“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Feb 2024

That was great here lol. 

[shawnmov]

Glad I can go back to hating the Tzachuk brothers now.  USA!

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

i know you meant convection there

robbing some moisture maybe?

Oops haha. Maybe that as well. I don’t hate the mid levels though. 

[MuddyWx]

GFS hiccup - universe couldn't let USA win too much at once

[dendrite]

Euro will come in the most juiced now

[WinterWolf]

If the mesos stay steady it’s game on still. 

[radarman]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

GFS hiccup - universe couldn't let USA win too much at once

Yep

The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dendrite said:

Euro will come in the most juiced now

We pray

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dendrite said:

Euro will come in the most juiced now

Yup.

[Greg]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Euro will come in the most juiced now

Wouldn't be surprised now.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The goalie should be the MVP

Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, radarman said:

Yep

The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony

Need to distract ourselves from the pain of knowing we have wasted 5 days glued to the tidbits website

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. Wonder if this deepening H5 low and CK vexrion playing havoc. 

I'm telling you 18z come back.. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro will come in the most juiced now

Or scoot due east

[EastonSN+]

Canadian

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Yep

The board chanting USA after the GFS pulls the rug on a blizzard is true irony

And the RGEM suddenly looks like a genius

[Kitz Craver]

Serious question though and not weenie bias.. I’m not sure we have ever weighed global guidance too heavily this close in, no?

[Great Snow 1717]

I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen???

[NeonPeon]

The gfs depiction is very similar to what it was when it was being stubborn and the others were out to sea.

[BooneWX]

42 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Yo Boone, been awhile! Maybe you should move up here one of these days to cash in on the goods. XD

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

You guys don’t have sweet tea or Bojangles up there. It’s a non starter lol. Enjoy my friend! That low is starting to crank off of Hatteras - north west flow already ensuing a few miles to my west. 

[MegaMike]

I've been looking at the evaluation webpage again. This time, for precipitation (at fcst 24hr for 12z cycles) thresholds. Anywho, for frequency bias, an ideal prediction is 1.0. Negative values indicates underprediction (doesn't predict the occurrence as much as it should), and + values indicate overprediction (predicts the occurrence too often). Note: The NAM 3km consistency overpredicts for all thresholds and is outperformed by the other mesos.

For equitable threat score (removes outliers), an ideal prediction is 1.0 (0.0 indicating no skill). Based on this metric, HRRR performs best for all thresholds over the past 90 days:

 

Seeing some of the globals trend unfavorably will only bother me if the mesos follow.

[dendrite]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Serious question though and not weenie bias.. I’m not sure we have ever weighed global guidance too heavily this close in, no?

Why would we not weigh the globals now?

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm telling you 18z come back.. 

18Z's are usually overamped. Been this way for a long time now. I always adjust the forecast because of this

[Bostonseminole]

I'm riding the NBM

[weatherwiz]

I haven't see this talked about much but what I think is really going to be a killer in this is going to be areas of major subsidence. I've always been fearful we see a banded precipitation field given how intense the low becomes, but none of the simulated radar reflectivity's have shown this. However, I think it's kind of evident in looking at the fronto banding signatures. 

Ultimately what will happen is there will be spots which make out beautifully and score in the upper end of ranges and there will be spots which struggle to even get to the lower end. No way to really paint that on a map either 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen???

I’m more concerned about Ineed20” and his mental well being if this slides east, 

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Why would we not weigh the globals now?

obviously because they show us the outcome we don't want ha 

[OrangeCTWX]

Wow was not expecting the gfs to look that bad. If this is actually a last second rug pull I’m going to be livid lol

[weathafella]

If this busts I will spend the rest of my life peeling egg off of my face for spending premium $$ and time returning for 3 days.

[Masswx]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I wonder if a wellness check is going to be needed in Methuen???

And here