Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@mappy lol. Yes, that's over 4" in the southern portion of the bay. Happens all the time in February.

That includes the rain this week. Look at the top.

[SnowGolfBro]

Not that it matters, but if we get the rates as advertised on the GFS, it will be colder than projected at the surface and it will stick

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

NBM. @CAPE is the expert at that. 

It wont have this run assimilated yet. And it seems to like the GFS.

[rjvanals]

The GFS is 0-3 in predicting a major snowstorm within 96 hrs this year. Maybe we’ll avoid a sweep? 

[LeesburgWx]

Wasn't expecting to open this thread to see so much porn. Wow

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@mappy lol. Yes, that's over 4" in the southern portion of the bay. Happens all the time in February.

That’s total qpf which includes tomorrows rain 

[wxmeddler]

That verbatim (which I don't believe for a second) would be an all-time eastern shore crippler.

[wxmeddler]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

That’s total qpf which includes tomorrows rain 

Here is the 10:1

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That includes the rain this week. Look at the top.

Ah you're right,  sorry. I've been so PUMPED looking at our imaginary storm I forgot it may rain this week. Will got the right map.  Reposting for clarity. Still absurd numbers

[mitchnick]

18z Canadian GEM at max range of 84hrs on the run.

[Scraff]

We should probably be in storm mode so we can suck the fun out of this thread. 

[CAPE]

If I managed to get a half a foot I would be delighted, and satisfied with winter. That would put me right about climo avg. I wouldn't kick more out of bed tho lol.

[mappy]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Ah you're right,  sorry. I've been so PUMPED looking at our imaginary storm I forgot it may rain this week. Will got the right map

Pivotal only does total that close up. Go forward in time to the gap between precip events, then subtract what qpf we already got from the total after the weekend event 

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nope same when the legit snow is falling after 7pm 

I'll be damned

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Canadian GEM at max range of 84hrs on the run.

Corresponding precip map looks encouraging. 

[hstorm]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty, but when is the last time SBY got 30" from one event? I think we both know the answer to that lol.

The answer to that question will soon be "February 2026."

[mitchnick]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

does it have precip?

See above

[WeatherGeek2025]

[TSSN+]

Model war continues. Gefs juiced up 

 

[stormtracker]

I'm pre-emptively hating the 18z Euro.  Fuck ass model.

[Interstate]

16 minutes ago, mappy said:

Pivotal only does total that close up. Go forward in time to the gap between precip events, then subtract what qpf we already got from the total after the weekend event 

That is just for Sunday-Monday

[WEATHER53]

Last night it was game over  and late this afternoon it’s  over  a foot.  This waffling CAB will continue and in this day and age we really don’t have an 80% or better likelihood until about 6 hours before onset. I too do enjoy looking at the massive numbers but it’s not a forecast and is an example of 30-40 outcomes each of which have a 3% chance of occurring. I think increased Ai input with analog basing will improve this random, patchy example giving .  We pretty much all know what Can happen, how about what is Most  Likely To Hsppen?

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm pre-emptively hating the 18z Euro.  

Ah but wouldn't you rather a model tell you the truth?  I mean honestly if it's right better to know now than later!

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm pre-emptively hating the 18z Euro.  Fuck ass model.

per twitter

18z GFS got a bit of recon data; 18z ECMWF will get more than 18z GFS did due to a later data cutoff time. The rest will be put for 00z!

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm pre-emptively hating the 18z Euro.  Fuck ass model.

Watch it show a region wide score just to spite you for that comment.

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm pre-emptively hating the 18z Euro.  Fuck ass model.

Now it’s going to spit out 6”. 

[wxmeddler]

For the Euro watchers, I will say that the 12z Op is now definitely an outlier in the cohesiveness and timing of the s/w rounding the OHV. The foreign global and AI are much more set on a more westward solution. To the extent of the 18z GFS? lol no, but I'd say at this point we have something decent to work with here for measurable snow at least for eastern portions of the board.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

The GFS is 0-3 in predicting a major snowstorm within 96 hrs this year. Maybe we’ll avoid a sweep? 

[stormy]

33 minutes ago, T. August said:

@stormy

My 7 model blend has increased from 2 inches at 7 am to 4 inches at 5:30 for Augusta County.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

My 7 model blend has increased from 2 inches at 7 am to 4 inches at 5:30 for Augusta County.

who cares about your blend