40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Looking at the Cfs2 past March, it warms up North America pretty fast getting you to this early forecast for May. So the relative extreme heat from this Niño does get distributed thru the conus/planet, but not until late spring into summer and beyond. Just a thought. That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO. Yeah, it's time to start paying attention. When there is a cold signal this strong during a robust el nino, it's trying to tell you something. Just look at 2009-10, which had a very strong cold signal there in the fall (of 2009). Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That quick warm up in early spring is another parallel to 2009-2010. That one came with a backlash la nina. The 2009-10 strong el nino formed and dissipated quickly, which allowed a transition to a strong la nina. I wonder if the upcoming el nino peaks early and gives way to the development of a strong la nina in 2027-28. If it does, then expect a record warm summer in the East. Backlash la nina years, like 1973, 1988, and 2010, have produced record warm summers at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 8 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yeah, it's time to start paying attention. When there is a cold signal this strong during a robust el nino, it's trying to tell you something. Just look at 2009-10, which had a very strong cold signal there in the fall (of 2009). That one came with a backlash la nina. The 2009-10 strong el nino formed and dissipated quickly, which allowed a transition to a strong la nina. I wonder if the upcoming el nino peaks early and gives way to the development of a strong la nina in 2027-28. If it does, then expect a record warm summer in the East. Backlash la nina years, like 1973, 1988, and 2010, have produced record warm summers at PHL. I would be careful with buying into it full-stock....I feel like these Modoki like solutions are overdoing it in the seasonal mean because they are undergoing the magnitude of the warmer interludes early on. Rather, I interpret those solutions as validation for my conceptualization of how the second half will evolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The westerly QBO and the descending solar are two red flags for that kind of an outcome in the seasonal mean, neither of which were present in 2009....not to mention nearly 20 years of CC. 1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw. 1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 16 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1982-3 and 2015-6 are two super strong ones with both a +QBO and descending solar fwiw. 1957-8 was a super strong with a +QBO and was barely after peak. Yup...which is why they are my two top polar analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 ops for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. So, it is the coldest Feb there since 1978. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Mainly for entertainment: The image below is the TT E US 2m mean of the last 12 CFSv2 for Feb ‘27. It is extremely cold from the C Plains to the SE US with anomalies of -8 to -11 F even vs 1984-2009 climo, which is a bit colder than 1991-2020! It’s just about as cold there as the frigid Febs of 1978, 1958, and 1905 and is a bit colder than Febs of 2015, 2010, 1968, 1963, 1947, and 1902. It isn’t quite as cold as the record coldest, 1895: Cansips not too much different in the Conus really. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: Cansips not too much different in the Conus really. That cold in the high plains is NOT stock El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 I always watch his videos. Very knowledgeable https://youtu.be/DrAPIw8i0iA?is=e1-O1Q_oXIphw5js Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 6 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow? If so, Feb would seem to be the best opportunity per models and analogs with a mild Dec and in between Jan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 8 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does the cold model forecast for this winter jive in any way with Super El Niño? Are there reasons to believe this winter season goes against the grain and produces widespread cold and snow? I don’t believe it. I think there could be some opportunities but otherwise it’s way overdone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 so the CFS basically shoves the eastern Canadian ridge into the Davis Strait, lol it's an unprecedented super Nino but I'll believe that when I see it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: so the CFS basically shoves the eastern Canadian ridge into the Davis Strait, lol it's an unprecedented super Nino but I'll believe that when I see it I think the model is overestimating the NAO: We aren't going to get extreme cold in the east with the N. Pacific looking like that. As bluewave would say, that's 1960s-esq stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Cansips not too much different in the Conus really. CPC disregarding it completely. The CANSIPS has looked like the 2 years in a row, and the last 2 Winters did verify like that. I remember in July last year though it had a 0.0 month lead in the Midwest of -4 to -6 for the month and it ended up being like +2 to +4 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 @40/70 Benchmark@BlizzardWx @bluewave @Ephesians2 Thanks for the informative responses! Your points all make sense and continue to help me learn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 On 8/9/2026 at 8:03 AM, GaWx said: Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days. As expected, today is a +SOI (+2), thus ending the -SOI streak at 91 days. Thus, the 100 day streak of 1998 is safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think the model is overestimating the NAO: We aren't going to get extreme cold in the east with the N. Pacific looking like that. Absolutely....you seem to be on the same page that I am. It's taking a valid element of the coming winter and just amplifying it. Like I said a few posts ago....valid pattern for an interval during the second half, but we aren't going to see that in the seasonal mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: so the CFS basically shoves the eastern Canadian ridge into the Davis Strait, lol it's an unprecedented super Nino but I'll believe that when I see it I don't know if you have a chance to view my polar post a couple of weeks ago, but this is a valid progression during the second half...it's just overdoing it, like Chuck said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 What's up with @snowman19? He get banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What's up with @snowman19? He get banned? Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Traced back to everything I missed early Wednesday on his account Oh, man....looks like he went out in a blaze of infamy. yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 On 8/10/2026 at 4:13 PM, LakePaste25 said: yeah he said he would delete his account. I reached out as a gesture and the message is still unread from last week. Looks like he just peaced-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how to delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 Getting more of an El Nino pattern, N. Pacific low at 216hr. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave. I used to be like that when I was younger. He posts a lot of good stuff, shouldn't take what other people say to heart like that. I personally enjoy reading his stuff, I don't have a Twitter account so it links me to all the ENSO stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 21 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: All things considered, the C3S isn’t terrible. It also tends to be one of the more correct seasonal blends that doesn’t overestimate the cold too much. This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 10 Share Posted August 10 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like he just placed-out.........I remember raindance was vocal about how he couldn't figure out how delete his account last year, so Adam probably encountered the same issues. Hotel Amwx....you can check out anytime you'd like, but you just can't ever leave. I rarely agree with his conclusions, but always read his posts and appreciate the info he posts...even when I wish I didn't read it! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 10 Author Share Posted August 10 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is still another model looking great leading up to a potential Fab Feb. It’s ashamed we can’t see Feb on this run. I'm surprised how bad seasonal models are. They just default to ENSO climo it seems. They were way wrong on +100-120dm Aleutian ridge in the DJF mean the last 2 Winters. 23-24 they were also horrible showing all El Nino stuff. 18-19 Weak El Nino they had opposite US temp anomaly pattern. Sometimes other things besides ENSO have effect, I guess they just can't predict that very well right now. This year is certainly a Winter that could go with something on top of ENSO, given how weak the NPH has responded so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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