The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I mean its a lot heavier lift to get that thing back here to me than you. I'd almost feel good if I was in your spot

It’s pretty clear to me it’s gonna get kicked east - just based on weight of the modeling - weenie hope is that kicker isn’t modeled correctly due to lack of sampling lol- I’ve been on this board well longer than a bunch of the newer posters have been alive and I know what it means when we arrive at that scrap of hope…

[baltosquid]

Also FWIW on both the EPS and EPS-AIFS the possible kicker looks to be a bit slower than 00z

[wasnow215]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, if you compare 0z Nam to 6z, you can see that it took has taken on the precip shield as Gfs and Euro at 84hrs vs the "headed north" look of 0z.

Think about what @PSU has been saying. If everything was east it's almost impossible to come west but because we have snow to our south we have a better chance.

[aldie 22]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Too far east for Boxing Day. Jersey got smoked.

Give it time that's why I put almost in there

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z.

[wasnow215]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z.

Looks like Italy 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS compared to 0Z.

Beefing up the south but man...I don't think its going to make it to Hanover sorry guys...its probably that kicker

[87storms]

Glad I did not stay up for the 0z  suite. Definitely a classic “too many things need to go right” type of system, at least for mby. Coastal areas are a different story.

[psuhoffman]

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC.  We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC.  We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 

Any indication you see that might bring expectations for this to occur?

[Quasievil]

It forms in a perfect way to give us virtually nothing. Wow

[stormy]

Important elements may not model coalesce until 12z Friday.  

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC.  We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 

Better sampling today/tomorrow will show us where the cutoff happens?

[Ji]

It’s digging and cutting off too far south. Since once it cuts off it’s not going to lift north due to the flow over the top we need it to cut off and track across the NC/VA border not down near SC.  We just need one thing, for that upper low to trend north. 

Not one model has gotten close to doing this

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

It forms in a perfect way to give us virtually nothing. Wow

For those of us west of the Bay, Boxing day was even closer than what is depicted here.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Any indication you see that might bring expectations for this to occur?

I’d rather need a north trend than south. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Not one model has gotten close to doing this

And therein lies the rub.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Better sampling today/tomorrow will show us where the cutoff happens?

I think today is the day for me where we need to see the trends continue towards us. Hopefully we can get some at 12z!  Still right at the edge of the time frame where we can get a decent shift north on the guidance. 

[anotherman]

For those of us west of the Bay, Boxing day was even closer than what is depicted here.

It was heartbreaking. A dusting in York county and a foot two counties over.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Any indication you see that might bring expectations for this to occur?

Seems the hope index would be higher from N/S.  I'd be pretty stoked if I was near ORF or RIC.  someone posted earlier that I-95 can forget it.  Well what does that mean?  95 is a long road in the MA forum.  dont agree with everyone on 95 corridor should forget it for it's entire length.  just my 2 cents.  

[Buddy1987]

Shoot even down this way I’m worried about a south and east trend that develops and voids any significant accumulation from happening. ULL needs to almost be perfectly placed 

[Wxdavis5784]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

For those of us west of the Bay, Boxing day was even closer than what is depicted here.

I lived in Northern St. Mary's County back then and we ended up with about 4-6" from boxing day if iirc.

[jlewis1111]

You guys throwing in the towel is wild. You guys always get the north trend starting today usually. Bunch of damn snow hogs and drama queens in nova

[Quasievil]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

For those of us west of the Bay, Boxing day was even closer than what is depicted here.

I do remember that, it was brutal. Quick aside, I actually left NJ that morning in the blowing snow bomb to get to MD in the flurries. Depressing.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It was heartbreaking. A dusting in York county and a foot two counties over.

In northern AA County, every once and a while little would would start to fall steadily, then dwindle to flurries, only to rub salt in the wound. 

[Solution Man]

6 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I think today is the day for me where we need to see the trends continue towards us. Hopefully we can get some at 12z!  Still right at the edge of the time frame where we can get a decent shift north on the guidance. 

I’ll buy that

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

You guys throwing in the towel is wild. You guys always get the north trend starting today usually. Bunch of damn snow hogs and drama queens in nova

I think you should be somewhat optimistic.  Also don't think north trend is always just baked into cake.  Maybe with a SW to NE trajectory like last weekend north trend more likely.  who knows but again I would be stoked for at least something in your area.  

[jlewis1111]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I think you should be somewhat optimistic.  Also don't think north trend is always just baked into cake.  Maybe with a SW to NE trajectory like last weekend north trend more likely.  who knows but again I would be stoked for at least something in your area.  

I am but also been burnt many times on the north trend to you guys. I want everyone to get hammered. Its just funny watching you guys get your undies in wad with still 2 days to go. 

[DaleCityDave]

4 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

I am but also been burnt many times on the north trend to you guys. I want everyone to get hammered. Its just funny watching you guys get your undies in wad with still 2 days to go. 

There’s nearly four days to go and it’s clear no model is really on to what’s happening!

[psuhoffman]

I said I’d reserve judgement until today. I don’t need to see everything lock in on a big hit today but I need to see it look close enough that the typical small bleed north we see the final 72 hours will be enough.  What we need most at this point is some combo of 3 things. For the upper low to go negative slightly sooner, more separation up top so it can lift north sooner or for the whole thing to simply cut off further north.