2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[GaWx]

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

[George001]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Super, east-based El Niño (strongest in history) along with a +QBO and we have the usual weenie accounts on social media hyping a very cold winter 

@forkyfork

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Imo the following winter is the one to watch for northern areas, not this upcoming one. I don’t see the roaring STJ dying off quickly especially if the El Niño lingers into the spring before collapsing into La Niña. When you combine the lingering STJ with a La Niña, big things can happen for northern areas. When it comes to sustained cold in an El Niño this powerful, I need to see it to believe it. Historical precedence for these super ninos is a warm east. 

I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. 

[LakePaste25]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 

 

[snowman19]

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 
 

Classic El Niño forcing is taking over the Northern Hemisphere.



++GLAAM

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere". 

 

[LakePaste25]

12 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere". 

 

I think he’s referring to the GLAAM. Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño. 

[EasternLI]

11 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

N Pac finally waking up to El Niño? This is what you’d expect in the warm season (weak Aleutian Low that slowly deepens). 

 

 

Yeah noticed that too, near mid August is the target date to me for maybe something like that to start to show up. AI-ENS on board too and has been. Didn't really look like the standard EPS was as interested as that yesterday. Maybe that idea is starting to gain a little traction. 

 

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. 

Do you mean El Niño possibly carrying over like 1957-8/1958-9? That’s the closest I could find followed perhaps by 1940-1/1941-2.

[LakePaste25]

4 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

Yeah noticed that too, near mid August is the target date to me for maybe something like that to start to show up. AI-ENS on board too and has been. Didn't really look like the standard EPS was as interested as that yesterday. Maybe that idea is starting to gain a little traction. 

 

Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September. 

[EasternLI]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

Part of this is because these ensembles are not very good at spotting troughs in the summer. They tend to over smooth. I think the N Pac will begin to organize by late August/early September. 

Oh absolutely. And feel the same way about the Pacific timing, I agree.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

27 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Nonetheless, I’m sure I’ll wake up to another 10 posts here tomorrow about how it’s 5 degrees in longitude off from some height anomaly map from a century ago so it’s not el niño. 

Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm. 

[roardog]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If some people are actually arguing that the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere are going to somehow magically stay in a La Niña state with a raging super El Niño in place this fall and winter then I have no words. I think (hope), that’s not what some are forecasting, since it would completely defy the laws of physics and reality

I think some people are just skeptical because the PDO is so outrageously negative for what is already a super Nino. I know it's still summer but this persistent very -PDO almost defies those same laws of physics and reality you talk about.

[TheDreamTraveler]

8 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Here's your 4 analogs 72-73,82-83,97-98 and 15-16..all had above normal temps..72-73 and 97-98 was virtually a shutout..82-83 and 15-16 had a historic blizzard. That's a good rundown of what you might expect.

The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.

[so_whats_happening]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

Truly a great retention year all things considered. Low starting point was unfortunately the worst thing to happen. I do however worry as we go into spring/summer of next year after the heat release from this ENSO event unfolds but will have to wait and see how things evolve.

[so_whats_happening]

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If some people are actually arguing that the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere are going to somehow magically stay in a La Niña state with a raging super El Niño in place this fall and winter then I have no words. I think (hope), that’s not what some are forecasting, since it would completely defy the laws of physics and reality

Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

28 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east. 

[chris21]

12 hours ago, George001 said:

Super El Niño is bad for sustained cold, it isn’t necessarily bad for snow. For say NYC and SE you guys I think could actually do well snow wise because all it takes is one big storm to get you over your seasonal snow totals. I would also think the storm track with the active super Nino driven STJ could be good for the mid Atlantic. Super Nino is bad for coastal SNE and ski areas for 2 reasons however:

1. More of our snow consists of nickel and dime events than huge storms, so the super Nino tradeoff (warmer overall, very few nickle and dime events, elevated risk of huge storms) hits northern areas harder. This is the bigger issue for ski areas, as well as the worse snow retention due to it being milder overall.

2. The active southern jet doesn’t necessarily push storms up the coast if the “big one” does hit , often they slide out after hitting the mid Atlantic rather than coming up (see Jan 2016), and when they do come up they tend to run inland a bit and bring in warmer air, bringing rain to coastal New England. This is the bigger issue for areas like Boston, the juiced up Miller A track often isn’t great here. We tend to do better with Miller Bs and SWFE events. 

I’m not optimistic for my area and the ski areas, but in NYC and the mid atlantic I don’t think how things are developing is necessarily bad in terms of snow prospects. 

It’s been amazing for southern Appalachian ski resorts but further north it’s garbage. Most resorts… Beech, Snowshoe, Sugar easily eclipsed 100 inches. Mt. Mitchell had 170 inches of snow.

[so_whats_happening]

34 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east. 

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. 

Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.

Dale City got 27 inches of snow from GB16 (The Great Blizzard of 2016). Back in those days I could still dig snow. I ended up digging lots of people out. Many of my neighbors asked me to, several of them remarked about how I wanted all the snow and one even asked for Jebman Standards lmao.

[snowman19]

The EPAC hurricane season off to a big start too with lots more to come
 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east. 

People forget that our coldest winter CONUS in the 21st century happened during a strong el nino.

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The hot summer of 1991 was an exception.

July 1991 actually had a cooler El Niño-like -0.52 pattern across the CONUS compared to the record warmth this July at +2.4.

July 1991

73.87°F

-0.52°F

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social

· 1d

It's going to be a close call, but it now appears more likely than not that July 2026 will be the warmest month on record in the Contiguous U.S. As of today, we are essentially tied with July 1936 and July 2012.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I truly would laugh so hard if we end up getting a solid winter out of this event just so I can stop seeing the repetitive posts on here.

I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The 2015-2016 winter was absurdly unremarkable except for that monster blizzard. I almost got my entire seasons worth of snow just from that one storm alone. Otherwise it barely snowed at all.

The arctic outbreak INVO VD Day was pretty remarkable.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

July 1991 actually had a cooler El Niño-like -0.52 pattern across the CONUS compared to the record warmth this July at +2.4.

July 1991

73.87°F

-0.52°F

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social

· 1d

It's going to be a close call, but it now appears more likely than not that July 2026 will be the warmest month on record in the Contiguous U.S. As of today, we are essentially tied with July 1936 and July 2012.

 

 

 

 Chris, my point is that the summer of 1991 didn’t follow the pattern of the mean of the other 5 as it was net warmer than normal in the E 1/2 of the Conus vs it being colder than normal for the other 5 years averaged out:

 

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't because I think it will be solid.

I buy that for the mid atlantic but even up here? I’m concerned it will be too warm for sustained winter and we aren’t going to get the nickle and dime events we normally get.

[LakePaste25]

CANSIPS now getting close to a +4C ONI peak…

 

[GaWx]

 1. The July SOI comes in way down at -26.8,  by far the lowest July SOI on record. The only lower ones during met. summer were the -27.7 in June of 1905 and the -27.0 in June of 1896, both incoming El Niños.

2. This brings us to 82 straight days of -SOI. Going back to when records are readily available (since 1991), this is second only to the 100 days of 1998! It’s too early to tell whether or not the current streak will reach 100 days.