2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account  Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.

yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. 

Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Getting more of an El Nino pattern, N. Pacific low at 216hr. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff. 

[GaWx]

21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. 

 

 

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run.

I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 

23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff. 

Same. Last time I had it out with him a few weeks ago there was an OT thread started and I suggested dialectical behavioral therapy to him...I was serious, too....I really think he'd benefit from it, as would his interpersonal relationships. I don't intend it as some big insult, either....I've participated in it as a clinical and a patient and it's something the majority of us could benefit from.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol

He really does know his stuff and has valuable insights....but I think unfortunately many get distracted from a great deal of the value that he offers by the obvious emotional struggles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still struggle with that, but have gotten better...it's just tough when you have a history of struggling to be receptive to alternative viewpoints and spend so much time and effort articulating your own thoughts....all of the investment, which is ostensibly a positive in that it's a vehicle for growth, tends to leave me more susceptible to undervaluing dissenting viewpoints. It's a balance between the understanding the that the incorporation of others' thoughts is ideal, and the instinct to be protective over an ideology that you have spent in an inordinately excessive amount of time and effort formulating.

That is the essence of DBT in a nutshell...utilizing the ability to balance the extremes in life to identify and correct maladaptive thought and behavioral patterns to improve intrapersonal relationships.

It's apparent on social media that many folks within weather circles could use a DBT course.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 

23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. 

 But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 But this Nino at +1.8 is already stronger than 23-4 at its +1.5 peak. This is going to dwarf 23-4.

I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo. 

[annunciated]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account  Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy.

i bet on that day he would make his responses just days later or even lurk with some emoticons on different posts...I was wrong, lol.

EDIT: Small banter, sorry!

[A-L-E-K]

free snowman#s

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, annunciated said:

i bet on that day he would make his responses just days later or even lurk with some emoticons on different posts...I was wrong, lol.

EDIT: Small banter, sorry!

Probably best for his mental health...I applaud the resolve to actually do it.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave.

Almost like The Shining, only in snowmans version there is no snow because of a nuclear el nino.

[michsnowfreak]

On 8/9/2026 at 12:55 PM, LakePaste25 said:

Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.  

Of course its reasonable. I haven't seen anyone say or imply otherwise for the GL/NE. However, the discussion that... it probably wont be record warm or a wall to wall torch, and that there isnt a linear correlation of the stronger the nino to the warmer the winter...is very triggering for some.

[GaWx]

 This OISST relative 3.4 anomaly graph shows a rapid warming the prior 48 hours of ~0.2C.

[LakePaste25]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Of course its reasonable. I haven't seen anyone say or imply otherwise for the GL/NE. However, the discussion that... it probably wont be record warm or a wall to wall torch, and that there isnt a linear correlation of the stronger the nino to the warmer the winter...is very triggering for some.

I’ve been stressing that here nonstop (along with a few others) and even snowman agreed with me to some extent. If people are getting triggered over that, it’s mostly happening outside of this thread.

[EasternLI]

Granted this is from the July run. But the Jamstec wasn't far off from a CFS or Cansips situation either. Will be interesting to see when it updates. Although, I'm on the same page with bluewave on these seasonal model runs. They're geared towards enso more than anything else. That's where they hold the most skill. So you often see straight enso composites from them the further you go out in time and they can miss things in the mid latitudes. They're simply not tuned for that. Interesting to see some of these solutions regardless.

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I’ve been stressing that here nonstop (along with a few others) and even snowman agreed with me to some extent. If people are getting triggered over that, it’s mostly happening outside of this thread.

Maybe "triggered" was a poor word choice, although ive seen it used by some incorrectly to reference the cold/snow posters a lot too.

The models are certainly colder/less warm than I was expecting for this strong nino. But im really more interested/worried about precip patterns. A part of me really likes the wetter look of a lot of models (even tho the brunt is east) and the idea of a juiced jet. But cant discount the overall tendency of drier in El ninos.

[annunciated]

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Granted this is from the July run. But the Jamstec wasn't far off from a CFS or Cansips situation either. Will be interesting to see when it updates. Although, I'm on the same page with bluewave on these seasonal model runs. They're geared towards enso more than anything else. That's where they hold the most skill. So you often see straight enso composites from them the further you go out in time and they can miss things in the mid latitudes. They're simply not tuned for that. Interesting to see some of these solutions regardless.

 

That's good for Jamstec that it can spot that SE US cold anomaly that far out, especially if it does bad in the mid latitudes...and also assuming it verifies cold, lol.

[GaWx]

 The latest 10 day mean of CFSv2 op runs for JFM is even colder than what had very briefly just become the coldest ever CFSv2 10 day JFM mean that I had ever seen, which I posted last night! 

 It has KATL at -3C/-5.4F vs the 1991-2020 mean. That’s 44F. For reference: since 1980 only one JFM has been 45F or lower: 2010’s 43F!

[BlizzardWx]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think even if it were a Weak El Nino the model would show N. Pacific trough for the Winter. Not saying we aren't going to get it, just noticed that 100% of the time it predicts ENSO climo. 

That is what I was saying the other day by the way. I think they see the ENSO forcing and go with it. They don't see some of the other stuff that obviously matters, so they miss anything that deviates from the stock forcing that ENSO gives you. 

[so_whats_happening]

This has been fascinating to see over the last month in the movement of the warm anomalies in the north pacific. Also I believe I remember seeing bluewave point this out before but you can see the warming of the waters ahead of Dolphin.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

This has been fascinating to see over the last month in the movement of the warm anomalies in the north pacific. Also I believe I remember seeing bluewave point this out before but you can see the warming of the waters ahead of Dolphin.

Odd, it seemed to have backed west

[EastonSN+]

On 8/8/2026 at 10:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

Thanks for posting this. That season was one favorable pattern after another.

I believe that season could have had even higher snowfall totals in today's environment given the added heat/moisture availability. I remember multiple storms where I had hours of virga and snowfall with temps in the teens and lower 20s. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for posting this. That season was one favorable pattern after another.

I believe that season could have had even higher snowfall totals in today's environment given the added heat/moisture availability. I remember multiple storms where I had hours of virga and snowfall with temps in the teens and lower 20s. 

Yeah, 2009-10 and 2010-11 proved that. Those winters had a lot of snow in a very short period of time. Imagine how high they would have gone if they didn't come to an abrupt end.