Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

right. Whats the worst that can happen. the 48th rug pull in a row?

That’s going to happen as early as tonight’s Euro.  But this is prob our last battle for glory as a unit. 

[Jake Wx]

maybe some over night snow showers ??

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Would've done unspeakable things to have this happen late January instead of now.

 

 

[DDweatherman]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would've done unspeakable things to have this happen late January instead of now.

 

 

To be honest, probably not. We still see very mixed results on SSW's in our area and their direct impact on sensible wx. It can help, but its not that we didn't have cold in place. Displacing the TPV from over our heads would have been more helpful.

[Bob Chill]

First week of April looks money

[Golf757075]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

First week of April looks money

April fools lol

[snowfan]

Sounds like birds chirping, mulch, seed and fertilizer spreading.

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sounds like birds chirping, mulch, seed and fertilizer spreading.

 

For better or for worse, EuroAI has been advertising a return to cold at the end of its recent runs. 6z has a snowstorm just to our north too. Anyway, this would be cold if correct.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026022606&fh=360

[Terpeast]

48 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sounds like birds chirping, mulch, seed and fertilizer spreading.

 

Bring it. Good time to put netting over my fig tree so the squirrels don't steal all my figs like they did last fall.

[Paleocene]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Bring it. Good time to put netting over my fig tree so the squirrels don't steal all my figs like they did last fall.

I am also ready for the torch. Once we hit March 1st, my enthusiasm for tracking is gone. This map looks great. 

[yoda]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Sounds like birds chirping, mulch, seed and fertilizer spreading.

 

Looks a bit overdone IMO... upper 70s seems a bit of a reach the way this winter has gone re temperatures in the LR.  But I will take 60s

[paulythegun]

Every couple weeks, I do a google news for "polar vortex" for Lols. here's a sampling:

Death of Polar Vortex showing when winter will lose its grip on Michigan

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/death-polar-vortex-showing-winter-221130257.html

 

Polar Vortex: New York Under Threat Of Multiple March Snowstorms

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/polar-vortex-to-bring-multiple-snowstorms-in-new-york-next-month/

[anotherman]

Every couple weeks, I do a google news for "polar vortex" for Lols. here's a sampling:

Death of Polar Vortex showing when winter will lose its grip on Michigan

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/death-polar-vortex-showing-winter-221130257.html  

Polar Vortex: New York Under Threat Of Multiple March Snowstorms

https://hudsonvalleypost.com/polar-vortex-to-bring-multiple-snowstorms-in-new-york-next-month/

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/184f9zjK13/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[psuhoffman]

Westminster's biggest snowstorm on record was March 31-April 1

Yes the odds of snowfall start to go down significantly past March 10th BUT we've had enough random snowstorms even up until about April 1, especially NW of the fall line, to at least keep an eye on it.  See if that random once every 15 years type storm pops up.  If you need days and days of snowcover after and let the fact it starts to melt the next day ruin it for you...then ya maybe you should check out.  lol 

[The Dude]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Westminster's biggest snowstorm on record was March 31-April 1

I had no idea!  What year was this and how much snow did Westminster get?

[paulythegun]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Westminster's biggest snowstorm on record was March 31-April 1

Yes the odds of snowfall start to go down significantly past March 10th BUT we've had enough random snowstorms even up until about April 1, especially NW of the fall line, to at least keep an eye on it.  See if that random once every 15 years type storm pops up.  If you need days and days of snowcover after and let the fact it starts to melt the next day ruin it for you...then ya maybe you should check out.  lol 

Remember April 7, 2018? A decent amount of snow was modeled up until a couple days before the event. Then I believe it fizzled. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/04/04/snow-chances-for-saturday-remain-but-the-accumulation-forecast-is-complicated/

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, The Dude said:

I had no idea!  What year was this and how much snow did Westminster get?

1942: 32"  Official reporting station listing below.  I was off by a couple days it was the 29-30th.  

1942-03-29, 39, 29, 1.10, 10.0, 10
1942-03-30, 52, 26, 2.20, 22.0, 32

Some parts of Carroll county got up to 40"!  

FYI: the 2016 storm might have beat this, reports across Westminster area were 30-34" in that storm, but Westminster lost its official reporting station in 2012.  They had an official reporting station from the 1800s up until 2012 but nothing since.  The airport no longer keeps snowfall data.  The old barracks did but stopped.  

 

[psuhoffman]

By the way...take a look at the temperatures at Westminster on either side of that 32" snowstorm!  This is why I scream at people who say we need to have a cold pattern to get a big snowstorm.  This storm was 10"+ in Baltimore and DC also!  

