2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is

I gave that up in March.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 
 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

Nino Getting a lower end super El and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era. 

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

[LakePaste25]

I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I get the reluctance for some to take a “wait and see” approach to see if the NH actually couples. But at the same time, just make a call. I think it’ll couple, and couple well. Sure, we can count on a less expansive area of below normal anomalies than the 1983 Aleutian Low due to warming. It is what it is. But otherwise it’ll couple in the NH and if i’m wrong i’m wrong. 

I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking through that door.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What a time to be alive. And if this leads to a historic, record breaking Super La Nina, I'm even more all in.

The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998.

That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027.

Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.

[LakePaste25]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it's late at this point....my hedge was that it will certainly couple more than 2023, perhaps along the lines of 2015, but I still doubt whether 1997 is walking threw that door.

My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

My thing is, if the most record breaking El Niño of my life (and potentially by a huge margin) doesn’t do the job, then the climate system has been messed up to the point where we’ve lost a major predictability factor in ENSO. It’s possible. But I hope not. 

Yes, we will learn a lot this year...the earth wants ENSO to couple with the mid latitudes because it's that coupling that represents the most proficient avenue for the redistribution of all of that heat...this unprecedented ENSO is the planet's best attempt at bridging that gap in the face of mounting anthropogenic resistance. 

The only entity that desires the eradication of the west warm pool more than east coast snow enthusiasts is mother nature.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this is why I was originally reluctant to accept the super-idea...but when I did my deep dive on the polar considerations a couple of weeks ago, I really considered everything from a solar perspective and it's really the 2023-2024 strong event that was the outlier....not this event. That is the one that "didn't fit".

The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at.

The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new.

Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past. 

[michsnowfreak]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is there anyone left debating the super Nino outcome? It already is

I gave that up in March.

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah I was initially thinking “We just had a super Nino 3 years ago, it won’t happen again”…. But then I looked at the subsurface and saw it was near +2 in early spring. 2023-2024 was kind of a weird year, I initially thought warm and snowless because the Nino was too strong, but then looking back this year when I was digging though previous super ninos to prepare for this winter, I realized I was kind of right by luck, and missed the bigger picture. Bluewave had a really good handle on what was going on that year, he basically argued we would see both Nino and Nina like influences that would combine to produce an especially shitty winter in the east, and ended up nailing it. 

I keep circling back to the PMM. 2023-24 was a rare -PMM El Niño. Right now it’s positive.

In the summer, -PMM constructively interferes with El Nino, while it destructively interferes during the winter. +PMM is the opposite (Nina like summer, but Nino like winter). Unfortunately we don’t have current PMM values but eyeballing SSTAs show it in the positive state, which implies more Nino-friendly interference as we head towards winter. 

 

[FPizz]

28 minutes ago, TriPol said:

We are witnessing and tracking something no other living human being has ever seen before... it's amazing.

Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it. 

[LakePaste25]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at.

The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new.

Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past. 

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yes, living humans haven't seen this (I'm sure dead ones have though at some point) and I'm sure 99.99% wouldn't even know it is happening since pretty much nothing in their life is going to change over the next 10 months because of it. Many alive today will have lived through the stongest La Nina and El Nino ever, and not even know. Pretty funny really when you think about it. 

I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

I think it's much more for the east coast than your area, but def. get the point.

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I really dont think so. There hasnt been any debate for months. 

I think some confuse the weather with enso. Any discussion of the wintry potential this coming winter and the same few act like its disrespecting super nino as if its their child. Its bizarre really.

I really dont care how historic an el nino (or any other enso is). Hell i dont care if el nino peaks at +7...I care about the weather imby/region. And at this point I see absolutely nothing that points to a historic warm, snowless winter here...and certainly nothing pointing to a harsh winter either. So in the end, no matter how historic the nino is, the sensible weather of winter will be what i will remember (or choose to forget lol).

I wouldn’t dare predict a snowless winter. There’s no data to back that up. But I would place heavy bets on +3 or higher in terms of temp departures in the mean, locally. 

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think some people know how hot its been and that there's an El Nino and correlate with global warming. That's about as far as it goes.

Probably.  They might hear it on the news or see a headline, but overall I think us here are the only ones that care. The other 99% want to know why their App says 50% chance of rain today and it is sunny, lol.  If I had a dime for every time someone brings up their hour by hour weather app...:D

[mitchnick]

Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ.

[mitchnick]

5H is better this run too. DJF is looking a lot like Cfs2. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro seasonal a little cooler in the MA and SE. This is for the NDJ period. Can't compare DJF because July's forecast ends at NDJ.

Here's the August DJF temp forecast. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer. 
 

 

 Even the Euro’s 3.4 RONI peaks at ~+3.4 in Nov, which would obliterate the current record of +2.5 set Jan 1982!

Note that in switching from ERSST version 5 to 6, the record warmest has dropped at it had been +2.7 based on ERSST version 5.
 
 This prog is slightly warmer than the peaks of +3.3 on the prior run (July) and +3.2 on the June run:

 

8/2/26 3.4 RONI peak ~+3.4 in Nov:

[mitchnick]

Some WB maps at this post.

 

[GaWx]

OHC is still rising and is now at insanely high levels (>+3), especially for early August! @snowman19

[PhiEaglesfan712]

42 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I will place a heavy bet that Nino 1+2 will once again, not cool off as we head into next spring. This is why I don’t yet think we swing back to a major La Niña. Cold neutral is once again on the table next year. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

[LakePaste25]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Some WB maps at this post.

 

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we had a carry over el nino, like 87-88, in 27-28. But it's going to end early, and we're going to get a head start to a strong la nina like in 88-89, in 28-29. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but a very strong one. We'll get the 3rd el nino in the early 2030's, like 91-92 (but probably not with a major volcano).

That one may have 2009-2010 like potential as we near solar min and potentially continue to relax the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

It's probably due to the anti-2023 effect, which demonstrated that weaker doesn't necessarily mean colder. Guidance is probably picking up on the reduced MC competition, thus the less inhibited se CONUS trough expression.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

While I may not agree with the Euro verbatim, it’s a perfect example of how a stronger Nino doesn’t always mean warmer. The August update increased the strength but went cooler. 

Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler.  

 

 

Verification in °C