Is we back? February discussion thread

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I think we have plenty more snowfall to go. I have never bought the early-ending banter for a moment, although I see the argument.

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. 

As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. 

But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. 

As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. 

But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow. 

People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. 
 

They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. 
 

Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system. 

What are the mild days.. Mon/ Turs?

[SouthCoastMA]

qc schmegma said winter was over yesterday. 

euro/gfs/AIs all looking good

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are the mild days.. Mon/ Turs?

Tuesday looks warmest. 45 with some spots maybe near 50

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. 
 

They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. 
 

Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months. 

I'd take that over 24/5 just because it's nicer feeling and living in that...    pretty simple.  lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. 

As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. 

But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow. 

Yea, the extreme cold is done....March 2018 wasn't that cold.

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. 
 

They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. 
 

Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months. 

 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

Call BS on Norwood, always warm in summer and too cold in winter. Only 18F here in the valley.

It's a weird spot. Essentially sea level. 

 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

It's a weird spot. Essentially sea level. 

 

I think its similar to how MVY is..low lying surrounded by higher elevation. Might be the definition of fake cold but legit

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s do 6z gfs 

Will probably end up as mix here in SW CT. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

So 8 days to get from 3 to 6. Can we get to 8 by the 8th of March for one last snow window?

 

[mreaves]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I remember NNE doing well in the limited times I went up there. And then I remember hearing about the random biggies the Cape got and down toward the mid Atlantic. 

I think 81-82 might be the best winter I clearly remember.  We seemed to get a couple of small snowfalls a week punctuated by somewhat regular larger storms.  At one point, our nearly 4' tall electric fence was buried.  

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a warm index period, yet the dailies/oper model cinemas are low balling on that potential.

The main reason this takes place is to annoy me... Winter enthusiasts don't realize what is happening, they just assume the world is the way it should be. 

I'm neurotic about that. LOL.  I don't like it when the idiosyncratic vagaries of wind and weather patterns placate and even enable one side, in general - cold or hot.  But the reality is that index modes just mean favored regimes. It's a matter of how much or how little.  There is variance within those regimes.

Anyway, here on Earth... in this case, the pattern is acting like a -NAO without actually having a block.  One does eventually formulate up there - as usual, inconsistently in both time and space by the guidance'.  But these systems running along a pinned polar boundary late next week ( it's a mixy storm signal that's been there for several days actually...), are acting like the block is there whether it is actually manifested or not.   That behavior is the non-linearity of forcing. In wave mechanics, fields interact in both linear and non-linearity.  The linear is what you see; the non-linear dictates where waves amplify verse damp out, emerge and decay. That's what exposes the non-linear field

Another way to think of the non-linear relationship, the PNA in fact is positively correlated to the NAO.  SO, -PNA statistically wants to manifest a -NAO... it seems the physics of the models are exposing that relationship, whether it shows up in the linear structures (those that are readily observed).

 

[wx2fish]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. 

As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. 

But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow. 

Next week seems to be trending cooler outside of a couple mildish days. But to your point, late Feb 2018 hit 75F+, then look what happened in March. 

[mahk_webstah]

39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system. 

Yes, it looks like we go on another run starting sometime later next week. If it plays out well, the snow pack could be pretty crazy up here. We’re around 2 feet right now and I don’t think we’re gonna lose that much given the cold nights, so we’ll probably have 18 to 20 when it starts piling back on top.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Trying to scratch and claw my way towards climo snowfall.  I need  around 10" to get there.  

I feel like this has been so difficult even in the slightly better winters. I'm still optimistic we will get there. I just wonder if the long-term average is really closer to low to mid 40s rather than 50 inches.

[WinterLand]

Got this from @growingwisdom on twitter. What I find most interesting besides being the coldest 75 day start to winter in Boston since 93-94 is it’s colder than every 80s winter besides 81 and on par with 82.  
I thought the 80s were much colder, I have no recollection as I was born in 85. 

1918...yikes! That must have been absolutely brutal.


.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

Next week seems to be trending cooler outside of a couple mildish days. But to your point, late Feb 2018 hit 75F+, then look what happened in March. 

