Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[Zeus]

Do you guys wanna get soft pretzels after this? We can get the cream cheese dip, I like the cream cheese dip.

[stormtracker]

Euro out to 9.  No changes.

[NorthArlington101]

EURO AI says no.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Do you guys wanna get soft pretzels after this? We can get the cream cheese dip, I like the cream cheese dip.

 

[IronTy]

46 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The GFS needs massive investments since it’s a national security problem being this inaccurate at such short ranges 

Imagine if they had used the GFS to schedule the invasion of Normandy

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO AI says no.

Is it worse?

[psuhoffman]

34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What is the mechanism behind storms which are able to throw moisture hundreds of miles back west even when weaker and then storms like this that can barely reach a hundred miles with their precipitation?

If a low gets too intense and vertically stacks the moisture transport is cut off to its west and everything is focused on the intense but compact qpf field. We saw it somewhat with that coastal bomb in 2018

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Is it worse?

Looks like it to me...low further off-shore, precip weaker.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, bncho said:

Is it worse?

Yeah shifted east, looks more just like a little norlun interaction.  

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Is it worse?

SV maps look like 1-3” all IVT. Coastal is offshore Boston. So yea

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Is it worse?

Yes, a bit. Looks like the wave interaction was worse and it was more positively tilted.

[LP08]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Yes, a bit. Looks like the wave interaction was worse and it was more positively tilted.

Its not even in the same ballpark as the GFS at H5.  

[baltosquid]

Just now, LP08 said:

Its not even in the same ballpark as the GFS at H5.  

Worse than 06z Euro AI I mean

[Duca892]

GFS has to obviously be assumed to be the outlier and ignored. Will cave at some point and never come back. Which is awful considering we are at like 80hrs

[stormtracker]

No huge changes so far.  May be noise level higher out front

[RitualOfTheTrout]

NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z:

 

[Interstate]

It is all about what the SW does early in the Western Canada...

[LP08]

Just now, baltosquid said:

Worse than 06z Euro AI I mean

Defintely.  Did not word my response the best.  At 72 GFS trof is negative, ALL OTHER guidance is positive and progressive. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said:

NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z:

 

What if it don't pull the rug 

[stormtracker]

What I can say with confidence is, it isn't sharp as the GFS and probably won't have the same outcome

[87storms]

Euro ai h5 track is actually pretty good though tbh

[stormtracker]

Definitely not GFS like.  Gets some light stuff in the vicinity around hour 69

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI from the trough 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z:

 

Excellent song choice 

[stormtracker]

Its slightly closer to the coast than 6z, but it's unremarkable on the way out.  So there's that.  18z GFS should be fun!  Or horrible. But this run of the Euro ain't it

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Its slightly closer to the coast than 6z, but it's unremarkable on the way out.  So there's that.  18z GFS should be fun!  Or horrible. But this run of the Euro ain't it

The tug of war continues lol. 

[stormtracker]

This could be the worse GFS fail I have ever witnessed.  3 days out and showing a blizzard and on Sunday we'll be dealing with snizzle. smh

[IUsedToHateCold]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Excellent song choice 

I love that song too. 

The dice got me in. Euro cave at HH?

(sure, it's *probably* not happening, but I'm going to suspend my disbelief)

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Climate175 said:

The tug of war continues lol. 

yeah Glass Joe vs King Hippo

[WxUSAF]

Baseline forecast at this point probably is like 1-4” for the metro areas. I think it’s good news that most of the IVT precip falls after dark Sunday evening into early Monday, which obviously helps with accumulation. Precise location of the jackpot might be tougher to nail down until like Saturday.