2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

September has weak ENSO correlations, historically. It really picks up in October. 

I suppose that will be the question this fall, when this actually happens. It's probably going to be gradual as baroclinity increases, and my guess would be not much change from now until the back half of September. Could be pretty nasty in my area until then if we stay stuck under the heat dome. 

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

The only noticeable thing is the increase in moisture across my region specifically, still not enough to break the drought fully but working on it. The Caribbean has exceptional shear right now which is pretty typical of Nino (they are also below 30N so more in tune with what I had stated in my last post. There is quite an abundance of shear in that region that even areas of the East Pacific are being affected by this from about southern Mexico to Panama. Here are the 500mb patterns for MJJ leading into the strong to super Nino category based on RONI (since this is what we are using now).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

I was reluctant to use 2023-24 since in RONI terms was only a moderate Nino (borderline strong) and comparing it to this year so far. There are some similarities this year to those past years in the southern hemisphere but overall the northern hemisphere seems to be opposite.

Thanks, so_whats_happening !

[PhiEaglesfan712]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?

Some years are missing, like 1995 and 2007. December 1994 and 2006 were very warm (actually the November-January period was near record warm), while February 1995 and 2007 were the outlier cold months.