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr early big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interestingly increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. 

Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons.  Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets.  Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm' one late afternoon. An innocuous event to serve as warning.  But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. 

Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might just correlate rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking.  Like think of it as a total event that is warm presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence.

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the extreme cold is done....March 2018 wasn't that cold.

 

I don't have that confidence. So much snow around. Arctic invasion with TPV seems likely. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Next week seems to be trending cooler outside of a couple mildish days. But to your point, late Feb 2018 hit 75F+, then look what happened in March. 

Yup...once you get into about mid February through mid March the swings can be pretty enormous. It's unlikely any one pattern regime truly dominates for more than several days just because of the changes which are going on within the hemisphere. 

In terms of temperatures and next week, I think its a very difficult signal. I think overall, the AO/NAO/PNA structure point towards more average to slightly above average...but that isn't a bad thing when talking about the potential for an increasingly active pattern. Some of our best snows and stretches come in that sort of regime. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't have that confidence. So much snow around. Arctic invasion with TPV seems likely. 

That would absolutely be a wild card but I think its more likely the TPV is going to end up on the other side of the hemisphere 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've personally found that those Feb and Mar and even Apr big heat bombs that took place since 2016 with interesting increased frequency (a separate climate discussion), seemed to be prologue to a negative NAO over the western limb of the index. 

Random memory while on the subject... This also took place in October of 2011, with a mid month 4-day static period of 75ish afternoons, even crispy CU towers sometimes on the sunset horizons.  Then, in the 20+s of that month, the the western NAO plummets.  Few might remember, but we actually flipped to noodles about 3 or 4 days prior to that big late month 'Halloween snow storm'. An innocuous warning event.  But it was all part of that same circuitry getting going. 

Anyway, point being ... there may be something to that statistically, where warm ups that are above a SD threshold might correlated rather highly, as a prelude, to a period of higher latitude blocking.  Like might be a total event that is heat presaging high latitude block in a kind of super synoptic sequence of events.

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. 

This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense 

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

qc schmegma said winter was over yesterday. 

euro/gfs/AIs all looking good

And that’s why that duef is 5 posted. Nothing but absolute nonsense constantly…nothing but worthless posts. 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will probably end up as mix here in SW CT. 

C’mon now…don’t be a TBlizz.  One is enough. Good look starting late next week and beyond. We take and grab whatever we can. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 5, 1981 was a mini Feb 1969.

Ya that December 81 was a nothing burger here. 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. 

This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense 

More a social commentary here ...

First of all ... no one should take advice off anyone from a social media source. To point out the obvious, it's no different than subjecting one's self to bus-stop factoids among strangers.  Unless one really really knows that source. Like really knows, not because they think they know, but really do. In which case, your proooobably not reading their advice off a social media realm in the first place. hahaha   No but what you can do, if you hear or read something that sounds cogent, use that as a step stone in research to go look the shit up yourself and see if its real.   This latter tact seldom appears to concern those that frequent this source - that's sort of what I mean by not taking it seriously. 

Or maybe it is just lazy.  Maybe it is just capacity to understand.  Maybe compos mentis...  Who knows for certain. Being the cynic that I am (perhaps even recreationally LOL) I think it's because people don't want to admit when one person or source is right - particularly ( in here..) when that right sounding advice or observation or whatever tact, cancels their joy.   Folks are not in here ( probably neglecting what they're supposed to be doing, much of the time - ) to engage so much in objective lucidity.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Tuesday looks warmest. 45 with some spots maybe near 50

Hopefully leaves everyone with pack 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully leaves everyone with pack 

Outside of those that get a lot of direct sun, I don’t see the pack going anywhere really. Just a slow gentle melt outside the sunny spots.

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, WinterLand said:

1918...yikes! That must have been absolutely brutal.


.

That was wire to wire frigid.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Outside of those that get a lot of direct sun, I don’t see the pack going anywhere really. Just a slow gentle melt outside the sunny spots.

agreed ...too cold for big dawg melt back.