Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Hello?  Anyone? 

In 3 days we lose this current polar-tilting ridge across Alaska (-EPO) to a Polar Vortex placement over northern Greenland and Alaska (+NAO/+EPO). That warms the CONUS pattern very quickly. A ridge starts building in the Mid Atlantic the last day of February and the GEFS has that persisting really through the 2nd week of March. Seasonal trend has been to cool the Northeast, US, so maybe the warm temps will be confined to the Southeast and Midwest, but it's not really a cold pattern that we need at this time of the year for snow.. Best case scenario is something like today again. 

[LeesburgWx]

I'm ready for spring after this week of tracking 2 inches of snow. But of course I hope we have 1 more decent shot at a real storm. I will say, it's actually nice walking on legit snow instead of ice encased snow.

[EastCoast NPZ]

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In 3 days we lose this current polar-tilting ridge across Alaska (-EPO) to a Polar Vortex placement over northern Greenland and Alaska (+NAO/+EPO). That warms the CONUS pattern very quickly. A ridge starts building in the Mid Atlantic the last day of February and the GEFS has that persisting really through the 2nd week of March. Seasonal trend has been to cool the Northeast, US, so maybe the warm temps will be confined to the Southeast and Midwest, but it's not really a cold pattern that we need at this time of the year for snow.. Best case scenario is something like today again. 

In other words, check back in December. 

[NorthArlington101]

Hello?  Anyone? 

I think we’ve got a real shot or two in March whether we want them or not. Trackable, at least.

[Jebman]

Lets track this then! Reel it home! Have a look at the ensembles. Where is Bncho or SnowinOutThere? I know Tracker is in Houston.

Don't.  Tell.  Me. You.  Are. Too. Tired. To. Track.          If you think you are tired, you can sleep when you DIE.

C'mon Guys, you gotta have the proper attitude! Attitude is 90 percent of Life.

[TSSN+]

I can’t do this shit again… lol

 

[LeesburgWx]

36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I can’t do this shit again… lol

 

Only 90 hours out?! Any other model support? I’m too drained to go look myself

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Only 90 hours out?! Any other model support? I’m too drained to go look myself

It’s there on other models just in different positions 

[baltosquid]

Gosh, please. Really seems like it could come down to overnight vs day passage.

[TSSN+]

Euro get me @psuhoffman and @mitchnick land 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro get me @psuhoffman and @mitchnick land 

Yeah this is y'all's. Completely ignoring this one, lol

[baltosquid]

FWIW euro ai came south a bit but it’s faster than other guidance and it is during the day. May have worked out south of the M/D if it happened 6-12 hours later, and it is by a bit the fastest guidance right now it seems.

edit: actually it’s about the same result, but marginally better look at 540. Just need some better timing and a little colder. Confidence in this is low here, screams something that will be for NW

[DDweatherman]

10 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

FWIW euro ai came south a bit but it’s faster than other guidance and it is during the day. May have worked out south of the M/D if it happened 6-12 hours later, and it is by a bit the fastest guidance right now it seems.

edit: actually it’s about the same result, but marginally better look at 540. Just need some better timing and a little colder. Confidence in this is low here, screams something that will be for NW

It’s an event where @psuhoffman has best luck and is why climo is higher

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

It’s an event where @psuhoffman has best luck and is why climo is higher

If this was 30 years ago he would get 10” from this. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Give me what the gfs has on Thursday night and that gets me a respectable winter.  Then it's March and bring on spring.

[jayyy]

If this was 30 years ago he would get 10” from this. 

That’s what she said

[Nomz]

I can't do this shit again

[clskinsfan]

Just bring on the torch at this point. A decade of failure has me salty as hell. 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies indicate could be cold enough through first week of March to support wintry precipitation.  Temps then go above normal second week of March.

[Miss Pixee]

Bring it on. It don't bother me a lick. No hysteria, no whining, no drama.

[Solution Man]

Ain’t happening in these parts, we’re cooked

[clskinsfan]

NAM is a rainer on Thursday. for all of us.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM is a rainer on Thursday. for all of us.

Pretty poor performance for the NAM this weekend, tho no model did that great. RGEM was off by a foot for most people northeast of us.  

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Pretty poor performance for the NAM this weekend, tho no model did that great. RGEM was off by a foot for most people northeast of us.  

Speaking of the RGEM, it came well south with the Thursday SLP placement from the 0Z GGEM.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Pretty poor performance for the NAM this weekend, tho no model did that great. RGEM was off by a foot for most people northeast of us.  

RGEM is a rainer too.

[RickinBaltimore]

56 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB EURO weeklies indicate could be cold enough through first week of March to support wintry precipitation.  Temps then go above normal second week of March.

Bring on spring. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Speaking of the RGEM, it came well south with the Thursday SLP placement from the 0Z GGEM.

It did indeed. N/w crew is definitely in the game.

@clskinsfan it would come on Thursday night. I hope you’re getting plastered with fatties while you enjoy a jebwalk and a brew

[DDweatherman]

Also @Bubbler86 it is a pretty potent little wave, models have beefed up on qpf since a day or two ago. Just need to be on the right side of trends inside d3… oh great 

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM is a rainer on Thursday. for all of us.

Let's just hope it is significant rain out here.

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Also @Bubbler86 it is a pretty potent little wave, models have beefed up on qpf since a day or two ago. Just need to be on the right side of trends inside d3… oh great 

It is a pretty strong wave. We really just need it 50 miles south of what is being modelled. Although the ICON is right in line with the meso's right now.