Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[bncho]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Agreed, if that lobe catches a bit better and the backside amplifies a bit better, I feel like it could cause the neg tilt look the gfs has been advertising.

SS was actually a hair worse... if 0z brings that back.......

we might have a chance. I'm starting to believe in this one. 

Shoutout to @Interstate for always believing, @stormtracker for the excellent PBP as always, @Maestrobjwa for the thread, @IUsedToHateCold for the nat 20 roll, and @SnowenOutThere for the great synoptic analysis! 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Agreed, if that lobe catches a bit better and the backside amplifies a bit better, I feel like it could cause the neg tilt look the gfs has been advertising.

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

[stormtracker]

NCEP HQ right now

[IUsedToHateCold]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

ALL HAIL KING GFS 

I ain't crowning it yet, but damn it picked a good time to potentially be right. 

Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps the die roll was right....

[bncho]

EPS looks good! Way phasier at hr 36!

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

NCEP HQ right now

Yes. To be a fly on the wall at LWX and WPC right now.

[VA Mad Man]

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

My flight to Vegas leaves at 7:00 am on Monday. Yay?

Go Sunday morning instead

[WxUSAF]

Hot damn 

[bncho]

 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Hot damn 

Could you imagine if the 00z suite comes in even a bit better?

[Paleocene]

Just now, mappy said:

But that’s the ivt you just mocked. 

and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard.  The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

but what about the IVT guys

The IVT is responsible for 75% of that snow on the euro. It’s still our best chance of significant snow. If the coastal is closer it can help enhance that and it might seem like it’s part of the coastal but unless the gfs actually scores a coup nothing else shows our area (outside maybe the Delmarva) getting into the developing CCB snowfall from the miller b coastal. Even the much improved 18z euro all our snow is from the moisture training along the IVT. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. 

 

[Jake Wx]

@psuhoffmancheck euro my freind, the ivt is not going east 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The IVT is responsible for 75% of that snow on the euro. It’s still our best chance of significant snow. If the coastal is closer it can help enhance that and it might seem like it’s part of the coastal but unless the gfs actually scores a coup nothing else shows our area (outside maybe the Delmarva) getting into the developing CCB snowfall from the miller b coastal. Even the much improved 18z euro all our snow is from the moisture training along the IVT. 

You’re right, I’ll take the low as far west and as “stally” as we can to let that IVT sit over us and dump. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS phasing on the mean. wtf

[Leaking Gut]

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I appreciated your other thread, just keep posting the good stuff. Please. 

I literally identified the differences aloft less than an hour ago, and the Euro has made a BIG step towards the GFS. I might go back to my technical thread now lol.

[RickinBaltimore]

Well this might be an interesting concert weekend...

[Amped]

18z Euro 500mb evolution is very similar to the ICON and CMC. There are differences in the precip amounts surface low tracks and intensities, but 500mb looks pretty close.

[IronTy]

11 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

Best under 100 hour suite in how long ?

Definitely best in our entire lives, maybe even this whole season as well.  

[bncho]

January 2000 levels of caving 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 

It ain't over or decided yet of course (but I know you know that!)...however, I have to feel a bit more confident in a solid warning-level snowfall at this point.  Obviously the crazy GFS amounts are just that...crazy...but I like seeing the Euro edge in that direction (as well as the Euro/GFS AI versions).  Now, can we get the Hessian and Canuck models to concur, LOL!!! 

[mappy]

Just now, Paleocene said:

and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard.  The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream

Everyone here secretly, or openly, roots for their backyard to get the most. I want Randy and h2o and my area to always get the most. lol give me a mega band and a good book.

[wasnow215]

It's still not the GFS but everybody who said that the GFS was impossible I guess has to say it's not impossible now. Own it! Lol

[DDweatherman]

Just give me 6” from the IVT and satisfied as could be. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

and @clskinsfan Indeed. Multiple paths to win here. I was mostly being critical/joking about PSU because I think he knows that he's not gonna get the jack on any coastal (if one happens). He wants the IVT jack in his backyard.  The man is always rooting for his jackpot. The Euro also looks *this close* to getting captured... one can dream

There is only one model showing the coastal bombing and tucking and that (gfs) gives me 1.5 qpf. I’ll be just fine if that happens!  But unless you’re in ocean city nothing else is even close with the CCB associated precip. Do I want the gfs to be right YES. But since that’s very unlikely, even now, I’m rooting for what is the better way more probable path to snow.  
 

The better trend on the other 18z guidance was enough to enhance the IVT with a close coastal but make no mistake without the IVT we are still always from all other guidance showing a hit from the actual miller b. We’d need another 2 shifts like the one we just for. Possible but rare I’ve seen the kind of amplification adjustment we need in the dozens of times we’ve been in this exact spot But that IVT can train moisture in off the developing coastal I’ve seen that happen way more often. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

@psuhoffmancheck euro my freind, the ivt is not going east 

It reversed its trend on that this run and I’m very glad it did 

[87storms]

The weekend rule is a force of nature.