2026-2027 Super El Nino

[snowman19]

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.

An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far?

We’ll  have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter.

Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.

[LakePaste25]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do you know what the solid red contours and the dashed blue contours mean? Trying to learn this. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Barring a major volcanic eruption, like we had with Pinatubo in 1991, I'm almost certain next summer in most of the Eastern US is going to be record breaking hot. We may not see the high temps of 2011 or earlier this month, but the heat will be more consistent throughout like in 2010 and 2016 (both post-el nino summers).

 

[bluewave]

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

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Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

[LakePaste25]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline

 

 

 

I was asking about the contours in the rossby wave source map. Assuming those are 200mb ridges and troughs (with the opposite sign).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

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If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record.

 

 

1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026

 

 

 

 

Climatologist49

 

@climatologist49.bsky.social

 

Follow

Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates).

 

 

9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

I thought July 2012 broke the record for the warmest month. Or is that still in verification stage?

[snowman19]

 

This system is now self-sustaining, positive feedback with the standing wave and is just going to continue strengthening, warming and maintaining the convection/westerly flow

 

[Jebman]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

As strong El Niño as it gets…..

 

 

And the subsurface heat/DWKW is reloading and strengthening under the 30C warm pool and is going to get pushed to the South American coast in the next month by the DWKWs and WWBs. The thermocline depression is ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: @LakePaste25 The lines are showing the 20C isotherm depth vs climatology 20C isotherm depth in the thermocline

 

 

 

The excellent news keeps on coming! We are gonna have such an exciting very rainy fall/winter here in Texas! Bring on that MONSTER NINO and the Brobdingnagian subtropical jet!!!!!!! And, bring on highly abnormal moisture feeds from the deep tropics, straight into South Central Texas!!!! Bring on moisture soundings over my region with water content 25 deviations above normal!

This place is soon gonnabe flood central!!!! Lookin forward to some truly EPIC jebwalks near where the waters are rising, while I use my old snow ruler to measure the water depth just like the old days back in the DMV!

[snowman19]

This is just ridiculous. Westerlies clear across the entire tropical Pacific basin

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is just ridiculous. Westerlies clear across the entire tropical Pacific basin

That's pretty cool. 

[EasternLI]

4 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I was asking about the contours in the rossby wave source map. Assuming those are 200mb ridges and troughs (with the opposite sign).

Yes. Really a lot going on in this map, but man what a great plot. Those are the components of the H200 wave trains just like you're thinking. Also VP 200 anomalies in shading. Wave activity flux arrows. Plus the waveguides are the indigo bands. Sort of feels like we're looking at some of what's been discussed in here too. Namely, el nino taking command of the tropics with more of a -pdo flavor hanging on in the North Pacific for now. I'm really curious to watch how the north pacific evolves throughout this powerhouse event. It's an interesting case all around. 

 

[Ephesians2]

 

Ah yes, "Heavy Snow Threat" in Orlando. 

Thanks, AI slop. 

[raindancewx]

Canadian looks like it did an OK job on precipitation for July in the US. It had a bad read on the SE/SW US placement, but pretty closer for northern precip.

The cooler than average middle of the US didn't verify at all though. I think we'll see similar model issues all Fall-Spring. Moisture is much more directly tied to the subtropical jet/SOI/how strong the El Nino is. The temperature pattern is PDO centric. Most interesting outcome for winter would be if subtropical jet remains very strong and PDO weakens enough to not be a major influence, with the Arctic/Pacific patterns fighting for dominance week to week or month to month.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

Ah yes, "Heavy Snow Threat" in Orlando. 

Thanks, AI slop. 

Gotta' love how Florida is still in the snow despite being south of the mean slp track depicted on that map. 

The "A" part I believe...the "I" part, nasso' much.

[George001]

I’m not sure why I’m seeing people touting the -PDO + super nino combo as a cold/snowy signal for the east when that isn’t supported by historical precedence. The super nino obviously isn’t going anywhere, so I would think those rooting for a snowier outcome in the east would want the PDO to rise, not remain negative.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m not sure why I’m seeing people touting the -PDO + super nino combo as a cold/snowy signal for the east when that isn’t supported by historical precedence. The super nino obviously isn’t going anywhere, so I would think those rooting for a snowier outcome in the east would want the PDO to rise, not remain negative.

It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year.
 

This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter

[GaWx]

-SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.

[snowman19]

Yes it’s the CFS for September, but Holy El Niño!

[snowman19]

As @csnavywx suspected, we are going to handedly surpass 1997….



We are on the verge of breaking 1997’s -SOI record (@Gawx), we are warmer in region 3.4, we are neck and neck in region 1+2 and we have broken 1997’s OHC record

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m not sure why I’m seeing people touting the -PDO + super nino combo as a cold/snowy signal for the east when that isn’t supported by historical precedence. The super nino obviously isn’t going anywhere, so I would think those rooting for a snowier outcome in the east would want the PDO to rise, not remain negative.

