Prue11 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 20 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: I never watch TV but happened to tune into AccuWeather Channel just now. Bernie Rayo calling for 10-14”. Very conservative across all forecast areas. Meanwhile TWC calling for 18-24 for NYC. SMH. . Rayno has been wrong with nearly every storm this year . Guy is a clown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 22 Author Share Posted February 22 Please no hockey updates. I'm recording the game bc at work planning for my department tomorrow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Good luck from this southerner! I know y’all have waited quite some time for a blockbuster blizzard. Enjoy! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Won’t be in Manhattan for this unless I’m deranged enough to try and take the path in to film a bit. Might be worth it for this one. We’ll see how dangerous the conditions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Please no hockey updates. I'm recording game bc at work planning for my department tomorrow. got it. silence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Plain old rain here in S Brooklyn with meltwater ponding. Hard to see anything sticking here until well after dark and it should cut own on high end totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I added my notes and experience with these miller b type storms systems into cpgt to summarize it: Miller-B storms are defined by a late coastal transfer, where a secondary low forms near the Delmarva and rapidly takes over from the inland primary, setting the stage for sharp impact gradients. The heaviest snow almost always occurs in the deformation band, where strong frontogenesis and mid-level forcing lock in for several hours, producing rates that far exceed model averages. Banding typically pivots northwest late, meaning early offshore or marginal solutions can still evolve into significant accumulations closer to the coast. Cutoffs are sharper than in Miller-A storms, with 20–30 miles often separating warning-level snow from minor accumulations or mixing. Winners are determined by band residence time, not storm totals—locations under a persistent band can double surrounding amounts. Losers are often directly south or east of the main band, where dry slotting, subsidence, or warm air intrusion sharply reduces snow despite proximity to the low. Small timing errors have outsized impacts, as a 6–12 hour difference in transfer or band pivot can completely flip outcomes for places like CNJ and NYC. Thermals and coastal fronts dictate who stays snow, with heavy rates often overcoming marginal surface temperatures in the core of the deformation zone. The biggest totals usually exceed early forecasts, because mesoscale banding intensity and persistence are rarely fully captured until the storm is underway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Switching over to snow in Garwood NJ (central Union County). I need a minimum of 14 inches. Heaviest precip over the Delmarvala. Is that too far north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Please no hockey updates. I'm recording game bc at work planning for my department tomorrow. Gotcha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigmz.php?mz=ANZ920&product1=Hurricane+Force+Wind+Warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is like Christmas morning. Enjoy everyone. Its been years since we saw a blizzard. The birth of your kid has been a good omen. We protect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 2/22 12z NAM That dropped me from 27 to 10 in Southern CT lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 7 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Switching over to snow in Garwood NJ (central Union County). I need a minimum of 14 inches. Heaviest precip over the Delmarvala. Is that too far north? I can confirm here in Kenilworth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Winter warlock what is your guest for snowfall total here in Belle Mead Im going for 15-16 here but coukd be less. I think we avoid the 2 ft amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Cranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 So far just sticking to colder surfaces by me in NJ. But the snowfall is also fairly light, so that makes sense. I expect that as snowfall rates pick up, it will start sticking to roads and sidewalks as well. Sanders/salters are already out pre-treating roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, NYER72 said: Plain old rain here in S Brooklyn with meltwater ponding. Hard to see anything sticking here until well after dark and it should cut own on high end totals. It will stick when it comes down hard. Stop worrying. Im also from south Brooklyn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
21chuck Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 9 minutes ago, NYER72 said: Plain old rain here in S Brooklyn with meltwater ponding. Hard to see anything sticking here until well after dark and it should cut own on high end totals. All the models outputting huge totals accounted for trivial daytime accumulation. It's supposed to be raining right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 So far just sticking to colder surfaces by me in NJ. But the snowfall is also fairly light, so that makes sense. I expect that as snowfall rates pick up, it will start sticking to roads and sidewalks as well. Sanders/salters are already out pre-treating roads. The snowstorm doesn't arrive until 4 pm. This is just an appetizer. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Can literally feel the cold air set in. Working in brooklyn now , and the fingers have started to freeze , down to 35 and icy mix 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just now, MJO812 said: Cranking Thats through 3am more to come , maybe half way or more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: Please no hockey updates. I'm recording the game bc at work planning for my department tomorrow. Russia team comes in the locker room to interfere! Pandemonium on the ice! Wait, here comes hulk hogan he is clearing house! Big leg drop on team russia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The Blizzard of 1888 started as rain I believe. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 37F and light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 The RRFS which is set to replace NAM/ HRRR beefed up / its snow alogrithm is odd QPF Snow ratio undetermined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: The Blizzard of 1888 started as rain I believe. The weather was unseasonably mild just before the blizzard, with heavy rains that turned to snow as temperatures dropped rapidly.[3] On March 12, New York City dropped from 33 °F (1 °C) to 8 °F (−13 °C), and rain changed to snow at 1 A.M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Last WPC update QPF for this storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Just switched to snow at ewr as we drive north. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I took some people at work Friday a little after 9 PM that I was gone for 18 inches in the general area. May be more towards the coast. We'll see. I still think we won't know exactly what's happening until we're in the middle of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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