2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño.

This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this.

So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These  were March 2012 and January 2006.

The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months.

 

DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3

MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5

JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0

FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3

FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6

FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5

JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8

DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2

JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3

FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8

DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8

FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5

DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3

DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1

JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2

FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3

MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time.

There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.

 

 

[GaWx]

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time.

There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.

 

 

Yeah other than that 2 week stretch in late January/early February the cold wasn’t really that impressive. Same with 2024-25. Just normal cold that we used to get much more frequently. The snow was decent though. 

[GaWx]

8/8 12Z CFS: not as strong with none 4+ til Sept 4th:

[Maxim]

13 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

You know, I really don't give a rats arse about the months that produced a +10 in the West, like Dec 2024, or Dec 2025-Feb 2026, especially when it was cold in my area. Plus, there were more months than March 2012 and January 2006 that had +10 departures.

I bet I could find months before January 2006 that had +10 departures. In the East, we had January 1890, 1932-33 (the Dust Bowl years, I'm sure you've heard of that), and 1950.

lol, it’s still summer and the weenies are already starting to lash out. Seethe harder little man, your “colder and snowier” winter which you were wishcasting earlier isn’t happening. The weather and climate don’t revolve around your backyard either.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Maxim said:

lol, it’s still summer and the weenies are already starting to lash out. Seethe harder little man, your “colder and snowier” winter which you were wishcasting earlier isn’t happening. The weather and climate don’t revolve around your backyard either.

You’re attacking someone on the same team as you  PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West.

So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. 

 

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

[BlizzardWx]

IOD and PDO forecast based on the latest seasonal runs. Note my PDO calculation runs higher than other sources. I haven't wired these maps into my website yet but I will post the link if anybody wants it later. 

[raindancewx]

Closest simple match I could get for May-July US precipitation was a blend 1963, 1976, 1997, 2003 as a blend. A lot of years in winter end up coldest where Summer was wettest, 2009-10 was very cold in the East/South following a very wet May-Jul as an example.

Most of the recent Ninos are much better than observed for the past May-July. The SE ridge is essentially displaced v. the blend, so the moisture in the SE has to be shifted to the NW, to include a bit more of the Plains and AZ, with the core dryness also centered somewhat NW of shown.

For highs and rain locally, June 1-Aug 8 is almost identical to a blend of four El Ninos: 1953, 1958, 1994, 2023. Very hot, very dry.

2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 mean high: 94.9. Blend: 94.05F

2026 Jun 1-Aug 8 total rain: 0.80". Blend: 0.73"

Interestingly, that blend is pretty consistently snowy in Nov-Jan locally, and then much more inconsistent Feb-Apr. But February is probably one of the warmest months on record for the US in that blend. 

 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Chris, 1995-1996 was  a perfect storm of a flawless pattern and extraordinary luck.....I get what you are saying about the impact of CC of the size of ridges, but we could get an identical pattern to 1995-1996 100 times over and not come away with record snowfall the length of the east coast. That season was a unicorn. The pattern last year was not as favorable, as not only was the NAO severely negative in the mean owed to the easterly QBO/solar min combo, but the WPO was also strongly negative.  The pattern was simply more favorable that year, even if the ridge sizes were identical. Your point is valid, but that isn't the only reason that we didn't get a repeat of 1995-1996.

The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring.

This time around we got the fastAO/ NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season.

This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold.

It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, Cobalt said:

You’re attacking someone on the same team as you  PhiEaglesfan is always on the warm and snowless train, are you new here?

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, GaWx said:

July OHC of +2.96 set a new record high back to 1979 breaking old record of +2.56 (Oct 1997)!

It just keeps climbing with the record breaking WWBs continuing. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

On 8/7/2026 at 8:27 AM, GaWx said:

 Although the -SOI streak is up to a whopping 89 days and it will reach the low 90s (2nd longest on record back to 1991 by a large margin to early 1998’s 100 days), there’s a good chance it will finally end early next week short of the 100 day record with at least one smallish +SOI as it now appears. Let’s see what actually happens.

