Nomz Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges. no JMA? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: There’s always a northern band! Preparing to get hosed in DC, but that’s fine, I guess. Likely not missing much Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: You really could live your life only looking at the Euro & EPS and be pretty satisfied. Throw in the HRRR and the 3k in the really short and short ranges. Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Game ended and walked out into (would you believe it) more light rain. I think it’s snowing up on Shenandoah though! Good win at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lolMaybe 6? It’s really better for severe. Winter definitely isn’t its place, imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Good job @WxUSAF 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Serious question… With the HRRR how many hours out do you think we're safe where it's pretty good? I'm trying to broaden my horizons lol HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66, but not looking likely at this point. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 We suck. Edit: I’m chasing wind and more flurries for Friday/Saturday now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Good win at least! Switched to light snow as I went from the JPJ lowlands to my dorm back at 600ft plus. Super elevation dependent or just convenient timing who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66, but not looking likely at this point. VERY well stated. The HRRR is generally pretty good with warm season convection (minus some flaws and the inherent challenges with modeling weakly-forced storms) but has never proven itself as a winter weather model. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: HRRR is best when it's inside 8 hrs, but can more useful up to 12 hrs if it is assimilating the data correctly. It has its struggles with certain setups and is best within convective environments or well-established thermal environments. Winter is not its strong suit, but can be useful at times. Right now, regional CAMs are better at handling this type of setup. Best ascent has been modeled south through the day, but some very light precip is still plausible north of I-66, but not looking likely at this point. Re: assimilating data correctly Completely unrelated, but it should show how important proper initialization is. Before June 20th (Enderlin EF5 day), most models were very consistent in showing zero prefrontal development in the potent warm sector due to very warm 700mb temperatures. However, the night before, the HRRR was the only one consistently initializing temps. Other models were running 1-2 °C too warm, which obviously led to incorrectly choking out prefrontal development. Because the HRRR was correctly initializing cooler, it was consistently showing robust prefrontal development ~18 hours pre-event, while it took the other models till mere hours before to start showing prefrontal development. If you follow svwx you know what happened later that day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Nothing here Temps rise to 31 Pre treatment rds waste Need the rain next weekend to wash this crap off the rds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Great event got nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Officially a Trace on the snowboard, with 0.01” in the gauge. Day 11 of snow depth, which is currently at 3.3” and still hasn’t moved much, despite being above freezing the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I went outside at 11 and the sky was almost clear lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 WTF? Radar actually looked like a lock over Calvert last night when I turned out the lights, the precip was almost over us. Woke up this morning...nothing. This thread sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Currently sunny out, when does my snow start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 This was the worst thread in all the years I've been here lol. Someone delete this pos please lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, dailylurker said: This was the worst thread in all the years I've been here lol. Someone delete this pos please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Just now, WxUSAF said: Sorry your name was involved lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A VERY light snow was falling at 7 am this morning with quite foggy conditions. I had a massive 0.3" on the board and open areas (driveway/sidewalks), but 0.5" on the old snow? Anyway, stuck with the board. Trees are pretty with the snow hanging on them. It was 31.5/29.6 at 7 am, now 31.8/30.0 at 8:30 am with just some fog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 minutes ago, dailylurker said: This was the worst thread in all the years I've been here lol. Someone delete this pos please lol Nah, it was fun! Ton of laughs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 So it rained some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 At least it was cloudy. At night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I swear if Norrisville reports a dusting I’m gonna lose my mind 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, mappy said: I swear if Norrisville reports a dusting I’m gonna lose my mind You know better than that, it'll be 0.2"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: You know better than that, it'll be 0.2"! I looked at cocorahs and looks like they reported snow at 11pm last night. I was still awake and it was not snowing at my house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 We had some very light snow around midnight. The slightest of dustings on the car this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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