OSUmetstud Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The main difference is that NOAAs RONI reduction is larger. The raw weekly anomaly is 2.3. They subtracted 0.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 Roundy mentioned some issues with this method that sort of make sense to me. Im paraphrasing of course but its like youre punishing the el nino thats partially responsible for the increase of SSTs in the 20S-N band in the first place. There may be better ways to normalize the agw signal in the calculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The main difference is that NOAAs RONI reduction is larger. The raw weekly anomaly is 2.3. They subtracted 0.8. But why are they subtracting so much for the RONI deduction? It was only 0.44 for June ONI minus RONI. A sudden sharp increase from 0.44 to 0.8 is inconsistent with the size of month to month changes of the difference in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Roundy mentioned some issues with this method that sort of make sense to me. Im paraphrasing of course but its like youre punishing the el nino thats partially responsible for the increase of SSTs in the 20S-N band in the first place. There may be better ways to normalize the agw signal in the calculation. To be fair, the ONI is actually being punished here because of how fast the W Pacific has been warming. So for the purposes of trying to determine the extent of suppressed convection in the MC/W Pac and enhanced convection near the dateline into the E pac, RONI seems to be useful here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 July 2026 PDO: -2.03 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 From that same pro-met, the strong support for a solid La Niña by next fall is there. This is just for ASO: If you look at RONI values that exceeded 1.0 in ASO, the higher end events almost always resulted in La Nina by the next year's ASO:1957: 1.2 -> 0.21963: 1.0 -> -0.61965: 1.9 -> 0.01972: 1.7 -> -1.51982: 1.8 -> -0.61987: 1.5 -> -1.41994: 1.0 -> -0.71997: 2.3 -> -1.52002: 1.3 -> 0.22015: 1.9 -> -1.12023: 1.1 -> -0.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable. I think the 12-rack you consumed for breakfast deconstructively interfered with your thought process. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, LakePaste25 said: It interferes by *weakening* the SE trough and making it *even warmer* meanwhile a 97-98 type pattern increases the chances of a big snowstorm via the active southern stream. That winter came very close to multiple KUs that barely missed the cold air phase. 82-83/15-16 produced one and had +PDOs as well. In my several years of tracking weather it has always been preferable to have a +PDO and is backed up by evidence. “-PDO means less el niño so it’s snowier” is such a wrong way to view it. You *always* want a +PDO in the East, and hopefully it flips and we get that! Yea, basically a -PDO negatively interferes with every element of El Nino that is favorable from the perspective of an east coast winter enthusiast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: July 2026 PDO: -2.03 I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 What’s weird is that NOAA July PDO of -1.29 isn’t as negative as NOAA June of -1.32 despite the big plunge on WCS in July!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, GaWx said: But why are they subtracting so much for the RONI deduction? It was only 0.44 for June ONI minus RONI. A sudden sharp increase from 0.44 to 0.8 is inconsistent with the size of month to month changes of the difference in the past. I believe because the nino itself is increasing the 20N-20S SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The June monthly OISST data was actually adjusted by 0.51. (1.55 v 1.04). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, GaWx said: I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. lol, they must have changed it. The original value there was -2.03 a few hours earlier. I guess they put the WCS value. But now we know there is about a .75 difference between the NOAA and WCS in July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I can’t get over how CFS is just absolutely bonkers with how extremely east based it models the Nino. Convection/Hadley cell is so far east that the SE canada/NE US ridge backdoors itself into a -NAO. Likely overdoing it and we probably see something east of CANSIPs but west of the CFS, but it’s interesting to see the patterns that it is spitting out. Very possible this ends up being the most east-based El Niño in observed history. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market. This feels like going up on a strong bull market. It feels like we're setting new records every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 3 Author Share Posted August 3 JJA ONI record since 1950 is +1.6c (centered around July 15) JAS ONI record since 1950 is +1.9c (centered around Aug 15) We are currently nearing +2.1c.. strongest on record for this date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the 12-rack you consumed for breakfast deconstructively interfered with your thought process. Well you're not getting a +PDO so I guess we'll all be tanning in mid January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 The H300 PDO or upper air PDO index came in at -2.03 for July. The last time this index was positive at all was 2015-16. The last time it was +1 or greater was 1997-98. 2026 1 -1.61 2026 2 -1.58 2026 3 -1.73 2026 4 -1.70 2026 5 -1.93 2026 6 -2.05 2026 7 -2.03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Well you're not getting a +PDO so I guess we'll all be tanning in mid January I think it will end up near neutral....either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 3 Share Posted August 3 I’m thinking weak to moderate positive (+.5 to +1.5) peak before it dips negative later next summer and probably doesn’t flip back to long term positive until the 2030s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 WWBs for days Very strong coupling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 This is why region 1+2 is an inferno (+4C) besides the WWBs and DWKWs…the South Pacific High (Anticyclone) has totally collapsed Also, region 3 has gone up an entire degree (up to over +3C) in one month. Crazy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 I have a question: If this record Nino goes very very very very very far east-based, does this mean places far west like Texas will end up missing out of some or most of the rain? Someone in an earlier post stated the Nino will be extremely far east-based, and the convection will follow it OUCH! That, does not sound very good for all of us DRY PARCHED TEXANS. Man that would be a massive BUMMER. Because I crave floods Floods FLOODS FLOODS!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 14 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: July 2026 PDO: -2.03 13 hours ago, GaWx said: I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb. There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one shows -1.29 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat This one labels it as -2.03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one shows -1.29 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat This one labels it as -2.03 Based solely on the url, it looks like v5 (version 5?) is the lower number and v6 (version 6?) is the higher number. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 This thermocline is ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: There seem to be 2 different sites for the PDO. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat This one shows -1.29 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat This one labels it as -2.03 This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the one that I use, as I have found that the other reading hasn't accurately depicted the severity of this Pacific cold phase throughout the 2020's. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ That’s the link I’ve been going to also. That’s because whenever I google NOAA PDO or PDO NOAA, it takes me there. (I don’t have it saved as a bookmark.) But the server has been N/A much of the time since yesterday for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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