2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

I've tried finding some ENSO reconstruction studies via proxies and can't find anything pointing to something this large. Still looking though. Prob safe to say 150y at this point. Might be realistically as long as 1kyr or something like that. A few recent papers have pointed towards increasing ENSO variance and amplitude with continued warming:

Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate | Nature Communications (2022)

 

 

 

And:

 

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Nature Communications (2025)

 

 

 

 

 

Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away).

 

The million dollar question, as @BlizzardWx points out, for this season is how far east the warm pool gets and how far east convection gets rooted into this winter. I think it may be as far east as 120W, given that we're already ahead of 1997 (which got to 140W). We're in such rarified air here, it's hard to tell.

[csnavywx]

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:

 

50 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away).

We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future.

https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction

Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO₂ levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO₂ levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says.

https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago

The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian.

“The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”

[ensonerd1233e343]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2023 was pretty out of sync from a solar perspective, though, so I do think there was some resistance that may not be readily apparent. This year we have the massive, unprecedented OHC working in conjunction with the favorable descent of solar cycle 25....perfect storm, so to speak.

This connection between descending solar and intense El Niño can be explained by the same "bottom up" theory that research originally incorrectly applied to the supposed link between solar max and +NAO, which has since been debunked by more modern work. Here is a schematic explaining why La Nina is favored during high solar, as was the case last winter.

 

Obviously, the inverse is true during descending solar, as is the case currently. More clouds leads to less evaporation and warmer sea surface temperatures, which results in weaker trades with stronger WWBs carrying moisture and warmer waters to the west. This weakens the Walker Cell, leading to stronger MC subsidence in the west, which reduces tropical convection.

 

The descending portion of solar cycle 25 has been met with the highest OHC in recorded history throughout the Pacific basin, hence we are seeing the strongest El Nino in recorded history materialize.

 

Im sorry i dont think solar has a big impact on enso 

[csnavywx]

44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future.

https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction

Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO₂ levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO₂ levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says.

https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago

The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian.

“The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”

Interesting article that would solve part of the kill mechanism of the P-T.

Too difficult to compare today. We have a better continental configuration with more evolved ecosystems, a somewhat smaller basin and ice sheets+lower albedo to work with, but a sun that's 2-3% brighter. The buffer is obviously better, even if the "hothouse" ceiling has fallen a lot since then due to luminosity increases.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

Im sorry i dont think solar has a big impact on enso 

Pretty clear to me that it plays a role, as it does in just about everything. Is it the only factor? Of course not...but the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute the solar heat that builds in the west Pacific as a product of the Walker Cycle, so it definitely has an impact.

[LakePaste25]

Is there anything at this point between now and October that could stop this from becoming the Wilma of El Nino events? Seems like it’s becoming so well coupled in the tropics that that there really isn’t. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We are beating the previous high for this date by +20%! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

One of the more healthy subsurface's you will ever see. The 30c mark extends down -100m! That's 86F. 

[MJO812]

Farmers Almanac is out

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-2026-2027-winter-weather-forecast?fbclid=IwdGRjcAThvfpjbGNrBOG993Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEe6Q6eQZ92kDTC3QkLhdnoGnQMMx9OQIAhNlz7ZiVzJdXYOAO43PMNEU5G158_aem_EFovHai4sN_eBYr16qi4hQ

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Farmers Almanac is out

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-2026-2027-winter-weather-forecast?fbclid=IwdGRjcAThvfpjbGNrBOG993Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEe6Q6eQZ92kDTC3QkLhdnoGnQMMx9OQIAhNlz7ZiVzJdXYOAO43PMNEU5G158_aem_EFovHai4sN_eBYr16qi4hQ

Actually, this statement isn't so outrageous as that map may suggest:

"The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns.

Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow—particularly during January and February.

Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow."

[Jebman]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

I hope with all my rain weenie heart, that this is IS INDEED the very WORST Nino in 1000 years! Because if it is, no matter how east-based this thing turns out to be, Texas will get very very wet indeed! And, I will be the happiest man on earth!

BRING ON THAT TROPICAL PACIFIC FRESHWATER FIREHOSE! Solder that puppy FULL-ON!

I want to watch those water levels rise, and to be able to say at long last, This is beginning to remind me of Ian in Ft Myers in 2022 !!!!! Or of Harvey back in 2017 !!!!

[cmillzz]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

dude is a living meme

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Surprisingly weak correlations for Winter 27-28, if anyone is wondering. The El Nino will be highest on record by 15-20% so it's a good data point. I'm actually surprised that it doesn't reverse to a la nina pattern, based on history. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

One of the more healthy subsurface's you will ever see. The 30c mark extends down -100m! That's 86F. 

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.