1942-03-17, 71, 38, 0.26, 0.0, M
1942-03-18, 69, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-19, 50, 38, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-20, 61, 29, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-21, 60, 40, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-22, 59, 38, 0.54, 0.0, M
1942-03-23, 53, 35, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-24, 54, 30, T, T, M
1942-03-25, 56, 27, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-26, 58, 26, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-27, 57, 30, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-28, 55, 38, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-29, 39, 29, 1.10, 10.0, 10
1942-03-30, 52, 26, 2.20, 22.0, 32
1942-03-31, 50, 36, 0.05, 0.0, 18
1942-04-01, 52, 35, 0.00, 0.0, 12
1942-04-02, 59, 33, 0.00, 0.0, 3
1942-04-03, 67, 45, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-04, 65, 45, 0.13, 0.0, M
1942-04-05, 80, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-04-06, 84, 50, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-07, 77, 55, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-08, 72, 53, T, 0.0, M

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Remember April 7, 2018? A decent amount of snow was modeled up until a couple days before the event. Then I believe it fizzled. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/04/04/snow-chances-for-saturday-remain-but-the-accumulation-forecast-is-complicated/

I remember it well...part of the extremely underperforming March/April 2018 period.  We had a really amazing pattern and were very unlucky to only get one snowstorm out of it, and yes even with the time of year.  We had the miller b rug pull storm on March 8th.  There was a good threat around March 14th that got suppressed.  We did get the very good storm March 20th but then there was a boundary wave early April that went just to our north and that storm April 7th which did not fail because of being April the wave got suppressed by a NS SW coming across over the top and the worst possible time and pressed the boundary to our south.  Yes things can get suppressed in April.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

Could the dry pattern finally be breaking?

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

By the way...take a look at the temperatures at Westminster on either side of that 32" snowstorm!  This is why I scream at people who say we need to have a cold pattern to get a big snowstorm.  This storm was 10"+ in Baltimore and DC also!  

1942-03-17, 71, 38, 0.26, 0.0, M
1942-03-18, 69, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-19, 50, 38, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-20, 61, 29, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-21, 60, 40, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-22, 59, 38, 0.54, 0.0, M
1942-03-23, 53, 35, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-24, 54, 30, T, T, M
1942-03-25, 56, 27, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-26, 58, 26, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-27, 57, 30, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-28, 55, 38, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-29, 39, 29, 1.10, 10.0, 10
1942-03-30, 52, 26, 2.20, 22.0, 32
1942-03-31, 50, 36, 0.05, 0.0, 18
1942-04-01, 52, 35, 0.00, 0.0, 12
1942-04-02, 59, 33, 0.00, 0.0, 3
1942-04-03, 67, 45, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-04, 65, 45, 0.13, 0.0, M
1942-04-05, 80, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-04-06, 84, 50, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-07, 77, 55, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-08, 72, 53, T, 0.0, M

It was over 20” in Baltimore and the latest ever storm to have such a vast total.

[TSG]

23 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would've done unspeakable things to have this happen late January instead of now.

 

 

Smarch is back on the menu

[TomAtkins]

Quote

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

By the way...take a look at the temperatures at Westminster on either side of that 32" snowstorm!  This is why I scream at people who say we need to have a cold pattern to get a big snowstorm.  This storm was 10"+ in Baltimore and DC also!  

1942-03-17, 71, 38, 0.26, 0.0, M
1942-03-18, 69, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-19, 50, 38, T, 0.0, M
1942-03-20, 61, 29, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-21, 60, 40, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-22, 59, 38, 0.54, 0.0, M
1942-03-23, 53, 35, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-24, 54, 30, T, T, M
1942-03-25, 56, 27, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-26, 58, 26, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-27, 57, 30, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-28, 55, 38, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-03-29, 39, 29, 1.10, 10.0, 10
1942-03-30, 52, 26, 2.20, 22.0, 32
1942-03-31, 50, 36, 0.05, 0.0, 18
1942-04-01, 52, 35, 0.00, 0.0, 12
1942-04-02, 59, 33, 0.00, 0.0, 3
1942-04-03, 67, 45, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-04, 65, 45, 0.13, 0.0, M
1942-04-05, 80, 46, T, 0.0, M
1942-04-06, 84, 50, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-07, 77, 55, 0.00, 0.0, M
1942-04-08, 72, 53, T, 0.0, M

I actually suspect that by that time of the year youve got to get some wild fluctuations to get the moisture and cold air for big snow. Like a steadily cold pattern just isnt going to do it in January. You need some big waves that come with pretty warm air ahead of the storm and then pulling down unseasonably cold air behind it.

Maybe not so much now - its probably still early enough that just a kind of unseasonably cold pattern would work.

 

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, TSG said:

Smarch is back on the menu

40 and damp for weeks. I hate March in every pattern lol

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

40 and damp for weeks. I hate March in every pattern lol

Enjoy the probable torch late next week because the back door cold fronts are coming