2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs?

This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998.

Just add the accumulated heat in the WPAC to the mix and we get an historic event like this one. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs? This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weaker super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998. 

 

 

I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.

[GaWx]

I know this Nino is headed toward 175 year record obliterating status. Be that as it may, is Maue being just a bit overly-dramatic for clicks/likes? It sounds so dramatic that it sounds like sarcasm:

 He originally said this way back in April:

 

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/weather-report/weather-expert-warns-this-years-mega-el-nino-could-be-strongest-since-1877/amp

 

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm quite confident that it's related to the massive amount of OHC that has built up in the western Pacific basin.

We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now.

The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme. 
 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now.

The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme. 
 

 

2023 was pretty out of sync from a solar perspective, though, so I do think there was some resistance that may not be readily apparent. This year we have the massive, unprecedented OHC working in conjunction with the favorable descent of solar cycle 25....perfect storm, so to speak.

This connection between descending solar and intense El Niño can be explained by the same "bottom up" theory that research originally incorrectly applied to the supposed link between solar max and +NAO, which has since been debunked by more modern work. Here is a schematic explaining why La Nina is favored during high solar, as was the case last winter.

 

Obviously, the inverse is true during descending solar, as is the case currently. More clouds leads to less evaporation and warmer sea surface temperatures, which results in weaker trades with stronger WWBs carrying moisture and warmer waters to the west. This weakens the Walker Cell, leading to stronger MC subsidence in the west, which reduces tropical convection.

 

The descending portion of solar cycle 25 has been met with the highest OHC in recorded history throughout the Pacific basin, hence we are seeing the strongest El Nino in recorded history materialize.