Is we back? February discussion thread

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, ma blizzard said:

not every day you see something like this

That would be close to record low 500 heights for the NEUS.  I attached the 500 from Jan 21, 1985.  Just below 480 dm at 500 over CAR, which I think is the record.  But no weenie snowstorm for a 6 year old CoastalWx (no 4-8" in the backlash ).

Also, there is a KU case from the 1960s where you had 400 m + height falls in 12 hr in the NYC area.  498 dm 500 low right over NYC!

 

[vortex95]

I can hear CoastalWx from here, "why can't the mean trough position be just 150 mi to the W!!!"

But maybe PT action from the NORLUN the 00z ECMWF is explicitly showing, which is pretty amazing it is showing it so far out.   Given the 500 low lagging the sfc low so much, this scenario is not unreasonable.  And we may have a great line of TSW+ when the strong cold front moves through initially.
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

And of the people I met, song writer Paul Williams may be one you guys know.  

Dude is a genius who has written so many familiar things.  

[mahk_webstah]

Euro AI not too interested in 5-6th except frontal squalls I think.  Clipper on the 10th and then swfe string redeveloper 14-15th.  Looks like high pressure holds to our north.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Euro AI not too interested in 5-6th except frontal squalls I think.  Clipper on the 10th and then swfe string redeveloper 14-15th.  Looks like high pressure holds to our north.

6z euro AI looked a little better. 
 

After that it gets dicey. We’re going to need to hope and pray that the -NAO is just enough to fight off the Conus torch coming. Especially in SNE. The Pacific is ugly.

[CoastalWx]

Friday night doesn’t seem like much. It gets going too late outside of an inv trough swinging down.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Kudos to the cold and dry folks, nailed it.. We wasted 2/3rd of what could have been a very memorable period.. At least we got the one big dog.  Next chance of bigger qpf looks to be around Valentines Day, as others have mentioned, hope there will be enough cold around by then.. After Valentines Day, I think most are ready for spring.. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kudos to the cold and dry folks, nailed it.. We wasted 2/3rd of what could have been a very memorable period.. At least we got the one big dog.  Next chance of bigger qpf looks to be around Valentines Day, as others have mentioned, hope there will be enough cold around by then.. After Valentines Day, I think most are ready for spring.. 

Yep. A waste unfortunately. 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kudos to the cold and dry folks, nailed it.. We wasted 2/3rd of what could have been a very memorable period.. At least we got the one big dog.  Next chance of bigger qpf looks to be around Valentines Day, as others have mentioned, hope there will be enough cold around by then.. After Valentines Day, I think most are ready for spring.. 

This overall dry pattern has been persistent as hell for quite awhile now (started back in the fall of 2024). We’ve basically seen relentless cold with very few breaks since the end of November but the dryness has continued. The only real exception was last weekend

 

 

 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

-4F  there have been at least 12 mornings below zero in Greenfield. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This overall dry pattern has been persistent as hell for quite awhile now (started back in the fall of 2024). We’ve basically seen relentless cold with very few breaks since the end of November but the dryness has continued. The only real exception was last weekend

 

 

 

 

United Stein of America. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

United Stein of America. 

You hate to see it, but I’m still praying for a dry spring and summer. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Goofus AI shows how it can be done.  Basically, the right interaction where there is just enough cold air in eastern Canada for a juicy storm.  Call it luck, ha ha.

[SnowHole413]

6 more weeks of winter !!

[mreaves]

41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You hate to see it, but I’m still praying for a dry spring and summer. 

