bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, DDweatherman said: Agreed, if that lobe catches a bit better and the backside amplifies a bit better, I feel like it could cause the neg tilt look the gfs has been advertising. SS was actually a hair worse... if 0z brings that back....... we might have a chance. I'm starting to believe in this one. Shoutout to @Interstate for always believing, @stormtracker for the excellent PBP as always, @Maestrobjwa for the thread, @IUsedToHateCold for the nat 20 roll, and @SnowenOutThere for the great synoptic analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Agreed, if that lobe catches a bit better and the backside amplifies a bit better, I feel like it could cause the neg tilt look the gfs has been advertising. Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 NCEP HQ right now 4 21 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Jake Wx said: ALL HAIL KING GFS I ain't crowning it yet, but damn it picked a good time to potentially be right. Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps the die roll was right.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 EPS looks good! Way phasier at hr 36! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, stormtracker said: NCEP HQ right now Yes. To be a fly on the wall at LWX and WPC right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: My flight to Vegas leaves at 7:00 am on Monday. Yay? Go Sunday morning instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Hot damn 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps. I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Hot damn Could you imagine if the 00z suite comes in even a bit better? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, mappy said: But that’s the ivt you just mocked. and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard. The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 12 minutes ago, Paleocene said: but what about the IVT guys The IVT is responsible for 75% of that snow on the euro. It’s still our best chance of significant snow. If the coastal is closer it can help enhance that and it might seem like it’s part of the coastal but unless the gfs actually scores a coup nothing else shows our area (outside maybe the Delmarva) getting into the developing CCB snowfall from the miller b coastal. Even the much improved 18z euro all our snow is from the moisture training along the IVT. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, mappy said: I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 @psuhoffmancheck euro my freind, the ivt is not going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, psuhoffman said: The IVT is responsible for 75% of that snow on the euro. It’s still our best chance of significant snow. If the coastal is closer it can help enhance that and it might seem like it’s part of the coastal but unless the gfs actually scores a coup nothing else shows our area (outside maybe the Delmarva) getting into the developing CCB snowfall from the miller b coastal. Even the much improved 18z euro all our snow is from the moisture training along the IVT. You’re right, I’ll take the low as far west and as “stally” as we can to let that IVT sit over us and dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 EPS phasing on the mean. wtf 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, mappy said: I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. I literally identified the differences aloft less than an hour ago, and the Euro has made a BIG step towards the GFS. I might go back to my technical thread now lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Well this might be an interesting concert weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 18z Euro 500mb evolution is very similar to the ICON and CMC. There are differences in the precip amounts surface low tracks and intensities, but 500mb looks pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: Best under 100 hour suite in how long ? Definitely best in our entire lives, maybe even this whole season as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 January 2000 levels of caving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: It ain't over or decided yet of course (but I know you know that!)...however, I have to feel a bit more confident in a solid warning-level snowfall at this point. Obviously the crazy GFS amounts are just that...crazy...but I like seeing the Euro edge in that direction (as well as the Euro/GFS AI versions). Now, can we get the Hessian and Canuck models to concur, LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, Paleocene said: and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard. The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream Everyone here secretly, or openly, roots for their backyard to get the most. I want Randy and h2o and my area to always get the most. lol give me a mega band and a good book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It's still not the GFS but everybody who said that the GFS was impossible I guess has to say it's not impossible now. Own it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just give me 6” from the IVT and satisfied as could be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard. The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream There is only one model showing the coastal bombing and tucking and that (gfs) gives me 1.5 qpf. I’ll be just fine if that happens! But unless you’re in ocean city nothing else is even close with the CCB associated precip. Do I want the gfs to be right YES. But since that’s very unlikely, even now, I’m rooting for what is the better way more probable path to snow. The better trend on the other 18z guidance was enough to enhance the IVT with a close coastal but make no mistake without the IVT we are still always from all other guidance showing a hit from the actual miller b. We’d need another 2 shifts like the one we just for. Possible but rare I’ve seen the kind of amplification adjustment we need in the dozens of times we’ve been in this exact spot But that IVT can train moisture in off the developing coastal I’ve seen that happen way more often. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, Jake Wx said: @psuhoffmancheck euro my freind, the ivt is not going east It reversed its trend on that this run and I’m very glad it did 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 The weekend rule is a force of nature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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