WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Feb 2024 That was great here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Glad I can go back to hating the Tzachuk brothers now. USA! 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: i know you meant convection there robbing some moisture maybe? Oops haha. Maybe that as well. I don’t hate the mid levels though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 GFS hiccup - universe couldn't let USA win too much at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Euro will come in the most juiced now 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 If the mesos stay steady it’s game on still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MuddyWx said: GFS hiccup - universe couldn't let USA win too much at once Yep The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Euro will come in the most juiced now We pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, dendrite said: Euro will come in the most juiced now Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Euro will come in the most juiced now Wouldn't be surprised now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The goalie should be the MVP Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, radarman said: Yep The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony Need to distract ourselves from the pain of knowing we have wasted 5 days glued to the tidbits website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Agree. Wonder if this deepening H5 low and CK vexrion playing havoc. I'm telling you 18z come back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro will come in the most juiced now Or scoot due east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Canadian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, radarman said: Yep The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony And the RGEM suddenly looks like a genius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Serious question though and not weenie bias.. I’m not sure we have ever weighed global guidance too heavily this close in, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The gfs depiction is very similar to what it was when it was being stubborn and the others were out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 42 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Yo Boone, been awhile! Maybe you should move up here one of these days to cash in on the goods. XD Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk You guys don’t have sweet tea or Bojangles up there. It’s a non starter lol. Enjoy my friend! That low is starting to crank off of Hatteras - north west flow already ensuing a few miles to my west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I've been looking at the evaluation webpage again. This time, for precipitation (at fcst 24hr for 12z cycles) thresholds. Anywho, for frequency bias, an ideal prediction is 1.0. Negative values indicates underprediction (doesn't predict the occurrence as much as it should), and + values indicate overprediction (predicts the occurrence too often). Note: The NAM 3km consistency overpredicts for all thresholds and is outperformed by the other mesos. For equitable threat score (removes outliers), an ideal prediction is 1.0 (0.0 indicating no skill). Based on this metric, HRRR performs best for all thresholds over the past 90 days: Seeing some of the globals trend unfavorably will only bother me if the mesos follow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, Kitz Craver said: Serious question though and not weenie bias.. I’m not sure we have ever weighed global guidance too heavily this close in, no? Why would we not weigh the globals now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm telling you 18z come back.. 18Z's are usually overamped. Been this way for a long time now. I always adjust the forecast because of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I'm riding the NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I haven't see this talked about much but what I think is really going to be a killer in this is going to be areas of major subsidence. I've always been fearful we see a banded precipitation field given how intense the low becomes, but none of the simulated radar reflectivity's have shown this. However, I think it's kind of evident in looking at the fronto banding signatures. Ultimately what will happen is there will be spots which make out beautifully and score in the upper end of ranges and there will be spots which struggle to even get to the lower end. No way to really paint that on a map either 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen??? I’m more concerned about Ineed20” and his mental well being if this slides east, 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Why would we not weigh the globals now? obviously because they show us the outcome we don't want ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Wow was not expecting the gfs to look that bad. If this is actually a last second rug pull I’m going to be livid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 If this busts I will spend the rest of my life peeling egg off of my face for spending premium $$ and time returning for 3 days. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen??? And here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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