sleep on the norlun trough idea. That thing could be pretty epic if that ends up being the main player for snowfall. Even if the coastal misses, a solid phase and a moisture transport between 925-500mb can still be pretty prolific. Forecasted some 12-18” norluns across the Northeast in my time. Not saying 12-18” is in the realm of possibility here, but they can pack quite a punch for a period when they setup. 
 

Liked the tends a lot today for the storm prospects, so I want to see this maintain or improve beginning tonight. That NS interaction across the Continental divide into the plains will be really important. More interaction will lead to better influences downstream. That was something noted on cluster analysis that more interaction and phasing early allows for heights downstream over Atlantic Canada to pump meaning greater amplitude of the trough upstream. A positive feedback mechanism. This is also coincident to the more coupled 25H jet composition which is what you want for an intensifying SLP along the Atlantic seaboard. 
 

I remain on the winter desk tomorrow through the weekend, so I’m still trying to reel this one home for us. My time here depends on it according to Randy 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Lol March 2013. I remember staying home from work that day (I guess we were told to not come in?) and watching it rain/snizzle. Almost as bad as boxing day, but in March, so it hurt less. We were supposed to get like a foot in DC

I wish I was out here when that event happened. Was the sloppiest 3 inches of snow back home outside of DC. Was my first big track and I stepped outside in it and was like noooope. My dad got me SimCity that day though, that was a good highlight. 

[IronTy]

Is the "IVT" this storm's version of the "sampled flight data" from last storm?  I don't recall reading about IVTs in other storms in several years?