Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

[anotherman]

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

Geps big time, with a developing-NAO.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

That would be really stupid.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

Hopefully it’s wrong, mostly because our chance of actually getting a snowstorm beyond mid March is probably lower than the Terps making the ncaa tourney.

[aldie 22]

5 out of the last 7 years it has snowed during my company's annual meeting in La Crosse Wisconsin in early April it could happen again 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Hopefully it’s wrong, mostly because our chance of actually getting a snowstorm beyond mid March is probably lower than the Terps making the ncaa tourney.

Sad 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, anotherman said:

People will be so pissed if we get a week of 70s and then endless 40s and damp.

Classic Mid Altantic spring.

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Classic Mid Altantic spring.

I love a cool Spring, maybe not endless 40s, but I don't want to see 70 until mid April, and 80 until mid May. Even then it should be fleeting. We do heat  better than anything. I can wait.

[dailylurker]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I love a cool Spring, maybe not endless 40s, but I don't want to see 70 until mid April, and 80 until mid May. Even then it should be fleeting. We do heat  better than anything. I can wait.

We do heat like the Tug Does snow. Guaranteed no matter the pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24. 

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. 

We are due for a Moderate Nino with a negative NAO next year then. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, Ephesians2 said:

We are due for a Moderate Nino with a negative NAO next year then. 

NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going

[bncho]

This was a super 2010-11-esque winter. Cold but lacking in snow, missed a blockbuster storm due to marginal temps, NYC scored a well above average season while our region gets another below average.

[Amped]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z AI EPS and to some degree the EPS and GEFS all show trough back in the east by mid March and it continues to deepen.  Worth keeping an eye on this period.

 

Sudden stratosphere warming is happening in the next few days. I think we'll get another event between the 17th and the 25th. Winter isn't over until we get screwed 3 times.