Cobalt Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 hours ago, mitchnick said: It is not, nor has it ever been, on my list of life's concerns at all. Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 33 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. Isn’t that pretty much the case with everything humans do/have done? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, Cobalt said: Well yeah, because you won't live to see its worst consequences. Easy to be myopic about such a thing when its worst effects are yet to be seen, and that when they do come to fruition, it'll be a different generation who bears the responsibility of cleaning up the mess. Nope. It's called faith. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd be careful with the bold ... The straight up linear correlation, sure - that's ...sort of similar to the tripole SST state, which is highly correlated to -NAOs..etc..etc..but, the causality of why that colder region is notable there is circumstantially - quite possibly - evolved for different reason.. Mimicry, in other words. There's is ongoing research about a recent decadal persistent "Atlantic cold blob" that is being geophysically connected to a longer term changes/flux of the AMOC ... Of course, CC and attribution science is all over that. Some bigger media, definitely social media doomers, are pumping out warnings how that portends the end of the G-string circulation eddy et al ... reaming on people's chode hair that the new paradigm will mean a black and white noir this that and the other Michael Bay plot line surreality ... yadda yadda. Who knows, but the point is, if there are kernels of truth to that whole science and/or science-narrative, on-going, then it's being caused for other reasons. Decadal trend lines of NAO are pretty linear with what's happening. We've had pretty much 14 straight +NAO Winter's, at the height of this decadal +NAO phase. Some think it's associated with lagged +AMO. Over the next several decades the "long term cold blob" will likely be somewhere else or reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It seems that NAO is far more malleable and influenced by the solar cycle and ENSO than the AO, so I feel strongly that the AO will be lower than the NAO this season. That's really been a story for a long time now. Since 2012, Summer Arctic Summer SLP anomaly (60-90) has reversed for the following Winter almost every time! Gawx showing cold records consistently happening there this warm season is a strong signal for Winter -AO I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 56 minutes ago Author Share Posted 56 minutes ago On 7/20/2026 at 11:22 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Notice 1997-1998 didn't have a big +NAO? It occurred during ascending solar, not too far removed from solar min....not to mention -QBO. I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average January the coldest month of the year was -NAO 97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 50 minutes ago Share Posted 50 minutes ago 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I wouldn't call it big +NAO. It looks pretty neutral as a Winter average January the coldest month of the year was -NAO 97-98 had potential to be a good Winter imo. The N. pacific trough extending north into +EPO, further north than mean of other El Nino's, tipped that one warm. Remember the EPO is the most sensitive and volatile region for CONUS temps. For north in latitude isn't necessarily as connected to ENSO as Hadley/mid-latitude cell. Agree...what I said. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 41 minutes ago Author Share Posted 41 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree...what I said. lol Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Oh I thought it was rhetorical lol Nope, literal- question mark was confusing, I guess. My bad- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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