2/15-16: Slopocalypse or Bust

[rjvanals]

Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Lol nice. I only had the 2014 2 door sport s (anvil) but I remember my aunt had a 96 (around that year) red grand Cherokee and it was awesome. I drove it a few times. Those Stellantis prices, though. What are your thoughts on the current base Wranglers with the steel rims? I feel like they look a bit cheap, but I guess they’re more rugged?

No idea lol. At some point I will be looking to upgrade. Getting close to 120k miles.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

Euro is so frustrating since w heavier precip we’d probably get snow even into the metros w surface temps of 34 

So serious analysis. It’s close. Boundary temps are the only issue. Places NW of 95 in MD are at 34-35 during the height of the storm with .25-.35 qpf across guidance now. If the storm were to amp say 2mb deeper and that became .5 qpf it would be enough to flip to a 1-3” snow.  4mb and .75 qpf and its a 3-5” wet snow!  It’s that close. The track is perfect. But our temps are torched at the surface so we need a stronger storm to max dynamic cooling 2 degrees more than current progs. 
 

How likely is this?  10-20%. Getting that amount of error isn’t unlikely but unfortunately it’s more likely to be in the other direction. Models have a slight over amp bias and a +qpf bias. So we’re rooting for a bust that goes the opposite way or typical errors!  Not impossible. There have been examples. It’s not totally dead. But it’s on life support and we need some world class surgeon to swoop in and perform a miracle surgery. 

[Bob Chill]