Late February/Early March 2026 Mid-Long Range

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You could be 100% right. Hell, you could be the smartest poster here. But I wouldn’t want you here at all because you blame everything on everyone else and you’re just annoying.

 

A 14 year old schooling a grumpy 55 year old. This is legendary. 

[BlueDXer75]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gefs looks better than 12z. Someone with better maps confirm? 

Sacrus posted it in NYC thread

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

Sacrus posted it in NYC thread

That's the AI GFS. Either way, the GEFS definitely improved. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

A 14 year old schooling a grumpy 55 year old. This is legendary. 

Sad thing is, the 14yo is more emotionally mature 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sad thing is, the 14yo is more emotionally mature 

More intelligent too.

 

The kids are alright 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS shows about a 23% of accumulating snow. Not saying it is correct, but keep expectations in check.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, bncho said:

You could be 100% right. Hell, you could be the smartest poster here. But I wouldn’t want you here at all because you blame everything on everyone else and you’re just annoying.

 

The comment you replied to is kind of ridiculous on its face, with the "Climo absolutely says no to this one."  Seriously?  Yeah, "climatologically" our odds decrease as we now head later into the season and March.  But "absolutely no" is, to put it not so politely, a silly thing to say.  I guess all those later season and March snows we've gotten over the years never occurred.  In reality, we're generally realistically "in the game" for at least something up to perhaps about mid-March.  Could we end up with little or nothing or even rain from this potential event?  And nothing the rest of the season?  Yeah, sure...of course!  But I wouldn't say that's because "climo told us it's a no-go and it just followed that!"  Each discrete event is its own entity with the given conditions as they exist; in other words, "climatology" is different from "weather."

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

More intelligent too.

 

The kids are alright 

He’s our nobody Fs with him

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EURO

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro Weeklies don't look great unfortunately 

What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EURO

Is there anything after that Will? Or is that it?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EURO

To me this looks fantastic, doesn’t look like a miller b screw job at all type map.  Let’s lock this in. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI EURO

Can't exactly recall what 12Z looked like, but the overall "distribution" looks a bit more "even" so to speak.

[stormtracker]

seems like the 18z Euro got even worse 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

seems like the Euro got even worse

We have AI tho

[Ji]

What are we looking for on the weeklies in late Feb?

Softball weather lol

[Ji]

seems like the 18z Euro got even worse 

Man I hate that model with all that’s in me

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

Man I hate that model with all that’s in me

It loves us enough to tell us the truth, lol (except last February). I'd put my bet on it having the right idea...hope not but again...it fits this winter's personality, lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It loves us enough to tell us the truth, lol (except last February). I'd put my bet on it having the right idea...hope not but again...it fits this winter's personality, lol

We are just so used to it being right but it has been dethroned imo.  I think there’s a better chance it trends to the AI than vice versa. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Man I hate that model with all that’s in me

Cheeseburger Happy meal, tootsie pops, cotton candy, grape Nehi,...

[Snowman.]

The Euro has been pretty poor this winter.. it's very interesting to see such a continuing disparity between it and the AI. 

[Weather Will]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Is there anything after that Will? Or is that it?

I don't see anything else at this time.

[Ji]

This is my last tracking of the winter. I’ll be out if you all hair soon

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You all are living in the land of delusion. Climo absolutely says no to this one. 

You might say thats trolling or banter. But It will turn out to be the best analysis in here come Sunday. Just wait. 

Broken fucking record. 

@stormtracker

This turd needs to be limited to the Panic Room

[Quasievil]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The Euro has been pretty poor this winter.. it's very interesting to see such a continuing disparity between it and the AI. 

Until that’s settled, you can’t trust either of them, IMO.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is my last tracking of the winter. I’ll be out if you all hair soon

We'll have something pop up in March. Always do. 

[TSSN+]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

seems like the 18z Euro got even worse 

How could it get worse? It isn’t show nothing at 12z. Maybe it will get so bad it turns good. 

[CAPE]

For some reason I'm not too worried about a complete whiff to the South or east. Temps are the main problem so we need a strong low with dynamics. A weak pos wont do it.

Something about this looks different to me compared to recent fails.. maybe I am imagining things.  Anyone want to take a stab at it?  Other than the +PNA.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

How could it get worse? It isn’t show nothing at 12z. Maybe it will get so bad it turns good. 

You mean, it IS (or was) showing nothing at 12Z? 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

This is my last tracking of the winter. I’ll be out if you all hair soon

March snow generally sucks here.  Has to be some crazy set up we never seem to get.  Especially after the time change.