They think ENSO is just some sliding scale where the warmest ENSO = no snow and less warm ENSO = more snow and anything that counters “warmest ENSO” means more snow.  It’s not true, it’s much more nuanced as it has been discussed plenty of times in this very thread. 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

They think ENSO is just some sliding scale where the warmest ENSO = no snow and less warm ENSO = more snow and anything that counters “warmest ENSO” means more snow.  It’s not true, it’s much more nuanced as it has been discussed plenty of times in this very thread. 

A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled. 

[bluewave]

The -PDO continues to exceed seasonal model forecasts.

 

 

[LakePaste25]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A Nino is just one piece of the pie. Sure it may affect other pieces but it's still a separate entity. And in today's changing climate the signals are more muddled. 

This is what I was referring to. If this is how someone makes their seasonal forecast, you should immediately unsubscribe from them.

 

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

-SOI has reached 74 straight days! That will continue supporting robust warming of Nino 3.4.

With today's -16.25, the streak, which began on May 11 is 75 days. The record is 100 consecutive days (January 3 through April 12, 1998). Daily records only go back to 1991.

[George001]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year.
 

This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter

I get the whole wanting to get clicks and money thing (the east coast is a populated area with a bigger market)…. But for me as a skier I want a realistic forecast, not wishcasting or doom casting. That’s why I don’t pay attention to what they are saying on social media, I have a select few people I listen to on here and elsewhere and block out the noise when it comes to winter forecasts. I care about results and track record, so clickbaiters like JB don’t get my views. I know we don’t always see eye to eye, but I do think you are correct that the super Nino + -PDO = snowy narrative is a load of horseshit for several reasons: 
 

1. 57-58 and 65-66 happened in an older, cooler climate. 57-58 in particular I looked at the temp profiles, and they were more borderline than cold east, it isn’t clear to me one way or another whether a repeat of that pattern would favor a snowy outcome in today’s climate. It’s not like 14-15 where a repeat of that would be cold + snowy east today.
 

2. Those years are cherry-picked. I haven’t heard one peep about 72-73 and 23-24, which were also -PDO super El Niños and horrific winters in the east. If you are going to be objective, you include all the -PDO strong or super El Niño years, not just the ones you like. Cherry-picking data to push a narrative is something I cannot stand, I see this bullshit all the time in sports too with young players and or prospects. What I and or others want to happen is irrelevant, the data is the data, and it is unscientific to cherry pick to fit a narrative. 
 

Also, weren’t those cherry picked years more strongly -NAO (I’m pretty sure 65-66 was)? From my understanding the part of the solar cycle we are in favors more of a neutral to positive NAO, not negative (this was brought up last year, and the NAO was indeed slightly positive this past winter. Actually the past few winters have been +NAO). Chucks NAO formula last I checked predicts an NAO close to neutral (Chuck, feel free to correct me if I’m wrong here). I know there are mixed signals, but the point is there isn’t really much support for the NAO to be as negative like it was during some of the snowier big Nino years. I would consider that to be a big issue when years like say 09-10 are brought up as well. 

[BlizzardWx]

On 7/23/2026 at 7:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.

In fact, I think that the odds of this changing into fall are pretty good. At some point the el nino pattern may just break in as tropics and midlatitude better connect with time. 

[BlizzardWx]

Recent trends of all the nino regions together. You can really see nino 4 leveling off while the others continue to build. 

[BlizzardWx]

Somebody had made a comment on the cold 80+ N area the other day, but worth noting that sea ice continues to remain near record lows for the date. 

[SnowGoose69]

10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the latest fantasy from the usual east coast weenie suspects on social media who are looking for any excuse possible to downplay and say a super El Niño is not going to happen and it’s not going to couple in the atmosphere/ocean. First it was the RONI cope, failed, then it was the SOI cope, failed, then it was the Modoki cope, failed, then it was the MEI cope, failed, now it’s the negative PDO cope. Just an insane circus show this year.
 

This asinine, delusional “-PDO with a super east-based El Niño means a very cold and snowy winter in the east..1957-58 and 1965-66 are the analogs” wishcast was dreamed up by none other than JB once he realized his MEI cope was destined to fail and it’s spreading like wildfire with Mark Moregarbage and the other fools on twitter

I'll believe we have a -PDO this winter when I see it.  Last winter was the least -PDO in quite awhile.  My hunch is neutral is the best we are getting on that scale.  I do think what Steve D/Joe B are harping on has some merit that the non Nino region SSTs being so warm is going to likely interfere in some form with the El Nino behaving as a similar type El Nino may have behaved back in the 70s/80s/90s.  That assumes IF those non Nino region SSTs are still that warm in Nov-Feb, but given they have been crazy warm like that for seemingly a decade now I'd assume that remains that way this winter.   I have no idea what that result is, it certainly does not guarantee it'll be 09-10 or 87-88 again in BWI/DCA but it may mean the winter is markedly colder/snowier than 15-16 23-24 97-98 82-83 were.  I just toss 23-24 in the garbage as it basically was a totally nonsensical strong Nino.