Do you not use water?  Even if you are on municipal water, it got pretty tight last year in a lot of places.  I'm on the board of my village water system and we had to buy water for several months last year.  Right now, even though we have good snow cover and there is a lot in the mountains, I would venture a guess that the actual amount of water in the snow pack isn't all that impressive.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do you not use water?  Even if you are on municipal water, it got pretty tight last year in a lot of places.  I'm on the board of my village water system and we had to buy water for several months last year.  Right now, even though we have good snow cover and there is a lot in the mountains, I would venture a guess that the actual amount of water in the snow pack isn't all that impressive.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kudos to the cold and dry folks, nailed it.. We wasted 2/3rd of what could have been a very memorable period.. At least we got the one big dog.  Next chance of bigger qpf looks to be around Valentines Day, as others have mentioned, hope there will be enough cold around by then.. After Valentines Day, I think most are ready for spring.. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. A waste unfortunately. 

One storm does not represent a paradigm shift. Nothing comes easy (still).

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

6z euro AI looked a little better. 
 

After that it gets dicey. We’re going to need to hope and pray that the -NAO is just enough to fight off the Conus torch coming. Especially in SNE. The Pacific is ugly.

We flirt

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We flirt

You and Scooter?

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We flirt

Let's just get rid of the Pacific. It always seems to be the problem. In all seriousness, I think it'll be a relief if we stop hearing about the Pacific getting in the way.

What do we need to see and how long has this been an issue with the Pacific ( it seems like I've heard about this over the last several years getting in the way, especially when it comes to storm track for the Northeast Coast )

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Let's just get rid of the Pacific. It always seems to be the problem. In all seriousness, I think it'll be a relief if we stop hearing about the Pacific getting in the way.

What do we need to see and how long has this been an issue with the Pacific ( it seems like I've heard about this over the last several years getting in the way, especially when it comes to storm track for the Northeast Coast )

We had a good Pacific for weeks.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We had a good Pacific for weeks.

If it wasn’t for last week’s storm, most of us would be looking at a pretty piss poor winter.  Nothing I can do about it, but it’s really irritating to be wasting peak Climo with cold dry days. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Kudos to the cold and dry folks, nailed it.. We wasted 2/3rd of what could have been a very memorable period.. At least we got the one big dog.  Next chance of bigger qpf looks to be around Valentines Day, as others have mentioned, hope there will be enough cold around by then.. After Valentines Day, I think most are ready for spring.. 

Some/most may be ready for spring after V. Day…but ma nature says when she’s done.  And 2/14 is much too early for her in SNE.  Let’s not rush the 39-45 degree misery mist and drizzle that is with us from late March through all of April at the very least most every year(save 2012.. which is as rare as Feb 2015). 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If it wasn’t for last week’s storm, most of us would be looking at a pretty piss poor winter.  Nothing I can do about it, but it’s really irritating to be wasting peak Climo with cold dry days. 

Preaching to the choir. I don’t get off on cold stats so for me it’s frustrating. It took a low ramming into an arctic dome to bring the biggie but we can’t get a coastal for whatever reason. 

[MJO812]

Everything still looks fine

PNA

NAO

AO

Maybe an Archambault event 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Preaching to the choir. I don’t get off on cold stats so for me it’s frustrating. It took a low ramming into an arctic dome to bring the biggie but we can’t get a coastal for whatever reason. 

Fast flow . It’s been there all winter . It’s the Pacific 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If it wasn’t for last week’s storm, most of us would be looking at a pretty piss poor winter.  Nothing I can do about it, but it’s really irritating to be wasting peak Climo with cold dry days. 

Sometimes a signature storm saves a season. Just how it goes in SNE. We’ve done well here(not everybody feels the same, understandably).  And that 18+ inches solidified a good winter here…along with the consistent frigid weather.  10 more inches and we have our average snowfall.  

[metagraphica]

This winter sucks balls. Too F*cking cold. Other than a morbid interest, I don't care how much snow we get. 

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You and Scooter?

[mahk_webstah]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Let's just get rid of the Pacific. It always seems to be the problem. In all seriousness, I think it'll be a relief if we stop hearing about the Pacific getting in the way.

What do we need to see and how long has this been an issue with the Pacific ( it seems like I've heard about this over the last several years getting in the way, especially when it comes to storm track for the Northeast Coast )

Are you suggesting that we just fill it in maybe with concrete or something?