[Jebman]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Farmers Almanac is out

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/farmers-almanac-2026-2027-winter-weather-forecast?fbclid=IwdGRjcAThvfpjbGNrBOG993Bkb2YFZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQMMzUwNjg1NTMxNzI4AAEe6Q6eQZ92kDTC3QkLhdnoGnQMMx9OQIAhNlz7ZiVzJdXYOAO43PMNEU5G158_aem_EFovHai4sN_eBYr16qi4hQ

I love the forecast for south central Texas: Wetter than normal and stormy! Bring on that Pacific firehose of rain! I am actually thinking of changing my name here to Floodman! Here's to hoping for truly EPIC Brobdingnagian amounts of rain this autumn, winter on well into spring 2027!

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Actually, this statement isn't so outrageous as that map may suggest:

"The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns.

Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow—particularly during January and February.

Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain, and accumulating snow."

The map looks like something @MJO812drew up on the shitter, but I largely endorse the narrative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Surprisingly weak correlations for Winter 27-28, if anyone is wondering. The El Nino will be highest on record by 15-20% so it's a good data point. I'm actually surprised that it doesn't reverse to a la nina pattern, based on history. 

Looks like -WPO is favored next winter? Would fit with the theme of the recent shift.

[GaWx]

 Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

[MarcmmKU]

On 8/5/2026 at 8:44 AM, George001 said:

He needs to go outside and touch grass, in the real world if he told say his coworkers, friends family etc that there’s an incoming historic super Nino and it would lead to a mild winter in the east, most people are gonna respond to that with a “fuck yeah I’m not gonna have to shovel as much”…. I’m not happy about it because I ski, but in my experience most people prefer warm with less snow. I mean hes right that there is a historic super Nino coming, but a mind that ruminates about everyone who disagrees with you is not a mind optimized for efficiency. Let those people who think there won’t be a super Nino be confidently wrong… It’s a waste of time to try to convince some rando idiots on twitter and even care about what they think. Some people are going to be delusional and wishcast, we don’t do that on this subforum, he should grow up and just get over it and not give people he doesn’t like the time of day. They will continue to do what they do no matter what he says or what tantrum Adam throws, and Adam is going to do what he does. It is what it is. 

The real losers with these very strong el ninos are the ski resorts and skiers in the east (sad for us). 90% of other people prefer less snow and highs in the 50s and 40s instead of 30s and 20s like the last winter.

[MarcmmKU]

On 8/5/2026 at 8:51 AM, TriPol said:

Super El Nino gives us a super sub-tropical jet which, if merged with the pacific jet or arctic jet during a cold time in december, january or feb, can give us historic blizzards. There is going to be an incredibly active STJ Autumn/Winter. We just need a bit of cold air to go with that and BOOM. We have never ever seen anything like this before -- it's going to be very exciting to watch. 

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

[MarcmmKU]

On 8/5/2026 at 9:14 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. 

The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.

If we can finally eradicate the boiling oceans in the western pac and get a strong +PDO for the late 2020s it will be worth it, even if the coast gets 0 snow all winter long.

[LakePaste25]

10 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

We are finally seeing an appreciable cold pool form so we may be at the peak of WWB events in the next month, doesn't mean the WWBs can not continue but the severity of them should start to wane soon. At this rate I am also not so sure we go right into a La Nina and a deep one at that, of course time will tell.

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Not sure I agree with that for the latter half of the season.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, MarcmmKU said:

I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.

Thats a bold statement this far out.  I have no clue why people do this every year.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

I would expect lingering Nino 1+2 warmth well into next spring and summer. If I remember correctly, when 1+2 fails to cool down like that we usually get a weaker Nina rebound or just stay cold neutral. Would have to look more into the data. 

The closest examples I could find since the 50's (unless my eyes are deceiving me).

1983/84 region 1+2 stayed warm through at least early winter but was a La Nina at about -1ish status.

1986-1988 timeframe we had the double Nino event but they were about moderate to strong status before we cooled down.

1991-92 went to neutral and had a bit of a lagged 1+2, went cool neutral the following winter (92-93) and then 93-94 had a warm neutral.

1997-98 went pretty well into Nina mode but was west while Nino 1+2 remained neutral before tumbling at the end 98-99 winter.

2015-16 cooled through most regions while 1+2 warmed as we went into winter of 17/18 other areas being cool neutral.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Some correlation to a weaker Nina state but not necessarily the only outcome. It really I think depends just how the Nino state breaks down what will determine the following year. Would be interesting to look at the wind patterns for the transitions of each of these years.

Edit: Again all this assuming the 1+2 does not exactly cool down which is something we will have to watch as we head into fall.

[annunciated]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area has been doing relatively well!

 This has quite possibly been helped by the coldest late May-early Aug on record per DMI 80+ N Arctic mean temp since records started in 1958:

I was pretty astonished in July that it was hovering at the freezing line and are indeed astonished now it remained that way through peak summer heating at the poles.

[bluewave]

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

+10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF.

But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge.

The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. 

December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. 

 

+10 months since 1997-1998

Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest

Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East

Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East

Dec 2015 Much of East

Feb 2016 Upper Plains

Mar 2016 Upper Midwest

Dec 2023 Upper Midwest

Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

 

 

 

I could totally see double digit + departures in December.