 Follow-up: Today’s SOI is -10, which makes the current streak at an amazing 91 days, 2nd only to 1998’s 100 days for longest on record back to 1991. I’m predicting that tomorrow’s will be a +SOI, which would mean the streak ends at 91 days.

[Cobalt]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

I see. Well I appreciate you not adhering to a cookie cutter forecast and applying nuance to this upcoming winter. It's telling that the same people who are excited about the prospect of a warm winter simply because of the reaction of this board were also the ones who went warm for 24-25 and 25-26. 

[LakePaste25]

Is it not reasonable to go warm in the GL/NE for a super Nino? That’s common knowledge. It will be above normal in the mean. Sure we can discuss how it might not be an all out torch (and I think it can be prevented given that we might shut down MC convection), but above normal is an easy call.  

[bncho]

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

[Jebman]

14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm not on any train. I actually think this upcoming winter will be snowier and colder than most people think. I bet it isn't warmer than 94-95 in the Eastern US.

Because this record Nino is so far east-based, I have a sneaking suspicion that it is going to be the southeastern US with ridiculous amounts of rain, while southwestern communities such as those in Texas will only be slightly above normal. There are always unpleasant truths in all our lives, and in my life that unpleasant truth is that all my falls, winters and springs shall be pretty dry and rain-free. Even in a 1000-year Nino.

But look out if you live in a place like Atlanta. They might get 130 inches of rain by March 2027.

Philadelphia will probably get hit by record amounts of snow this winter! This will be YOUR winter, PhiEaglesfan!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The main reason the pattern was more favorable in 1995-1996 was the much more extensive and longer duration cold into April. Plus the -NAO patterns were able to lock in during those days from the late fall into the spring.

This time around we got the fastAO/ NAO reversal in March shutting off the snows. No doubt 2025-2026 was the very best winter of the 2020s. So it’s good to know that we at least were able to get a weaker reflection of that season.

This was the first time that a weak La Niña with the 3 ridge pattern over the Bering, Baja, and Greenland occurred in 30 years. But the ridges were much stronger limiting the cold.

It also took two seasons following that one for a super El Niño to develop. This time the super El Niño was instantaneous right after the winter.

 

 

NAO and WPO were much more favorable....I feel like the WPO helped to limit major precipitation events on the east coast last year. I know it looks very negative in the seasonal composite, but it was a bootleg WPO and was actually positive in the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

Sure, but ask yourself which season was better suited for that to actually occur than this one?

[Ephesians2]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

2024 was too weak to overcome the nina/-PDO base state. my gut feeling is warm too, but not in the way 2024 was, when we had almost a nina-like pacific pattern. that winter wasn't that wet in the MA/SE either.

[GaWx]

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

[BlizzardWx]

7 hours ago, bncho said:

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

There are things that matter for seasonal forecasts that models can see many months in advance, but there are also things that either they simply cannot see or are more regional/shorter temporally and so the forecasts won't see them for several months.

As an example, and my memory is fuzzy, but there was a paper I believe that at least implied that the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of 2013-2015 was substantially driven by the existing land/surface state (i.e. self reinforcing). And it's not like that is a novel concept, but the question is, what can these climate models realistically know about? I suspect a lot of these more nuanced land/sea configuration states do not reach the model forecast. What does that leave you? It leaves you where I started, with the things the model can see.

I have no doubt that in the absence of other forcings the canonical El Nino forecast is what you would get every time. It is then our job as forecasters to determine what else is going to matter to modify or shift that enso signal. Forecasters like 40/70 Benchmark do a good job at this and consider the kaleidoscope of forcings to try to arrive at what may actually happen. But as he already noted, you will never have stronger enso forcing than this, so its reasonable to assume we end up closer to "climatology" than normal...whatever that is for a roided out Nino like this one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

That doesn't look like prohibitive warmth in SNE, either....like 2004-2005 warmth probably. ... +1-+3F. Give me that all day long if it comes with tons of moisture....I'll take that over last year in a heartbeat. 

