Zeus Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Do you guys wanna get soft pretzels after this? We can get the cream cheese dip, I like the cream cheese dip. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Euro out to 9. No changes. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 EURO AI says no. 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, Zeus said: Do you guys wanna get soft pretzels after this? We can get the cream cheese dip, I like the cream cheese dip. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 46 minutes ago, rjvanals said: The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges Imagine if they had used the GFS to schedule the invasion of Normandy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO AI says no. Is it worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation? If a low gets too intense and vertically stacks the moisture transport is cut off to its west and everything is focused on the intense but compact qpf field. We saw it somewhat with that coastal bomb in 2018 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: Is it worse? Looks like it to me...low further off-shore, precip weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, bncho said: Is it worse? Yeah shifted east, looks more just like a little norlun interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: Is it worse? SV maps look like 1-3” all IVT. Coastal is offshore Boston. So yea 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, bncho said: Is it worse? Yes, a bit. Looks like the wave interaction was worse and it was more positively tilted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Yes, a bit. Looks like the wave interaction was worse and it was more positively tilted. Its not even in the same ballpark as the GFS at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, LP08 said: Its not even in the same ballpark as the GFS at H5. Worse than 06z Euro AI I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 GFS has to obviously be assumed to be the outlier and ignored. Will cave at some point and never come back. Which is awful considering we are at like 80hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 No huge changes so far. May be noise level higher out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 It is all about what the SW does early in the Western Canada... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, baltosquid said: Worse than 06z Euro AI I mean Defintely. Did not word my response the best. At 72 GFS trof is negative, ALL OTHER guidance is positive and progressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z: What if it don't pull the rug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 What I can say with confidence is, it isn't sharp as the GFS and probably won't have the same outcome 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Euro ai h5 track is actually pretty good though tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Definitely not GFS like. Gets some light stuff in the vicinity around hour 69 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 WB 12Z AI from the trough 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z: Excellent song choice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Its slightly closer to the coast than 6z, but it's unremarkable on the way out. So there's that. 18z GFS should be fun! Or horrible. But this run of the Euro ain't it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Its slightly closer to the coast than 6z, but it's unremarkable on the way out. So there's that. 18z GFS should be fun! Or horrible. But this run of the Euro ain't it The tug of war continues lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 This could be the worse GFS fail I have ever witnessed. 3 days out and showing a blizzard and on Sunday we'll be dealing with snizzle. smh 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Excellent song choice I love that song too. The dice got me in. Euro cave at HH? (sure, it's *probably* not happening, but I'm going to suspend my disbelief) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: The tug of war continues lol. yeah Glass Joe vs King Hippo 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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