“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[CCHurricane]

Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.

 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Cape is oblitterated. 

I'll take my deform band. 

[Damage In Tolland]

And why did some folks give up on this yesterday and this morning ? Riddle me that 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I'll take my deform band. 

LOL wtf did it do in the Delmarva? 70" for the blue crabs?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just need a Canadian curling push to the NW about 50 miles

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

And why did some folks give up on this yesterday and this morning ? Diddle me now

Um what?

[SouthCoastMA]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Play the Rocky IV fight song before euro and euro ai?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Um what?

You and they know who they are 

[SouthCoastMA]

This is where the old Dr No would come in and end the party in 90 minutes 

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Strong run-to-run consistency out of Canada.  25mb change...barely perceptible...

Looks the same. On a serious note, with complex phasing/capturing storms it's probably not that unusual to see changes at this timeframe since the most subtle changes earlier in the forecast period can have massive ramifications on the downstream forecast. 

This is a workable setup, and on top of the phasing/timing we'd want to see the ridge axis a hair further west and the closed H5 a little north than currently depicted. Along the same lines, a more northerly trajectory along the coast instead of it heading ENE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12z ICON seems significantly less progressive than 00z.

yeah... I was mentioning to Scott earlier, I don't believe the problems haunting this Monday event are fundamentally fast flow related. 

As I put it earlier ( heh, I like this sentence ...), "there something else guiding this system's demise" - sounds haunting, huh.    haha.  No but seriously, I think this may be a bona fide complexity issue in having so much to iron out in a bag of ass trough in the west.  Otherwise, I don't ( personally) see where the other sensitivities could be lurking that are fucking around with this thing.  

It is entirely possible that a bag of asses gets ejected E and it ends up under performing in a s/w fight.

[dryslot]

Need to get the confluence over canada to lift out a bit sooner and a bit more ridging out ahead of this system on approach would get us a decent event.

[CCHurricane]

It won’t take much to move it another 50 miles…

[ineedsnow]

CMC!!! shes back!!! 

[ineedsnow]

UKIE a beast but mostly OTS

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm.. the GFS is hugely trended guys - that should be the take away.  I realize the dose spilled before it got in the syringe on this run ... get over it.

Seriously, needless ( or should be ...) to remind that at 120 hours away, heh.   I think until we are safely, technologically unlimited to where 2010 Boxing Day type corrections can't happen anymore, 120 hours is an eternity. Plenty of model runs to fumble around and either fuck this up or bring it back. 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL wtf did it do in the Delmarva? 70" for the blue crabs?

70" plus 90 mph winds that would be fun

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

70" plus 90 mph winds that would be fun

Eff would I give to see sub 970 near the BM. It can deform the teets off CT for all I care, that would be incredible.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.

 

One more time on the fringe?  Or like today with breezy blue sky.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eff would I give to see sub 970 near the BM. It can deform the teets off CT for all I care, that would be incredible.

Ya I was thinking just to see a bomb at the BM would be a massive win for us - after all this talk about it not being possible anymore

[MegaMike]

GEFS mean is ~50-100 mile improvement.

If the ECMWF + EPS look better at 12z, I'll feel more enthusiastic about this event.nt.

[Cyclone-68]

As modeled is this storm as intense as the blizzard we missed over a week ago?

[mahk_webstah]

this feels to me like one that is going to keep trending for most of us.  dunno why, maybe because so many runs a few days ago had big solutions, crawlers along the NE coast.  This could really start to get a lot better over the next 2-3 cycles.

[tavwtby]

36 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Nuke for the Cape...widespread 8-12 for most of SE New England.

 

that's a lot of QPF from the Delmarva ots, damn... I'll take a half inch of QPF as snow tho and not complain vs a whiff 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

this feels to me like one that is going to keep trending for most of us.  dunno why, maybe because so many runs a few days ago had big solutions, crawlers along the NE coast.  This could really start to get a lot better over the next 2-3 cycles.

I have a good feeling about this one.. Small favorable shifts at 500mb can take this from a glancing blow to a major blizzard .. We shall see, I've gotten played many times before.. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have a good feeling about this one.. Small favorable shifts at 500mb can take this from a glancing blow to a major blizzard .. We shall see, I've gotten played many times before.. 

Waiting for euro suite to rip off weenie. 

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Waiting for euro suite to rip off weenie. 

Curious if we'll see a Dong of Destiny or if the Bag of Asses will prevail.

Just trying to leverage some of my new-found meteorological jargon I've picked up here.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have a good feeling about this one.. Small favorable shifts at 500mb can take this from a glancing blow to a major blizzard .. We shall see, I've gotten played many times before.. 

i’ll be shocked if this turns back into a sne blizzard. I’ve thought from the get go this should be plowable but not memorable. It will feel great to be wrong though…

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Waiting for euro suite to rip off weenie. 

According to some on here, It doesn't matter anymore.