2004-2005 was slightly above average in terms of temps, but only 1995 and 2014 saw higher total seasonal snowfall IMBY.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

That CFS plot looks like 2009-2010 IMO.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, bncho said:

Not to be a downer or anything but is it possible/likely that the models that show the favorable Feb/Mar pattern are just falling back on what a normal El Niño would generally do? This is not a normal El Niño. I think @bluewave has touched on this in seasons past about how seasonal models are susceptible to this? Just worried for something like Feb 2024 to happen.

Seasonal model forecasts for super El Niños usually have warmer temperatures across Canada and the Northern tier states into the Northeast. So in that general sense they usually end up correct. But they haven’t been correct with the magnitude of the warmth.

Spots that wound up with +10 or more months have only been forecast to be something like +1 to 3 or maybe +2 to +4. Plus each of the 3 super El Niños since the late 90s had other variations in regard to where the ridge axis was located vs forecast.

1997-1998 was our only east based event of that era with a strong +PDO and no Maritime Continent forcing. But it started out cooler in the East during December and got progressively warmer during January and February. So it didn’t follow the general El Niño progression. It also had a strong -AO in January that linked up with the Southeast ridge even with such a strong STJ.

The models had the stock El Niño composite for December 2015 as late as November 2023 with warmer north and cooler south. We wound up with the warmest December on record in the East greater than +13 in spots which were forecast to be something like +1 to +3. Strong +PDO that winter and a Maritime Cintinent influence in December

2023-2024 was forecast to be only something like +1 to 3 for places  which verified more than +10. The event  had a -PDO with Maritime Continent influence.

This event is stronger than all three of those events. So the models probably won’t start showing the actual December pattern until into the first week of December. The January pattern probably won’t begin to show up until closer to New Years. And the actual February pattern until that month starts also.

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

Glad you posted it and not me! Lol

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

Looking at the Cfs2 past March, it warms up North America pretty fast getting you to this early forecast for May. So the relative extreme heat from this Niño does get distributed thru the conus/planet, but not until late spring into summer and beyond. Just a thought.

[GaWx]

 Yesterday’s NOAA weekly release for relative 3.4 came in at +1.8, which is the warmest early August on record back to 1982:
 

29JUL2026         3.2        2.1        1.5        0.2

05AUG2026        3.3        2.4        1.8        0.3

 ————————

How does this compare to 1997?

06AUG1997         3.9        2.3        1.6        0.3

——————

How does this +1.8 for 3.4 compare to others for weeks centered near August 5th?

2026 +1.8

2023 +0.4

2015 +1.1

2012 +0.7

2009 +0.4

2006 +0.2

2004 +0.7

2002 +0.7

1997 +1.6

1994 +0.8

1993 +0.4

1991  +0.7

1990 +0.4

1987 +1.2

1986 +0.3

1982 +1.0

 

 The earliest any of these reached +1.8 is August 20, 1997.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Seasonal model forecasts for super El Niños usually have warmer temperatures across Canada and the Northern tier states into the Northeast. So in that general sense they usually end up correct. But they haven’t been correct with the magnitude of the warmth.

Spots that wound up with +10 or more months have only been forecast to be something like +1 to 3 or maybe +2 to +4. Plus each of the 3 super El Niños since the late 90s had other variations in regard to where the ridge axis was located vs forecast.

1997-1998 was our only east based event of that era with a strong +PDO and no Maritime Continent forcing. But it started out cooler in the East during December and got progressively warmer during January and February. So it didn’t follow the general El Niño progression. It also had a strong -AO in January that linked up with the Southeast ridge even with such a strong STJ.

The models had the stock El Niño composite for December 2015 as late as November 2023 with warmer north and cooler south. We wound up with the warmest December on record in the East greater than +13 in spots which were forecast to be something like +1 to +3. Strong +PDO that winter and a Maritime Cintinent influence in December

2023-2024 was forecast to be only something like +1 to 3 for places  which verified more than +10. The event  had a -PDO with Maritime Continent influence.

This event is stronger than all three of those events. So the models probably won’t start showing the actual December pattern until into the first week of December. The January pattern probably won’t begin to show up until closer to New Years. And the actual February pattern until that month starts also.

 

 

 

 

1997 was easterly QBO/Low-ascending solar, so it isn't that surprising that the polar domain was more disturbed early on.