Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

[anotherman]

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

Geps big time, with a developing-NAO.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

That would be really stupid.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

Hopefully it’s wrong, mostly because our chance of actually getting a snowstorm beyond mid March is probably lower than the Terps making the ncaa tourney.

[aldie 22]

5 out of the last 7 years it has snowed during my company's annual meeting in La Crosse Wisconsin in early April it could happen again 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Hopefully it’s wrong, mostly because our chance of actually getting a snowstorm beyond mid March is probably lower than the Terps making the ncaa tourney.

Sad 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, anotherman said:

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

Classic Mid Altantic spring.

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Classic Mid Altantic spring.

I love a cool Spring, maybe not endless 40s, but I don't want to see 70 until mid April, and 80 until mid May. Even then it should be fleeting. We do heat  better than anything. I can wait.

[dailylurker]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I love a cool Spring, maybe not endless 40s, but I don't want to see 70 until mid April, and 80 until mid May. Even then it should be fleeting. We do heat  better than anything. I can wait.

We do heat like the Tug Does snow. Guaranteed no matter the pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24. 

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. 

We are due for a Moderate Nino with a negative NAO next year then. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

We are due for a Moderate Nino with a negative NAO next year then. 

NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going

[bncho]

This was a super 2010-11-esque winter. Cold but lacking in snow, missed a blockbuster storm due to marginal temps, NYC scored a well above average season while our region gets another below average.

[Amped]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

Sudden stratosphere warming is happening in the next few days. I think we'll get another event between the 17th and the 25th. Winter isn't over until we get screwed 3 times. 

 

[87storms]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Sad 

The Wizards and Terps are as difficult as an Alberta Clipper.

[Dendrimer77]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Geps big time, with a developing-NAO.

Bring it. I don't give AF if we don't have snow as long as it's mid 40s for another month. Plenty of time for 60s and 70s. Save it for late April. Let's delay as long as we can. 

[mitchnick]

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.

New Cansips pretty sweet for next year. This is a link to December, 2026. Scrolling thru to February shows lots of blocking.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to SSTA map starting December. Looks solid moderate Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to surface temps starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to precip starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  Don't plant annuals during the upcoming warm spell.  Winter could return weekend of the 13th.

[Benjamn3]

Ah of course, the annual cold and damp April. 
 

Am I the only sick puppy that likes it? 

[Chris78]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  Don't plant annuals during the upcoming warm spell.  Winter could return weekend of the 13th.

I know we've got 1 last fail in us. Let's go! 

[anotherman]

WB 6Z GEFS.  Don't plant annuals during the upcoming warm spell.  Winter could return weekend of the 13th.

I can’t wait to hear the wailing about it….

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Benjamn3 said:

Ah of course, the annual cold and damp April. 
 

Am I the only sick puppy that likes it? 

The E coast is due for a cold April as the last 3 have actually been mild.

[stormtracker]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  Don't plant annuals during the upcoming warm spell.  Winter could return weekend of the 13th.

  never giving up.  We have 4 seasons.  Yall got 6/9 months of warm and roses and all that jazz.  I want the full 3 months of winter I signed up for.   I hope it snows till April.  

[Maestrobjwa]

On 2/27/2026 at 3:08 PM, MDSnow93 said:

Winter is always a crapshoot on the east coast. And with the elephant in the room, everything's more extreme, and the goalposts are widened. We'll get our turn soon!

 

On 2/27/2026 at 3:24 PM, Terpeast said:

Wow, the color scheme really brings out our luck (or lack thereof) this winter. It could have been one for the ages, but we did not have luck on our side.

That won’t last forever though. It’ll flip at some point. 

But that's the problem with Ninas: We need TOO MUCH luck. More luck than in other enso states (although I know statistically the last couple of neutrals have been even worse snow-wise). There's just way too much flying around in the NS all the time. Like every nina it's "Oh we need wave 1 to do this or wave 2 won't work." Or "This NS piece interfered and phased too early..or too late" all timing stuff that has dominated discussions every nina the last 10 years (and I'll bet decades before, lol). Too. Little. Space. And I'm slightly annoyed when I say "Nina so don't expect much" and somebody chimes in acting like I'm off. Like you can point out examples of "Well just got unlucky" but getting more unlucky than others ensos is what happens with every single nina not named 95-96 or Feb 2006.

So all nina complaints have no business being criticized (except during specific storm threads of course) given that it remains our worst state even with the other elephant issues. That map bncho just posted...you only seem that kind of snow gap with stuff north and south during ninas. Expect less than usual with those...

[Ji]

If the cansips is right next winter will start epic

[Ji]

Modoki El Niño

[Ji]

Modoki El Niño

Where is @psuhoffman

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Modoki El Niño

Ohhh yes. Gotta believe that would give us our best chance to break the mecs/hecs deought. If I believed in the CANSIPS predictions more I'd be stoked! But it feels like a weenie model to me when it’s used for so far in advance...but someone can certainly correct me on that.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+2-3 std +NAO on long range GFS ensembles